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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Equatorial Guinea’s economy remains confronted with a continuous decline in oil production. The overall fiscal surplus is estimated to have dropped to 0.3 percent of GDP from 13.6 percent in 2022, while the nonhydrocarbon primary fiscal deficit is expected at 23.3 percent of nonhydrocarbon gross domestic product (GDP), up from 22.7 percent of nonhydrocarbon GDP in 2022. Near and medium-term growth prospects appear challenging with the projected reduction in oil production and lacklustre growth in the non-oil economy due to underlying structural weaknesses. Real GDP growth is projected to contract by 5.5 percent in 2024, and the economy would remain on average in recession over the medium term. Fostering nonhydrocarbon growth and inclusion is critical to long-term macroeconomic and social stability.
International Monetary Fund
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21, and Bata explosions in 2021, struck oil-exporter Equatorial Guinea at a time when its economic vulnerabilities had already been aggravated by a prolonged period of depressed hydrocarbon prices, and seven consecutive years of decline in real GDP. The economy is slowly emerging from the ravages of the 2020-21 shocks, buoyed by higher international oil prices. However, substantial challenges remain: (i) surging food prices and banking sector vulnerabilities cloud the short term, while (ii) declining hydrocarbon productionand the implied decline in external reservesloom over the medium term, especially in light of lagging governance and diversification reform implementation.
International Monetary Fund
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21, and Bata explosions in 2021, struck oil-exporter Equatorial Guinea at a time when its economic vulnerabilities had already been aggravated by a prolonged period of depressed hydrocarbon prices, and seven consecutive years of decline in real GDP. The economy is slowly emerging from the ravages of the 2020-21 shocks, buoyed by higher international oil prices. However, substantial challenges remain: (i) surging food prices and banking sector vulnerabilities cloud the short term, while (ii) declining hydrocarbon productionand the implied decline in external reservesloom over the medium term, especially in light of lagging governance and diversification reform implementation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Already battered by a still unfolding COVID-19 pandemic, Equatorial Guinea was struck on March 7 by massive accidental explosions at a military compound in Bata, its largest city, that killed over 100 people and caused widespread damage to surrounding neighborhoods. These shocks have adversely impacted economic activity and weakened considerably the fiscal and external positions, relative to the EFF-supported program approved in December 2019, creating a substantial financing gap. With the EFF-supported program off-track, as governance reforms have taken longer than originally envisaged, it is not feasible to effectively respond to the humanitarian crisis within the EFF framework. Bringing the program back on track would take time as the authorities continue to work on outstanding structural measures due to capacity constraints in the pandemic context and need for consensus building. Support provided under the RFI, buttressed by appropriate prior actions on governance and safeguards, would create the fiscal space necessary for the authorities to meet the immediate humanitarian needs, and reinvigorate engagement under the EFF-supported program.
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The paper presents summary results for the updated data set, with country-by-country details provided in Appendix I. In terms of broad country groups, the results of the data update are broadly consistent with trends observed in previous updates. The aggregate share of Emerging Market and Developing Countries (EMDCs) increased by 0.3 pp, to 50.0 percent, following a small decline in the EMDCs’ share recorded in the 2018 data update. The rising EMDC share reflected again foremost an increase for Asia. Most advanced economies recorded a small decrease in their calculated quota share using the current quota formula.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic is having a severe impact on São Tomé and Príncipe’s economy, exacerbating fiscal and external imbalances. Tourism activities and external remittances dropped sharply, while lockdown measures further deepened the recession. The authorities’ swift actions and unprecedented international financial support are helping the country weather the emergency. The economy began to reopen in the fall, but the outlook for 2021 remains challenging and subject to significant uncertainty.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The pandemic is taking a heavy toll on the fragile island nation of São Tomé and Príncipe. Tourist arrivals came to an abrupt halt in mid-March, externally financed projects are being delayed, and supply shipments are disrupted. In response to the local outbreak, emergency confinement measures have been in place since March to contain infection. The authorities began phasing out these measures in late June, aiming for a full reopening of the economy by end-July. A disbursement supported by the Rapid Credit Facility (SDR 9.028 million) was approved in April 2020. The authorities request an augmentation of the ECF program by 10 percent of quota (SDR 1.48 million).
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The pandemic is taking a heavy toll on the fragile island nation of São Tomé and Príncipe. Tourist arrivals came to an abrupt halt in mid-March, externally financed projects are being delayed, and supply shipments are disrupted. In response to the local outbreak, emergency confinement measures have been in place since March to contain infection. The authorities began phasing out these measures in late June, aiming for a full reopening of the economy by end-July. A disbursement supported by the Rapid Credit Facility (SDR 9.028 million) was approved in April 2020. The authorities request an augmentation of the ECF program by 10 percent of quota (SDR 1.48 million).