Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 63 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Iran, Islamic Republic of x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Building Resilience and Fostering Sustainable Growth
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the combined effects of global headwinds, domestic challenges, and geopolitical risks weigh on economic momentum, and the outlook is highly uncertain. Growth is set to slow this year in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, although migration, trade, and financial inflows following Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, growth is set to moderate slightly this year. Looking ahead, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to improve in 2024 and 2025 as some factors weighing on growth this year gradually dissipate, including the temporary oil production cuts. But growth is expected to remain subdued over the forecast horizon amid persistent structural hurdles. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, economic growth is projected to slow next year and over the medium term as the boost to activity from real and financial inflows from Russia gradually fades and deep-seated structural challenges remain unsolved. Inflation is broadly easing, in line with globally declining price pressures, although country-specific factors—including buoyant wage growth in some Caucasus and Central Asia countries—and climate-related events continue to make their mark. Despite some improvement since April, the balance of risks to the outlook remains on the downside. In this context, expediting structural reforms is crucial to boost growth and strengthen resilience, while tight monetary and fiscal policies remain essential in several economies to durably bring down inflation and ensure public debt sustainability.

Keywords:
growth; inflation; public debt; external financing; commodity prices; structural reforms; investment; labor productivity; financial stability; stress testing; governance reform; GCC country; credit market reform; government effectiveness; reform package; Policy space; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Credit; Labor force participation; Middle East and Central Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa; oil exporter; IMF staff calculation; CCA bank; sovereign-bank nexus; Fiscal stance; Current account balance; Commercial banks; Oil exports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Nature of Islamic Banking and Solvency Stress Testing - Conceptual Considerations
Andreas Jobst
and
Mr. Juan Sole
This paper provides a conceptual overview of key aspects of the design and implementation of solvency stress testing of Islamic banks. Based on existing regulatory standards and prudential practice, the paper explains how Islamic finance principles and their impact on various risk drivers affect the capital assessment of asset-oriented financial intermediation under stress. The formal specification of these risk factors helps operationalize and integrate the stress testing of Islamic banks within established frameworks for financial stability analysis.
Keywords:
WP; stress testing; Islamic banking; Islamic finance principles; capital adequacy; shari’ah compliance.; Islamic bank; rate of return; market risk; operating income; interest rate; deposit base; financial system; asset performance; liabilities consist; Market risk; Credit risk; Islamic finance; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Southeast Asia; Africa; counterparty risk of a bank; DCR bank; investment risk reserve; investment risk; counterparty risk; asset impairment; E. market risk
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroprudential Policies, Economic Growth, and Banking Crises
Mohamed Belkhir
,
Samy Ben Naceur
,
Bertrand Candelon
, and
Jean-Charles Wijnandts
Using a sample that covers more than 100 countries over the 2000-2017 period, we assess the impact of macroprudential policies on financial stability. In particular, we examine whether the activation of macroprudential policies is conducive to a lower incidence of systemic banking crises. Our empirical setup is designed to account for the potential direct and indirect effects that macroprudential policies can have on banking crises. We find that while macro-prudential policies exert a direct stabilizing effect, they also have an indirect destabilizing effect, which works through the depressing of economic growth. A Generalized Impulse Response Function analysis of a dynamic system composed of the probability of a banking crisis and economic growth reveals, however, that macroprudential policies have a positive net effect on financial stability (lower likelihood of systemic banking crises).
Keywords:
WP; policy; policy tightening; Macroprudential Policies; Banking crises; Economic Growth; prudential policy; macroprudential policy; crisis probability; macropru-dential policy; crisis index; tools lead; countercyclical policy tool; banking crisis database; policy instrument; policy tool; macropudential policy; Macroprudential policy; Systemic crises; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; aggregate mpi
Cover IMF Working Papers
Business Cycle with Bank Intermediation in Oil Economies
Mr. Hamid R Tabarraei
,
Hamed Ghiaie
, and
Asghar Shahmoradi
The structural model in this paper proposes a micro-founded framework that incorporates an active banking sector with an oil-producing sector. The primary goal of adding a banking sector is to examine the role of an interbank market on shocks, introduce a national development fund and study its link to the banking sector and the government. The government and the national development fund directly play key roles in the propagation of the oil shock. In contrast, the banking sector and the labor market, through perfect substitution between the oil and non-oil sectors, have major indirect impacts in spreading shocks.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; development fund; interest rate; Oil-exporting countries; Banking; Oil-Reserve Fund; DSGE; adjustment cost; oil price shock; oil revenue; lending branch; central bank lending; cost of capital; oil firm; oil price volatility; capital stock stock-building; Oil sector; Oil prices; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Global; oil economy; market clearing
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Iran: 2018 Article IV Consultation - Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Iran
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real GDP growth of Iran is expected to reach 4.3 percent in 2017/18. In the first half of 2017/18, recovery broadened to the non-oil sector, aided by supportive fiscal and monetary policies and a recovery in construction and services activity. The unemployment rate declined to 11.7 percent in the first half of 2017/18, but remained particularly high for youth and women. Inflation averaged 9.9 percent during the first 11 months of 2017/18 aided by moderation in food prices and stable administered prices. Real GDP growth is expected to ease to 4 percent in 2018/19 and is forecast to average 4.5 percent over the medium-term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Iran; growth; rate; exchange rate; CBI bill; banking system; balance of payments data; CBI lending; IMF staff calculation; liquidity growth; Oil; gas and mining taxes; External sector statistics; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Iran: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Iran
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights a rebound in economic growth in the Islamic Republic of Iran over the course of 2016–17 based on higher oil production. Real GDP grew 7.4 percent in the first half of 2016–17, rebounding from the 2015–16 recession. However, growth in the non-oil sector averaged 0.9 percent, despite having picked up in the second quarter, reflecting continued difficulties in access to financing and domestic financial sector and structural weaknesses. Growth is projected to stabilize at 4.5 percent over the medium term as the recovery broadens. The current account is forecast to remain in surplus as higher exports offset the pickup in imports related to investment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; Iran; reserve asset; fund; arrears; reserve asset position; fund TA; target inflation range; payment commitment; government arrears; aid job creation; Inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Oil; gas and mining taxes; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes impediments to correspondent banking with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Even though international nuclear sanctions were lifted January 16, 2016, Iranian banks face protracted difficulties in reentering the international financial system through correspondent relationships with global banks. Significant challenges continue to prevent Iranian banks from fully reconnecting with global banks. These challenges relate mostly to remaining sanctions from the United States; the regulatory enforcement environment; and significant deficiencies in Iran’s Anti–Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism framework, including Iranian companies’ lack of transparency. Domestic policy reforms can potentially facilitate reconnection to non-US global banks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Iran; rate; WHT rate; monetary policy; U.S person; private sector employment; CBI bill; tax system; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Withholding tax; Inflation; Labor markets; Income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Are Reference Rates For?
Mr. Divya Kirti
What is the precise role of reference rates? Why does it matter if LIBOR was manipulated? To address these questions, I analyze the use of reference rates in floating-rate loans and interestrate derivatives in the context of lending relationships. I develop a simple framework combining maturity transformation with three key frictions which generate meaningful funding risk and a rationale for risk management. Reference rates like LIBOR mitigate contractual incompleteness, facilitating management of funding risk. As bank funding costs move with bank credit risk, it makes sense for the reference rate to have a bank credit risk component. Manipulation can add noise, reducing the usefulness of reference rates for this purpose.
Keywords:
WP; reference rate; risk tolerance; Reference rates; interest rate risk; floating rate; interest-rate derivative; total utility; Hedging; Interbank rates; Credit risk; Loans; Credit; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Italy: Detailed Assessment Report on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This report provides a summary of the anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) measures in place in Italy as at the date of the onsite visit. It analyzes the level of compliance with the Financial Action Task Force recommendations and the level of effectiveness of Italy's AML/CFT system, and provides recommendations on how the system could be strengthened. Italy has a mature and sophisticated AML/CFT regime, with a correspondingly well-developed legal and institutional framework. Law enforcement agencies access, use, and develop good quality financial intelligence. Financial sector supervisors have been using a risk-based approach to varying degrees, but their supervisory tools could be improved.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; TF risk; organized crime; predicate offense; financial system; bank account; extremist group; PIE auditor; risk management; beneficial owner; parent company; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Legal support in revenue administration; Tax evasion; Corruption; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Arab Emirates: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that United Arab Emirates has continued to benefit from its perceived safe haven status and large fiscal and external buffers that have helped limit negative spillovers from lower oil prices, sluggish global growth, and volatility in emerging market economies. Non-oil growth remained robust at 4.8 percent in 2014, driven by construction. The economic outlook is expected to moderate amid lower oil prices. Non-oil growth is projected to slow to 3.4 percent in 2015, before increasing to 4.6 percent by 2020, supported by the implementation of mega projects and private investment in the run-up to Expo 2020.
Keywords:
U.A.E dirham; IMF staff estimate; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; government deficit financing; Oil prices; Loans; Commercial banks; Liquidity requirements; Global