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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper explores Haiti’s the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). This new 12-month SMP is expected to contribute to strengthen macroeconomic stability to support well-being of people and to enhance economic resilience and governance. It will anchor the government’s macroeconomic priorities for the year ahead. IMF management also welcomes the authorities’ commitment to publish the forthcoming Governance Diagnostic Report. Haiti faces a multidimensional crisis, a political transition, with a challenging outlook. The top priority is to continue to restore security. This is a prerequisite for macroeconomic stability and for allowing growth to materialize. Despite domestic and global difficulties, the authorities are firmly committed to negotiating a new SMP and have managed to contain somewhat the impact of the various shocks, thereby averting even worse macroeconomic outcomes. Advancing governance reforms is paramount to help Haiti exit from fragility, ensure inclusive growth and build trust with the private sector and development partners. A government-led strategy to continue to strengthen the economy’s resilience to multiple shocks requires the financial support of the international community.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Haiti faces an unprecedented multidimensional crisis encompassing humanitarian, economic, social, and security problems. The economy has a low tax base and a large informal sector that relies heavily on volatile remittance flows. Haiti’s macroeconomic outlook is challenging and subject to elevated uncertainty. The supply-side shock caused by the security crisis would continue to greatly affect growth and feed inflation unless the security outlook improves. The analytical work underpinning the policy discussions, prepared by staff in agreement with the authorities, focuses on strengthening policy frameworks to enhance resilience. The report recommends implementing the budget for FY2025 and keeps the monetary financing of the budget to zero, consistent with the objective of price stability. It is also recommended to provide more timely data to the IMF and enhance data transparency through timeline publication of core economic data. It can also be beneficial to adopt measures to strengthen revenue collection, expenditure management and controls and increase budget allocations for social spending and for protecting the most vulnerable—and assess their impact.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper focuses on Haiti’s Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) on Extension and Modification of Performance Criteria. Management of the IMF approved a nine-month extension of the SMP with Haiti covering the period through September 2024 to help the country establish a solid record of accomplishment of policy implementation. This SMP focuses on strengthening governance, fighting corruption, enhancing transparency and accountability in the use of public spending, including through data transparency to help ensure public funds are used appropriately. The new additional benchmarks entail the publication of the IMF governance diagnostics report and an associated action plan agreed by the authorities. In addition, it covers the provision of more granular monetary data, including detailed information on government deposits at the central bank and the publication of core macroeconomic and financial indicators according to timeliness, and periodicity of the Enhanced General Data Dissemination System. It also contains the publication of the upcoming annual audit of the central bank for FY2023, undertook, as usual practice, by an independent international audit firm.
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
The background papers support the stocktaking analysis and the proposed way forward for the 2023 review of the IMF's AML/CFT Strategy. The five background papers provide in-depth discussions on the following key topics: (i) illicit financial flows; (ii) the impact of money laundering in financial stability; (iii) synergies between financial integrity issues and other Fund policies and work; (iv) the Fund’s collaboration with key partners in the AML/CFT global policy architecture; and (v) stakeholders’ views of the effectiveness of the Fund’s AML/CFT engagement.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper highlights Haiti’s First Review under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). The SMP will help the government restore macroeconomic stability and lower inflation―a key goal given the burden of high inflation on the poor. The SMP seeks to advance decisive governance reforms to enhance accountability. In particular, it emphasizes greater accountability through stronger public finance management, revenue administration, transparency, and anti-corruption measures. Progress on governance is key to ensure inclusive growth. The authorities have taken steps to strengthen accountability in the collection and use of public resources and have boosted the transparency of public procurement for emergency resources. IMF staff will continue to work closely with the authorities to support implementation of their program and help them build public support. Indeed, most elements of the authorities’ program are underpinned by ongoing IMF technical assistance. The IMF Fund will also continue to coordinate closely with Haiti’s other development partners to leverage efforts in support of common objectives.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper highlights Haiti’s Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) and report proceedings. It is not feasible for Haiti to implement an upper credit tranche (UCT) IMF-supported program at this time due to the weakened policy frameworks and erosion in administrative capacity during the protracted crisis. The proposed SMP ending May 31, 2023 would help build capacity, support efforts to reduce inflation and raise growth, strengthen fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, address governance weaknesses and combat corruption, and take concrete steps to strengthen social assistance. A successful SMP is needed to build a track record of policy implementation that would improve Haiti’s prospects for a UCT program. It is recommended to mobilize revenues and strengthen public finance management, notably with higher tobacco, alcohol, and car excises, expansion and simplification of the tax base, and measures to strengthen expenditure management and controls. The program also recommends to strengthen the framework for monetary and exchange rate policies by clarifying the objectives and modalities for liquidity and foreign exchange rate operations.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Haiti’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a major challenge for Haiti, a country in a fragile situation with very limited healthcare services, just emerging from two years of socio-political instability and worsening economic hardship. Measures are being taken by the government to stop the spread of the virus and to cushion the economic impact of the shock. IMF emergency support under the Rapid Credit Facility will help fill the balance of payments gap and create fiscal space for essential health expenditures, income support to workers, and cash and in-kind transfers to households. In order to address the crisis, scarce budgetary resources will need to be allocated to critical spending on disease containment and increased social assistance to the most vulnerable. In order to ensure the appropriate use of emergency financing, the authorities should prepare monthly budget execution reports on COVID-19 expenditures and undertake an ex-post financial and operational audit of COVID-related operations.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that driven by popular frustration with high levels of corruption and inequality, Haiti has been experiencing a protracted political crisis and prolonged civil unrest. The baseline scenario assumes some stabilization in the political situation by early 2020 but no major political or economic reforms. This would allow growth to recover only gradually and in the absence of sustained implementation of good policies and structural reforms, potential growth would remain low at about 1.4 percent over the medium term. Downside risks, both domestic and external, remain elevated. A prolongation of political instability, extreme natural disaster, drop in remittances, and/or a contraction in exports because of trade tensions would worsen the outlook, particularly given the absence of buffers and fragile social conditions. The challenge is to stabilize the macroeconomic situation in an unstable political context. The IMF Staff encourages the authorities to continue their efforts to contain the fiscal deficit and its monetary financing by the central bank. Improving domestic revenue collection and redirecting current spending would help create space for much needed social and capital expenditures. Together with steps to strengthen the central bank’s autonomy and legal framework, this would help reduce fiscal dominance.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Haiti’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a major challenge for Haiti, a country in a fragile situation with very limited healthcare services, just emerging from two years of socio-political instability and worsening economic hardship. Measures are being taken by the government to stop the spread of the virus and to cushion the economic impact of the shock. IMF emergency support under the Rapid Credit Facility will help fill the balance of payments gap and create fiscal space for essential health expenditures, income support to workers, and cash and in-kind transfers to households. In order to address the crisis, scarce budgetary resources will need to be allocated to critical spending on disease containment and increased social assistance to the most vulnerable. In order to ensure the appropriate use of emergency financing, the authorities should prepare monthly budget execution reports on COVID-19 expenditures and undertake an ex-post financial and operational audit of COVID-related operations.
Mr. Serhan Cevik
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Tianle Zhu
Monetary independence is at the core of the macroeconomic policy trilemma stating that an independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate and free movement of capital cannot exist at the same time. This study examines the relationship between monetary autonomy and inflation dynamics in a panel of Caribbean countries over the period 1980–2017. The empirical results show that monetary independence is a significant factor in determining inflation, even after controlling for macroeconomic developments. In other words, greater monetary policy independence, measured as a country’s ability to conduct its own monetary policy for domestic purposes independent of external monetary influences, leads to lower consumer price inflation. This relationship—robust to alternative specifications and estimation methodologies—has clear policy implications, especially for countries that maintain pegged exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar with a critical bearing on monetary autonomy.