Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 1,842 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Society and Social Sciences x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Global Financial Stability Notes
Pension Funds and Financial Stability
This Global Financial Stability Note examines the growth of the pension fund sector and the potential financial stability implications. Historically, pension funds have been seen as a contributor to financial stability because of their long-term and well-diversified liabilities. However, the sector has undergone significant structural shifts accelerated by a prolonged period of low interest rates, increasing its exposure to traditional risks while introducing emerging risks; this is reflected in growing intra-financial sector interconnectedness and exposure to long-term sovereign bonds. The recent transition to higher interest rates should be positive for the pension sector, albeit its pace and abruptness has been associated with liquidity stress and contagion risks in some countries.
Keywords:
Pension Funds; Financial Stability; Assets; Risks; Pension Plans; major pension fund sector; IMF Library; major pension savings market; structural liquidity; asset-liability duration mismatch; risk analysis; Pension spending; Pensions; Financial sector stability; Liquidity risk; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Czech Republic is evolving from a heavily manufacturing-based, export-oriented hub to a more mature and diversified economy. Non-auto manufacturing, energy, and construction, once important Czech engines of growth, have run out of steam, hampered by decelerating productivity growth, higher energy costs, and sluggish demand. The auto industry has shown resilience so far, but the required transition to electric vehicles and exposure to foreign competition are set to exert significant pressures in the coming years. After stagnating in 2022-23, the Czech economy is slowly recovering, as consumer spending is sustained by a rebound in real wages. Growth is poised to gain momentum as the policy mix becomes more supportive of economic activity and external demand gradually strengthens. Concrete actions should focus on facilitating the allocation of labor towards higher value-added sectors and firms, addressing the gender pay gap to boost labor participation, reducing administrative burden and red tape, accelerating digitalization, and promoting a more ambitious green transition.
Keywords:
currency of the Czech Republic; FSAP update; FSAP participation; services inflation; managing inflation risk; Inflation; Productivity; Labor markets; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kosovo: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights recent trends in the Kosovo labor market and emigration. Like other Western Balkan countries, Kosovo experienced a sharp decline in population over the previous decade, as emigration increased. Using a structural model of the labor market and migration, the paper examines the potential impact of further EU integration. While lower migration costs hurt the economy, productivity convergence brought on by EU integration has an offsetting impact by increasing wages, lowering unemployment, and increase immigration. Policy simulations show that policymakers have a diverse set of tools—including structural reforms, active labor market policies, business support, and labor participation support—to boost potential and support the labor market. A key result from the policy simulations is that, while the policies target various stages of the labor market, they have similar macroeconomic impacts. In this regard, it is important for policymakers to focus on policies with the largest potential impact relative to the cost of implementation. Additionally, policies should be combined with careful monitoring and updating to ensure that they remain effective and efficient.
Keywords:
gender wage gap; ECB monetary policy PASSTHROUGH; EU integration; women wage; ECB policy rate Passthrough; wage gender gap; Pensions; Pension spending; Labor markets; Digitalization; Public employment; Europe; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy and Inflation Scares
Christopher J. Erceg
,
Jesper Lindé
, and
Mathias Trabandt
A salient feature of the post-COVID inflation surge is that economic activity has remained resilient despite unfavorable supply-side developments. We develop a macroeconomic model with nonlinear price and wage Phillips curves, endogenous intrinsic indexation and an unobserved components representation of a cost-push shock that is consistent with these observations. In our model, a persistent large adverse supply shock can lead to a persistent inflation surge while output expands if the central bank follows an inflation forecast-based policy rule and thus abstains from hiking policy rates for some time as it (erroneously) expects inflationary pressures to dissipate quickly. A standard linearized formulation of our model cannot account for these observations under identical assumptions. Our nonlinear framework implies that the standard prescription of "looking through" supply shocks is a good policy for small shocks when inflation is near the central bank's target, but that such a policy may be quite risky when economic activity is strong and large shocks drive inflation well above target. Moreover, our model implies that the economic costs of "going the last mile" – i.e. a tight stance aimed at returning inflation quickly to target – can be substantial.
Keywords:
Inflation Dynamics; New Keynesian Model; Inflation Risk; Monetary Policy; Linearized Model; Nonlinear Model; State-Dependent Pricing; cost-push shock; policy rule; COVID inflation surge; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Supply shocks; Central bank policy rate; Labor markets
Cover Policy Papers
2024 Review Of The Fund’s Transparency Policy And Open Archives Policy
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
On November 15, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy and approved a number of reforms. As an international institution, making important documents available to the public on timely basis enhances the IMF’s credibility, accountability, and effectiveness and is critical to fulfill its mandate of promoting global economic and financial stability. While transparency at the IMF is achieved through a range of policies and practices, the Transparency Policy and the Open Archives Policy form the core elements of the IMF’s transparency framework. The Fund has come a long way since the inception of these policies in the early nineties. Most Board documents are now published, published more quickly, and under more consistent and evenhanded application of modification rules. The information available in the Fund’s archives has increased and is more easily accessible to the public. While experience suggests that these policies are effective in delivering on their objectives, the landscape in which the Fund operates has evolved since these policies were last reviewed in 2013. In a more interconnected and shock-prone world the pace with which policymakers need to make decisions has accelerated and the expectations of stakeholders on the availability and timeliness of the Fund’s analysis and policy advice has grown. Against this backdrop, the 2024 Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy focuses on targeted reforms to (i) support faster publication of board documents and communications of Board’s decisions; (ii) strengthen the rules and processes to modify Board documents prior to publication; and (iii) allow faster release of some documents in the Fund’s archives accessible to the public. The reforms further clarify the scope and objectives of these policies, their implementation processes, and how to strengthen knowledge sharing. The review was supported by data analysis as well as surveys and consultations with key stakeholders, including Executive Directors, country authorities, IMF missions chiefs, and civil society organizations as detailed in the three background papers accompanying this 2024 review.
Keywords:
Accountability; Archives; Communication; Independence; Lending; Modification Rules; Publication; Surveillance Transparency; TRANSPARENCY Policy; staff report; country staff report; Transparency Policy review; policy recommendation; Reputational risk; Poverty reduction strategy; Multilateral development institutions; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Türkiye: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Türkiye
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that a decisive shift in economic policies over the past year has tightened Türkiye’s overall policy stance. A significant tightening of macroeconomic policy since mid-2023 has substantially reduced crisis risks. Tighter financial conditions are weighing on domestic demand and inflation has fallen. Tax and expenditure measures partly dampened an expansionary fiscal impulse and the commitment to stronger incomes policies has strengthened credibility. The policy turnaround has reduced economic imbalances and revived confidence. Headline inflation has fallen as tighter financial conditions are weighing on domestic demand. Under the authorities’ gradual policy adjustment, inflation is expected to further decline. Risks around the baseline are significant and tilted to the downside. They include stronger-than-expected wage and price inertia, a reversal of capital flows, higher global energy prices, and escalating geopolitical tensions. Significant financial and external vulnerabilities remain. The authorities’ gradual approach to fighting inflation prolongs the period during which risks might occur.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; IFC portfolio implementation; WB program; WBG portfolio; authorities project growth; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Fiscal stance; Minimum wages; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that boosting labor supply, containing public expenditure pressures, and raising productivity will be required for Norway to be able to continue its strong economic performance and preserve its welfare model. A recent White Paper by the Ministry of Finance rightly raises these key issues facing Norway’s economy in the longer term. Real gross domestic product growth slowed in 2023 and is expected to gradually rebound in the near term as private domestic demand strengthens supported by higher real incomes. Tight macroprudential policies should remain in place to mitigate systemic vulnerabilities. The financial system appears resilient and banking system buffers are strong. Long-term fiscal challenges should be more forcefully addressed. Norway has the largest proportion of the population on disability-related benefits among the organisation for economic co-operation and development countries, and reforming costly and distortionary social benefit systems is possibly the most important and politically difficult reform pending. Although Norway boasts one of the highest levels of labor productivity among its peers, it has slowed faster than in other countries. To reverse this trend, conditions should be improved to facilitate sectoral reallocation as well as innovation and technology adoption.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; holdings of SDR; monetary policy stance; inflation pressure; consumer price inflation; Inflation; Labor markets; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues Paper analyzes potential macro-financial risks from cross-sectoral exposures in Uganda by leveraging on the Balance Sheet Approach framework. It presents evidence on the macro-financial linkages in Uganda using the Network Map and Financial Input-Output approaches. On the one hand, the Network Map analysis shows the cross-sectoral exposures in which potential build-up of macro-financial vulnerabilities may arise. On the other hand, the Financial Input-Output tool simulates relevant scenarios in the context of Ugandan economy such as currency depreciation and increases in government interest payments on debt held by banks. The purpose of the scenario exercises is to strengthen the monitoring of the developments in key economic sectors in Uganda. While the banking sector, which dominates the Ugandan financial system, remains fundamentally sound, there are pockets of vulnerabilities resulting from the growing sovereign-bank nexus and cross-border exposures of the Near Field Communication technology sector which require close vigilance.
Keywords:
B. monetary policy framework; reducing job search time; policy rate; youth employment trend; NFC sector; C. youth employment trend; Policy rate response; bank Lending rate; Central bank policy rate; Exchange rates; Women; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Botswana: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses the rationale for and design of a new Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) in Botswana. It reviews the causes of declining financial reserves and calculates fiscal targets that would be needed to achieve insurance and intergenerational equity objectives. While debt ratios have been steady, the government has financed these deficits by drawing down its assets. Intergenerational equity may be better served by creating financial assets, rather than through investment spending, although the two are not mutually exclusive. Botswana has tended to allocate resource revenues primarily to physical and human investment. Before discussing SWF design, it is important to consider the level of savings that the government requires to achieve its policy objectives. There are many reasons why a government may want to generate savings and manage them in a SWF. IMF concludes that a SWF could provide a useful institutional framework to support rebuilding buffers, but achieving significant savings to meaningfully fund an SWF would require much tighter fiscal policy than has been observed in recent years.
Keywords:
protection system; pula fund; research support; government investment account; C. financing social protection; Income inequality; Social protection spending; Fiscal rules; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Singapore: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Singapore
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Singapore highlights that following a slowdown in 2023, growth is projected to recover gradually to 2.1 percent in 2024. After reaching 6.1 percent in 2022, inflation has steadily declined to 2.7 percent in April 2024. The pace of disinflation has nonetheless been gradual, with signs of persistent price pressures including from a tight labor market. With risks to global growth now broadly balanced, downside risks to growth outlook have diminished relative to last year, but Singapore remains vulnerable to a deepening of geo-economic fragmentation. Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. The broadly neutral fiscal stance relative to 2023 will complement the tight monetary policy stance in achieving price stability, while targeted support to vulnerable households and firms will provide temporary relief from high costs of living and business. Singapore’s financial sector remains resilient with solid capital and liquidity buffers, though vigilance against pockets of vulnerabilities is warranted, including from potential systemic risks arising from the housing market. In this context, the tight macroprudential policy stance remains appropriate.
Keywords:
article IV consultation discussion; FSAP update; Singapore economy; CPI-All Items inflation; disinflation trend; Labor markets; Inflation; Artificial intelligence; Liquidity requirements; Global; Asia and Pacific