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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 20 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts
Patrick A. Imam
and
Christian Schmieder
We analyze how aging populations might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.
Keywords:
Aging; Demographics; Bank risk-taking; Financial Stability; IMF working paper No. 24/118; tail risk; risk preference; stability risk; solvency profile; bank assets; Commercial banks; Bank soundness; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change in an Aging World
Mr. Vimal V Thakoor
and
Engin Kara
Climate and demographic changes are two major long-term trends that are evolving simultaneously. The global population is aging, while climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of weather-related disasters and lowering productivity. This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of these three changes in a common framework. Simulation results suggest that while aging drags down the real interest rate, climate change puts upward pressure on the real interest rate and inflation. As climate change intensifies, it will be the dominant factor shaping the macroeconomic variables. This results in higher inflation and a higher debt-to-GDP ratio, requiring tighter fiscal and monetary policies. The results further suggest that economic uncertainty induced by climate change amplifies these effects of climate change.
Keywords:
Demographic change; climate change; natural disasters; simulation result; results summary; disaster shock; effects of climate change; consumption share; Consumption; Aging; Real interest rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Secular Drivers of the Natural Rate of Interest in the United States: A Quantitative Evaluation
Josef Platzer
and
Marcel Peruffo
We develop a heterogeneous agent, overlapping generations model with nonhomothetic preferences that nests several explanations for the decline in the natural rate of interest (r∗) suggested in the literature: demographic change, a slowdown in productivity growth, a rise in income inequality, and public policy. The model can account for a 2.2 percentage point (pp) decline in r∗ between 1975 and 2015, which is within the range of empirical estimates. Rising income inequality is an important driver (-0.70 pp), and together with demographic change (-0.71 pp) and the slowdown in productivity growth (-1.0 pp) explains most of the decline. Growing public debt is the major counteracting force (+0.31 pp). Permanent income inequality is of greater importance than inequality due to uninsurable income risk, and matching the degree of nonhomotheticity in consumption and savings behavior to empirical estimates is essential for this result. We predict that r∗ will reach a low of 0.38% by 2030, after which a slow reversal will begin. The natural rate will stabilize at 1% in the long run, a low level when compared with the postwar path of r∗ implied by the model. This remains true even if we take into account soaring public debt levels due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy can have considerable impact on the level of r∗ through the tax and transfer system.
Keywords:
Demographic Change; Inequality; Life-cycle; Natural Rate of Interest; Nonhomothetic Preferences; Secular Stagnation; transition path; baseline transition-path; labor income; uninsurable income risk; implied path; path of r; Nonhomothetic consumption preference; Income inequality; Income; Productivity; Consumption; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy
Daniel Baksa
and
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
The evidence on the inflation impact of aging is mixed, and there is no evidence regarding the volatility of inflation. Based on advanced economies’ data and a DSGE-OLG model, we find that aging leads to downward pressure on inflation and higher inflation volatility. Our paper is also the first, using this framework, to discuss how aging affects the transmission channels of monetary policy. We are also the first to examine aging and optimal central bank policies. As aging redistributes wealth among generations and the labor force becomes more scarce, our model suggests that aging makes monetary policy less effective and in more gray societies central banks should react more strongly to nominal variables.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; transmission mechanism; aging; monetary policy transmission; optimal monetary policy; inflation targeting; reaction function; monetary policy shock; rule parameter; price level; monetary policy rule; monetary policy reaction; Inflation; Consumption; Real interest rates; Labor supply; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan
Mr. Fei Han
Japan’s aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan.
Keywords:
WP; rate of interest; real interest rate; Demographic change; natural rate of interest; monetary policy; Japan; natural rate; interest rate gap; baseline estimate; core inflation; inflation expectation; Real interest rates; Population growth; Return on investment; Potential output; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
,
Mr. Jaewoo Lee
, and
Umang Rawat
Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; real interest rate; rate of interest; demographics; interest rates; capital account openness; world interest rate; interest rate adjustment; dependency ratio; real interest rate increase; adjustment to saving; interest rate environment; aging speed; Real interest rates; Aging; Demographic change; Long term interest rates; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle
Callum Jones
As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding ZLB on nominal rates. Demographic changes generate slow-moving trends in the real interest rate, employment, and productivity. I find that demographics alone can explain one-third of the gap between log output per capita and its linear trend in 2015. Demographics also lowered real rates, causing the ZLB to bind between 2009 and 2015, contributing to the slow recovery after the Great Recession.
Keywords:
WP; real interest rate; monetary policy; business cycle; Great Recession; Demographics; Zero Lower Bound; Forward Guidance; age-productivity profile; ZLB duration; utility function; monetary policy shock; lower bound; marginal utility; age-productivity curve; ZLB regime; productivity adjustment; ZLB constraint; adjustment cost; growth rate; Demographic change; Real interest rates; Aging
Cover IMF Working Papers
Household Consumption in Japan – Role of Income and Asset Developments
Erkki Vihriälä
We study Japanese household consumption at a disaggregated level focusing on the role of income and asset dynamics. Stagnation of real per capita consumption is widespread acrosslabor market groups, age groups and regions. Consumption-to-income ratios have been mildly increasing due to the rising share of pensioners with significant assets. Evidence therefore suggests that assets have become more important in financing consumption. However, the short-term consumption dynamics remain quite sensitive to income growth but not to asset market movements.
Keywords:
WP; consumption growth; asset variable; consumption dynamics; income concept; flexibility; labor earnings growth; inflation; consumption volume; consumption plan; Consumption; Income; Disposable income; Real interest rates; Household consumption; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
Mr. Bjoern Rother
,
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
,
Davide Lombardo
,
Risto Herrala
,
Ms. Priscilla Toffano
,
Mr. Erik Roos
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
, and
Ms. Karina Manasseh
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Keywords:
SDN; conflict country; refugee crisis; central bank; economic activity; country authorities; Middle East and North Africa; conflicts; refugees; macroeconomic policy; economic spillovers; post-conflict reconstruction; international community; MENA region; MENA country; physical capital; financial support; IMF staff calculation; growth potential; MENA conflict country; Labor markets; Infrastructure; Inflation; Middle East; North Africa; Global; East Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Aid and Growth at the Regional Level
Axel Dreher
and
Steffen Lohmann
This paper brings the aid effectiveness debate to the sub-national level. We hypothesize the nonrobust results regarding the effects of aid on development in the previous literature to arise due to the effects of aid being insufficiently large to measurably affect aggregate outcomes. Using geocoded data for World Bank aid to a maximum of 2,221 first-level administrative regions (ADM1) and 54,167 second-level administrative regions (ADM2) in 130 countries over the 2000-2011 period, we test whether aid affects development, measured as nighttime light growth. Our preferred identification strategy exploits variation arising from interacting a variable that indicates whether or not a country has passed the threshold for receiving IDA's concessional aid with a recipient region's probability to receive aid, in a sample of 478 ADM1 regions and almost 8,400 ADM2 regions from 21 countries. Controlling for the levels of the interacted variables, the interaction provides a powerful and excludable instrument. Overall, we find significant correlations between aid and growth in ADM2 regions, but no causal effects.
Keywords:
WP; effect of aid; IDA-threshold effect; level of significance; term growth-effect; Aid Effectiveness; Geo-coding; World Bank; rainfall growth; aid-growth regression; growth OLS; IDA threshold; Agroindustries; Personal income; Population growth; Africa; Central Asia; South Asia; Global