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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
How Do Adaptive Learning Expectations Rationalize Stronger Monetary Policy Response in Brazil?
Allan Dizioli
and
Hou Wang
This paper estimates a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes a wage and price Phillip's curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational expectation process, we also use a limited rationality process, the adaptive learning model. In this context, we show that the separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job in fitting the data in both Brazil and the USA. In addition, the estimation shows that expectations are more backward-looking and started to drift away sooner in 2021 in Brazil than in the USA. We then conduct optimal policy exercises that prescribe early monetary policy tightening in the context of positive output gaps and inflation far above the central bank target.
Keywords:
DSGE; Inflation dynamics; optimal monetary policy; Forecasting and Simulation; Bayesian estimation.; learning expectation; inflation expectation; wages expectation; Inflation; Output gap; Real wages; Wage gap; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Switzerland models the evolving behavior of the Swiss franc relative to the world’s major reserve currencies and considers possible reasons for the shifts. Economic fundamentals, including country-partners and currency of denomination of Swiss trade and finance, are likely to affect which currencies the franc co-moves with, although these factors tend to change only slowly. The behavior of the Swiss franc may have also been affected by the global financial crisis and its aftermath, as well as the shift in recent years from synchronized to divergent monetary policies by the major central banks. Identifying reserve currency blocks and the de facto behavior of currencies is an ongoing pursuit. The two dimensions of exchange regimes—the anchor currency (basket) and the degree of exchange rate flexibility—should be identified simultaneously. The implied regimes align well with Switzerland’s de facto exchange rate arrangements and monetary policy frameworks. The approach used in this paper identifies how the franc co-moves with the major reserve currencies but is agnostic about the driving forces behind these moves.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; wage; franc; currency; SNB; monetary policy; brake rule; wage gap; gap vis-à-vis; liquidity mismatch; long-run wage-productivity relationship; SNB's FX purchase; reserve portfolio; wage Phillips curve; Currencies; Wage gap; Wages; Labor productivity; Real wages; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Survey
Boletín del FMI Vol.35, No.9 mayo 2006
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
El Boletín del FMI aborda de manera específica el trabajo del FMI y los grandes temas macroeconómicos y financieros internacionales y ofrece análisis sobre la evolución en los distintos países y regiones y en el mundo; información sobre las operaciones, políticas, reformas y asistencia técnica del FMI; síntesis de las principales investigaciones económicas mundiales; datos fundamentales que no suelen estar disponibles en otras fuentes, e informes sobre debates económicos y financieros que tienen lugar dentro y fuera del FMI. Este boletín de 16 páginas, publicado 12 veces al año, está orientado a una vasta audiencia, que incluye autoridades de política económica, analistas, profesionales del mundo académico y de los medios de difusión y estudiantes. Disponible en inglés, español y francés.
Keywords:
SV; IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings; SDR; globalization sentiment
Cover IMF Survey
Bulletin du FMI vol. 35, n° 9, mai 2006
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
En mettant l’accent sur le travail du FMI et sur les grandes questions macroéconomiques et financières internationales, le Bulletin du FMI présente une analyse des développements nationaux, régionaux et mondiaux, des informations sur le travail, les politiques, les réformes et les activités d'assistance technique du FMI, les conclusions d'études de calibre mondial, des données essentielles qui ne sont souvent pas disponibles ailleurs, ainsi que des rapports sur les discussions économiques et financières au sein du FMI et ailleurs. Publié douze fois par an, ce bulletin de seize pages s'adresse à un large public : dirigeants, analystes, chercheurs, étudiants et journalistes. Disponible en anglais, français et espagnol.
Keywords:
SV; IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings; SDR; globalization sentiment
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 35, Issue 09
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Funding the IMF; Middle East and Central Asia economic outlook; Is globalization a choice?; Latin American reform; Trade conference; Aid effectiveness; Long-term interest rates in G7 countries; Wage flexibility; Joint external debt website launched.
Keywords:
SV; IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings; SDR; globalization sentiment; growth facility; fund Facility; IMF quota; PRGF arrangement; Real wages; Wage rigidity; Personal income; Long term interest rates; Labor markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Central and Eastern Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East