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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper investigates skills mismatch and active labor market policy in Lithuania. Wage flexibility is underpinned by one of the lowest densities of trade union and employer organization and the rare occurrence of collective bargaining. Thus, wage setting largely happens at the firm level. Real wages and productivity have been traditionally closely linked and temporary deviations have been self-correcting. In contrast, structural unemployment has been traditionally high, although it appears to be gradually falling. Large structural unemployment can have a significant long-term impact on potential growth and, therefore, on employment. Lithuania suffers from relative labor shortage for high-skilled workers and surplus of low- and medium-skilled workers. Thus, there are labor shortages in skill-intensive sectors. Lithuania has shown a sharp rise in skills mismatch for the country in the aftermath of the crisis. Vacancy rates and wage growth by sectors also suggest an excess supply of lower skilled workers and shortage of high-skilled ones.
Nina Biljanovska
and
Mr. Damiano Sandri
Over the last few decades, Brazil has experienced relatively weak economic growth due to stagnant productivity. To boost productivity, Brazil should embark on an ambitious structural reform process. In doing so, it is crucial that authorities select a few reform priorities to avoid dispersing political capital on an overly broad reform agenda. The paper aims to identify Brazil’s reform priorities in two steps. First, it estimates the impact that different reforms have on Brazil’s productivity. Second, it analyzes survey data to assess the extent of public support for reforms. The results show that banking sector reforms would generate the largest productivity gains and have the highest level of public support. Moreover, they would also be relatively easy to legislate and generate significant fiscal savings.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses findings of the fourth review under an Extended Fund Facility Arrangement with Portugal. One year into the program, the authorities are making progress in reducing economic imbalances. The delicate balance between orderly deleveraging and improving competitiveness also remains in place. A turnaround in investor sentiment has nonetheless proved elusive, reflecting the formidable challenges that remain. Bank deposits remain stable and funding continues to be supported by euro system lending. Market sentiment has improved, although spreads remain high and volatile.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues Paper focuses on structural reforms and fiscal devaluation in Italy. Italy’s economy has a number of important strengths. Despite these strengths, Italy’s economic performance has lagged behind its peers. The authorities’ reform plans are under way in different sectors of the country. In most cases, if reforms go in the right direction, their impact would depend on consistent and prompt implementation. The model-based analysis also suggests that the potential gains to the economy from deeper reforms can be sizable.
International Monetary Fund
Spain’s economy is facing severe challenges. Financial market tensions increased sharply in the wake of the Greek crisis. Policy should focus on rebalancing of the economy and securing market confidence. Ambitious fiscal consolidation is under way, but achievement of the targets needs to be made more credible and complemented by bold pension reform. A radical overhaul of the labor market is urgent. Progress in recent years on product and service market reform should continue. The banking sector remains sound but is under pressure.
International Monetary Fund
This paper summarizes the Fund staff’s understanding of the modalities that the G-20 members intend to follow in their mutual assessment process and what they have requested for this purpose from the Fund. It also discusses the legal and policy implications of the Fund’s involvement in this exercise, but without prejudging the broader discussion of the Fund’s mandate the Board will have in the coming months. As the G-20 process is still evolving, the precise nature of the Fund’s involvement, in particular its inputs, will become clearer over time. The Executive Board will be kept informed as the process develops.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines Israel’s monetary policy regime with an eye toward developing some understanding of why breaches have been occurring and how to address them. The paper provides a brief history of Israel’s experience with inflation and inflation targeting. It examines several institutional aspects of inflation targeting and compares Israel with other emerging market regimes. Various procedural issues associated with implementing an inflation-targeting regime in Israel are examined. The paper also analyzes active labor market policies in Israel.
International Monetary Fund
This 2001 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Spain grew by more than 4 percent annually during 1997–2000—reflecting strong consumption, competitive exports, wage moderation, and supply conditions enhanced by structural reforms. Annualized real GDP growth was about 2 percent in the third quarter of 2001, compared with 2.5 percent and 3 percent, respectively, in the second and first quarters. Industrial production has been decreasing during most of 2001, and in November stood about 1 percent lower than a year before.
International Monetary Fund
Improved terms of trade and sound macroeconomic policies have helped strengthen Kuwait's financial situation. The government should move forcefully to implement its structural reform program. Monetary policy is rightly focused on maintaining the credibility of the pegged exchange rate arrangement and achieving price stability. The pegged exchange arrangement, open capital account, and prudent fiscal and monetary policies have served Kuwait well, keeping inflation low and reinforcing confidence in the economy. The government has been commended for maintaining a generous foreign assistance program.