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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 56 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy and COVID-19
Michal Brzoza-Brzezina
,
Marcin Kolasa
, and
Krzysztof Makarski
We study the macroeconomic effects of the COVID-19 epidemic in a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium setup with nominal rigidities. We evaluate various containment policies and show that they allow to dramatically reduce the welfare cost of the disease. Then we investigate the role that monetary policy, in its capacity to manage aggregate demand, should play during the epidemic. According to our results, treating the observed output contraction as a standard recession leads to overly expansionary policy. Finally, we check how central banks should resolve the trade-off between stabilizing the economy and containing the epidemic. If no administrative restrictions are in place, the second motive prevails and, despite the deep recession, optimal monetary policy is in fact contractionary. Conversely, if sufficient containment measures are introduced, central bank interventions should be expansionary and help stabilize economic activity.
Keywords:
COVID-19; Epidemics; Containment measures; Monetary policy; containment policy; containment measure; optimal monetary policy; epidemic model; monetary policy stance; Consumption; Economic recession; Inflation
Cover Departmental Papers
Policy Advice to Asia in the COVID-19 Era
Changyong Rhee
and
Katsiaryna Svirydzenka
The Asia-Pacific region was the first to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic; it put a strain on its people and economies, and policymaking became exceptionally difficult. This departmental paper contains the assessment of the key challenges facing Asia at this critical juncture and policy advice to the region both to address the current challenges and to build the foundations for a more sustainable and inclusive future. The paper focuses on (1) adjusting to the COVID-19 shock, (2) using unconventional policies when policy space is limited, (3) dealing with debt, and (4) helping the vulnerable and greening the recovery. The paper first presents the different ways countries are adjusting to the COVID-19 shock.
Keywords:
Policy Advice; Pandemic; Asia; DPPP; DP; containment measure; potential GDP; sample firm; illiquid firm; investment regression; nonfinancial firm; nonviable firm; rising debt; COVID-19; Yield curve; Central bank policy rate; Sovereign bonds; Global; Asia and Pacific; South Asia; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on macro-critical issues related to governance and corruption in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Third-party indicators suggest that governance has been poor and corruption widespread in the country. Conducting an audit of the civil service and improving the transparency of its remuneration system, simplifying tax payment processes, and merging the activities of the numerous revenue agencies would boost public efficiency and improve the business environment. Contract enforcement and protection of property rights could be enhanced by insulating the courts from external influence. Limited information on the budget annexes and special accounts and little or no oversight by the central government, Parliament, and civil society, create scope for corruption. The multiplicity of special taxes and fees, some accruing to special accounts outside the Treasury, generate opportunities for corruption and informalization of economic activity. Despite some progress in strengthening public financial management, budget execution remains deficient. The government has formalized the four stages of the expenditure chain and introduced budget commitment plans to align expenditures with revenues.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Congo; country; government; DRC government expenditure; bank rating; natural resource; B. government strategy; resource sector; revenue agency; curse thesis; FBNBANK DRC; Mining sector; Natural resources; Budget planning and preparation; Corruption; Global; Southern Africa; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cameroon: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Cameroon; bank; IMF staff calculation; GDP; capital expenditure
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cameroon: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper aims at providing an empirical underpinning to fiscal policy reforms implemented by the authorities by estimating the size of fiscal multipliers in Cameroon, using a novel long quarterly data set and looking separately at the impact of changes in revenue, and government consumption and investment. The impact of government spending and taxes depends on country characteristics and the stage of the business cycle. The analysis shows that revenue and capital expenditure multipliers in Cameroon are small and comparable to those of other sub-Saharan African and low-income countries. The revenue multiplier is close to nil which implies that revenue-based fiscal consolidation would be less harmful to growth in the medium term. Compared to its peers in sub-Saharan Africa, Cameroon’s revenue multiplier is smaller as is its tax burden relative to the regional average. Conversely, government expenditure can more significantly affect output in the medium term, although the consumption multiplier is unexpectedly much higher than the investment one.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Cameroon; bank; IMF staff calculation; GDP; capital expenditure; education gender gap; gender inequality index; poverty impact; IMF staff; poverty reduction goal; Women; Income inequality; Gender inequality; Personal income; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; West Africa; gender gaps in Cameroon; Policy recommendation; Policy simulation; poverty headcount; Financial inclusion
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Seizing the Momentum
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

Keywords:
REO; country abbreviation; commodity exporter; commodity
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Seizing the Momentum
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

Keywords:
REO; country abbreviation; commodity exporter; commodity; tourism dependent; IMF staff calculation; commodity price; Fiscal consolidation; Inflation; Income inequality; Caribbean; Global; Central America; South America; Western Hemisphere; inflation expectation; nominal GDP; central bank credibility; headline inflation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Myanmar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes banking sector developments in Myanmar. It highlights that latent banking sector risks are surfacing, following a period of rapid credit growth and as banks adjust to updated financial regulations. Over time banks will need to enhance their credit risk management, and reduce the over-reliance on collateral values to safeguard lending. A banking system action plan has been developed, to enhance the banking system’s resilience, as well as strengthen the supervisory and resolution framework. The ongoing overhaul of the prudential framework and financial sector reforms will strengthen the banking sector and its role in supporting the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Myanmar; bank; private bank; value chain; FDI; IMF staff calculation; growth takeoff; private bank lending; policy bank; banking system action plan; increase bank capital; FDI inflow; Commercial banks; Credit; Global value chains; Financial inclusion; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kosovo: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Kosovo discusses various challenges and opportunities in the public infrastructure domain. Given the very low initial stocks, largely due to the sharp depletion of capital stock during the conflicts in the 1990s, higher investment rates are needed. The resources available from international development partners, including the European Union (EU), the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, are a unique opportunity to leverage and accelerate the implementation of priority projects. Strengthening Kosovo’s investment framework is key to achieving this objective. Kosovo faces significant public infrastructure gaps, which constrain private sector development. Scaling-up public investment will raise gross domestic product growth potential and accelerate income convergence toward the EU average level. The priority project list has helped the authorities to prioritize plans and facilitate the discussions and negotiations with donors and International Financial Institutions (IFI). However, implementation so far has been modest, despite the new investment clause of the fiscal rule exempting IFI-financed projects from the deficit ceiling.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kosovo; lending; amount; credit growth; scheme outcome; EU accession process; IFI financing; Western Balkans peer; Credit; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Infrastructure; Bank credit; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Panama: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the effectiveness of Panama's fiscal framework. The fiscal framework of Panama has played an important role in enhancing fiscal discipline since its establishment in 2009. Since the current fiscal framework went into effect in 2009, the primary balance and debt-to-GDP ratio of the nonfinancial public sector have improved significantly on average compared with those in 2000–08. The fiscal impulse given the output gap also shows that fiscal policy was less procyclical in 2009–15 than in 2001–08. However, there are options to better align the framework with best practice, including reducing unintended procyclicality, increasing transparency, and improving accountability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Panama; bank; liquidity; poverty rate; income; transportation cost; growth performance; deficit ceiling; banking center; shipping industry; Offshore financial centers; Liquidity requirements; Fiscal governance; Global; Caribbean; Europe