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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that India is on track to be one of the fastest growing major economies in the world this year, underpinned by prudent macroeconomic policies. Nonetheless, the economy is facing global headwinds, including a global growth slowdown in an increasingly fragmented world. Policy priorities should focus on replenishing fiscal buffers, securing price stability, maintaining financial stability, and accelerating inclusive growth through comprehensive structural reforms while preserving debt sustainability. Elevated public debt calls for ambitious medium-term consolidation, while continuing to prioritize capital spending. This should be complemented with a sound medium-term fiscal framework to promote transparency and accountability and align policies with India’s development goals. In order to reap the benefits of demographic tailwinds, structural policy should focus on promoting high quality job-rich growth, underpinned by comprehensive reform in areas of education, health, land, agriculture, and labor markets, including measures to boost female labor force participation. Continuing investment in infrastructure, strengthening governance, and enhancing a sound business environment are critical.
Keywords:
policy priority; WPI base year; infrastructure program; CPI series; household inflation expectation; gross investment; policy recommendation; financial asset; FDI regime; fund approval; CPI weight; Inflation; Government debt management; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook: Europe, April 2023
Regional Economic Outlook: Europe, April 2023
Europe’s Balancing Act: Taming Inflation without a Recession
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth has tumbled across Europe, inflation remains too high, and financial sector risks have materialized. Taming sticky inflation while avoiding financial stress and a recession will require tighter macroeconomic policies—tailored to changing financial conditions, stronger financial regulation and supervision, and bolder supply-side reforms that heal scars from the COVID-19 and energy crises.

Keywords:
Europe; regional outlook; economic growth; recession; financial stability; inflation; Russia’s war in Ukraine; COVID-19; financial sector risks; financial stress; financial regulation; energy; Türkiye earthquakes; housing market risks; Taylor Rule; European banking sector; labor; fiscal policy; monetary policy; financial policy; recovery; European economy; inflation expectation; rate surprise; growth-inflation trade-off; headline inflation; ECB monetary policy; price cap; central bank inflation target; target rule; inflation risk; Energy prices; Central bank policy rate; Inflation targeting; Housing prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brazil: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened Brazil’s longstanding vulnerabilities of low potential growth, high income inequality, and weak fiscal position. While the authorities mounted a rapid and effective response to support the economy and protect the poor and vulnerable, the virus outbreak is yet to be brought under control. Outlook and Risks. Real GDP is projected to contract by 5.8 percent in 2020 followed by a partial recovery to 2.8 percent in 2021. With weak domestic demand, inflation is likely to end 2020 substantially below target. Debt is projected to jump to 100 percent of GDP, due to a 10.6 percentage point deterioration in the primary deficit in 2020, and continue to rise over the next five years. The high level of debt exposes Brazil to confidence shocks. Securing congressional passage of structural reforms to raise potential growth remains challenging.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; inflation expectation; reform agenda; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; policy stance; debt sustainability risk; firm commitment; COVID-19; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On May 1, 2020, the Executive Board approved an RFI (US$643 million, 67.3 percent of quota), to support the urgent needs of the Ecuadorean economy in the wake of COVID-19 crisis, and the authorities cancelled the three-year Extended Fund Facility arrangement (US$ 4.2 billion, 435 percent of quota). The macroeconomic situation has since deteriorated, prompting the authorities to request a 27-month EFF of SDR 4.615 billion (about US$6.5 billion, 661 percent of quota), to help restore macroeconomic stability, support the most vulnerable groups, and advance the structural reform agenda initiated under the previous EFF.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ecuador; EFF arrangement; plan; COPLAFIP regulation; program profile; dollarization regime; EFF program; high-frequency indicator; Debt service; Oil prices; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Costs of Macroprudential Deleveraging in a Liquidity Trap
Mr. Jiaqian Chen
,
Daria Finocchiaro
,
Jesper Lindé
, and
Karl Walentin
We examine the effects of various borrower-based macroprudential tools in a New Keynesian environment where both real and nominal interest rates are low. Our model features long-term debt, housing transaction costs and a zero-lower bound constraint on policy rates. We find that the long-term costs, in terms of forgone consumption, of all the macroprudential tools we consider are moderate. Even so, the short-term costs differ dramatically between alternative tools. Specifically, a loan-to-value tightening is more than twice as contractionary compared to loan-to-income tightening when debt is high and monetary policy cannot accommodate.
Keywords:
WP; lower bound; transmission mechanism; long-term debt; Household debt; Zero lower bound; New Keynesian model; Collateral and borrowing constraints; Mortgage interest deductibility; Housing prices; DSTI constraint; LTV tightening; LTV constraint; LTI economy; Housing; Consumption; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Myanmar: Technical Assistance Report-Banking Supervision and Regulation
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
At the request of the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM), the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, visited Yangon for a series of missions in 2018 and early 2019 on banking supervision. The objectives of the work were to support the CBM in the development of bank regulation and supervision, its introduction of a more risk-based approach to supervision. The Guide to Risk-Based Supervision sets out approaches to risk assessment and risk mitigation based on international practices. The key risks identified in the Myanmar context include legal, regulatory and reputational risk, strategic risk and group and related parties’ risk as well as credit, market, operational, and liquidity risks. The CBM is implementing the new approach over the period until 2020. While perfecting a complete risk-based approach will take years, the CBM is committed to implementation and is already undertaking risk assessments using the new risk matrix tool as examinations come due.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; supervision; CBM; risk assessment; FISD; risk management; supervision process; FISD staff; offsite supervision; CAMEL rating guide; onsite supervision unit; FISD review staff number; parent bank development; supervision framework; supervision guide; capital adequacy; enforcement power; Risk-based supervision; Bank supervision; Risk mitigation in revenue administration; Foreign banks; Bank risk management
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Italy: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Italy
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2020 Article IV Consultation with Italy reflects discussions with the Italian authorities in January 2020 and is based on the information available as of January 28, 2020. It focuses on Italy’s medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. It, therefore, does not cover the outbreak or the related policy response, which has since become the overarching near-term priority. The outbreak has greatly amplified uncertainty and downside risks around the outlook. Staff is closely monitoring this health crisis and will continue to work on assessing its impact and the related policy response in Italy and globally. The overarching challenges are to raise growth and enhance resilience. The IMF staff projects growth in Italy to be the lowest in the European Union over the next five years. High public debt remains a key source of vulnerability. Substantial progress has been made in strengthening bank balance sheets, but important weaknesses remain. In order to durably raise growth and reduce vulnerabilities, Italy needs faster potential growth and medium-term fiscal consolidation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; IMF staff calculation; Italy; GDP ratio; staffs projection; staffs recommendation; consultation discussion; Income; Labor costs; Nonperforming loans; Global; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Safeguards Assessment—2019 Update
Mr. George M Kabwe
,
Elie Chamoun
,
Riaan van Greuning
,
Mowele Mohlala
, and
Ms. Julia Cardoso
Safeguards assessments are a key pillar of the risk management arrangements for IMF lending. Safeguards assessments aim to mitigate the risks of misuse of Fund resources and misreporting of program monetary data under Fund arrangements. Safeguards assessment reports are confidential and therefore the IMF Executive Board is provided with a periodic report on safeguards activities on a biennial basis, in addition to high-level summaries in member country staff reports on key findings and recommendations. This update on safeguards activity covers the period May 2017 to end-April 2019 (the period).
Keywords:
PP; central bank; governance; audit; risk management framework; lending; governance arrangement; central bank participant; central bank autonomy provision; central bank safeguards framework; central bank authority; Internal audit; Central bank governance; External audit; Auditing; Monetary statistics; Global; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; West Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Informality, Frictions, and Macroprudential Policy
Moez Ben Hassine
and
Mr. Nooman Rebei
We analyze the effects of macroprudential policies through the lens of an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to developing markets. In particular, we explicitly introduce informality in the labor and goods markets within a small open economy embedding financial frictions, nominal and real rigidities, labor search and matching, and an explicit banking sector. We use the estimated version of the model to run welfare analysis under optimized monetary and macroprudential rules. Results show that although informality reduces the efficiency of macroprudential policies following a convex fashion, combining the latter with an inflation targeting objective could be beneficial.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; monetary policy; welfare gain; physical capital; inflation rate; adjustment cost; open economy; production function; interest rate rule; marginal utility; inflation targeting policy; nominal exchange rate; demand shock; Macroprudential policy; Self-employment; Consumption; Housing
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Greece: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Greece discusses that public debt is projected to trend down over the next decade, though long-term sustainability is not assured under realistic macro-fiscal assumptions. Still-weak bank balance sheets act as a drag on growth prospects and pose significant fiscal and financial stability risks. These and other factors leave Greece vulnerable to a range of external and domestic shocks. Greece’s prospects for improved living standards and economic convergence within the Euro Area (EA) depend on implementing a critical mass of inter-related fiscal, financial, and structural policy reforms. In order to achieve better growth and social outcomes, the fiscal policy mix should be improved, with more emphasis on investment and targeted social spending and lower direct taxes, backed by reforms in revenue administration and public financial management. Greece’s success within the currency union critically hinges on narrowing its structural competitiveness gap. Policies should focus on productivity enhancement through improved labor market flexibility, more effective labor activation policies, stronger institutions, and business deregulation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; reform; cornerstone program-era labor market reform; reform implementation; bank balance balance sheet; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; growth objective; money market rate; government program; authorities plan; Loans; Fiscal stance; Tax administration core functions; Global