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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Union of the Comoros’ Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument. The Comoros’ authorities should use fiscal policy to cushion the adverse effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 shock and bring the fiscal position back in line with medium-term paths once the crisis has passed. In addition to expanding very substantially healthcare spending to meet the population’s pandemic-related needs, the authorities should consider giving targeted and temporary support to the most vulnerable. Monetary policy should focus on maintaining the exchange rate peg. At the same time, the authorities should use all tools at their disposal to safeguard the stability of the banking system, including by providing liquidity to banks facing liquidity pressures and addressing loan servicing difficulties. Beyond implementing their pandemic preparedness plan and strengthening the health care system’s ability to respond to pandemic needs, the authorities are considering delaying deadlines for tax filings and temporarily lowering customs duties for certain imports. They will monitor inflation developments and maintain the exchange rate peg to the euro. The authorities will also do all they can to ease liquidity strains in the banking system. They are also are working with banks to enable targeted loan maturity extensions.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights improvement in the Comorian economy in 2017. Growth is estimated at 2.7 percent for 2017, half a percentage point higher than in the previous year. A combination of factors contributed to this outcome, notably an improved electricity situation relative to 2016, increased exports, and stronger remittance flows. However, the economy was held back by a perceived deterioration in the business climate and tensions in the financial sector. Inflation remained moderate. The near-term outlook remains challenging in the absence of further reform efforts. The authorities’ reform agenda and investment plans, undertaken in the context of their revised strategic development plan will help raise future potential growth rates.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Comorian economy’s performance improved in 2017. Growth is estimated at 2.7 percent for 2017, half a percentage point higher than in the previous year. A combination of factors contributed to this outcome, notably an improved electricity situation relative to 2016, increased exports, and stronger remittances flows. However, the economy was held back by a perceived deterioration in the business climate and tensions in the financial sector. Inflation remained moderate. The near-term outlook remains challenging in the absence of further reform efforts. The authorities’ reform agenda and investment plans, undertaken in the context of their revised strategic development plan will help raise potential growth rates going.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
PRINCIPALES QUESTIONS L’économie comorienne poursuit sa croissance, mais à un rythme ralenti. Selon les estimations, la croissance économique devrait être de 3,3 % en 2014, en raison des perturbations de la fourniture d’électricité et de la mise en œuvre plus lente que prévu du programme d’investissements publics. L’inflation est restée modérée. L’hypothèse de base des services du FMI est que la croissance du PIB réel sera en moyenne d’environ 4 % par an à moyen terme, à condition que des réformes soient mises en œuvre. L’exécution du budget 2014 a été difficile, en particulier dans la seconde partie de l’année. L’objectif a été à peu près atteint en matière de recettes, mais les ressources ont été insuffisantes pour financer une masse salariale plus élevée que prévu dans le budget à la suite du relèvement des salaires des enseignants en mars et de dépenses qui n’avaient pas été budgétisées auparavant, notamment pour les élections. Les dépenses d’investissement financées sur ressources intérieures ont été fortement limitées et des arriérés temporaires se sont accumulés au titre des salaires et de la dette extérieure. À court terme, le principal enjeu est de trouver un meilleur équilibre entre les ressources disponibles et les dépenses de manière à éviter l’accumulation d’arriérés. Les plans de dépenses doivent être fondés sur des anticipations réalistes quant aux ressources qui seront probablement disponibles. Le budget 2015 s’appuie sur ce principe, mais l’ampleur des investissements financés sur ressources intérieures est inadéquate, dans la mesure où les dépenses obligatoires au titre des salaires et des traitements ainsi que du service de la dette absorbent l’essentiel des recettes intérieures. Pour le moyen terme, il s’agit avant tout de créer l’espace budgétaire nécessaire pour réaliser les investissements d’infrastructure et les dépenses sociales, d’accélérer le passage à une croissance qui profite à tous ainsi que la création d’emplois, et de réduire la pauvreté. Les autorités doivent concentrer leurs efforts sur le renforcement de l’administration des impôts et l’amélioration de la gestion des finances publiques de manière à élargir l’espace budgétaire et à accroître la transparence. Les déficiences qui caractérisent le climat des affaires, notamment l’insuffisance des infrastructures, surtout dans le secteur de l’énergie, et les difficultés à faire respecter les contrats, constituent des défis importants.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
KEY ISSUES • The Comorian economy continues to grow although at a slightly slower pace. Economic growth in 2014 is projected at 3.3 percent, adversely affected by electricity disruptions and slower-than-expected implementation of the public investment program. Inflation has remained subdued. Staffs’ baseline assumption is that real GDP growth will average around 4 percent per annum over the medium term, provided reforms are implemented. • Implementation of the 2014 budget was challenging, particularly after mid-year. While revenues were broadly on target, resources were inadequate to meet the higher- than-budgeted wage bill resulting from an increase in teacher salaries in March and previously un-budgeted expenditures, including on elections. Domestically-financed investment spending was severely constrained and temporary arrears were incurred on salaries and external debt. • The key short-term challenge is to find a better balance between available resources and expenditures so that arrears can be avoided. Spending plans need to be based on realistic expectations of the resources likely to be available. The 2015 budget is premised on this principle but the scope for domestically-financed investment is inadequate as obligatory spending on wages and salaries and debt service absorbs most of domestic revenue. • For the medium-term the key challenges are to create fiscal space for infrastructure investment and social spending, accelerate inclusive growth and employment generation, and reduce poverty. The authorities need to focus their efforts on strengthening revenue administration and public financial management to expand fiscal space and improve transparency. Weaknesses in the business environment, including inadequate infrastructure, especially in the energy sector, and difficulties in contract enforcement represent important challenges.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for the Union of the Comoros discusses macroeconomic policies and developments of the country. The performance under the ECF-supported program through end-December has been satisfactory. All performance criteria and indicative targets for end-December 2012 have been met, with wide margins in some cases. Macroeconomic developments have been consistent with expectations under the ECF arrangement. IMF staff has proposed modifications to the structural benchmarks, and recommends completion of the fifth review under the ECF arrangement.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Dans un contexte politique plus favorable, les résultats macroéconomiques des Comores continuent de s’améliorer. L’activité économique s’intensifie, la position extérieure s’est renforcée, et de nets progrès d’assainissement des finances publiques ont été réalisés grâce une mobilisation étonnamment forte des recettes, en particulier des recettes non fiscales au titre du programme de citoyenneté économique, et grâce à une meilleure maîtrise des dépenses.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Comoros remains in debt distress, pending the achievement of the completion point under the Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative. The outlook for 2012 is broadly consistent with expectations under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. The IMF Executive Board has approved a three-year ECF arrangement to support Comoros’ medium-term economic recovery efforts. The government has continued pursuing a prudent external debt management policy. Achievement of the government’s fiscal objectives requires close adherence to the fiscal program to enhance the efficiency of tax and customs administration and to expand the tax base.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Comorian authorities have made steady progress in fiscal consolidation, reinvigorated their structural reform agenda, and gathered strong public support for sound macroeconomic policies. Macroeconomic developments have been largely positive, mostly thanks to improved policies. External competitiveness has improved step by step in the last year by the recent depreciation of the euro vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. In the medium term, the government intends to seek further gains in fiscal consolidation and to accelerate reform of public enterprises and civil service.