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International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
The background papers support the stocktaking analysis and the proposed way forward for the 2023 review of the IMF's AML/CFT Strategy. The five background papers provide in-depth discussions on the following key topics: (i) illicit financial flows; (ii) the impact of money laundering in financial stability; (iii) synergies between financial integrity issues and other Fund policies and work; (iv) the Fund’s collaboration with key partners in the AML/CFT global policy architecture; and (v) stakeholders’ views of the effectiveness of the Fund’s AML/CFT engagement.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The BCEAO has conducted a comprehensive reform during the past five years. The regulatory and prudential framework were aligned with international standards and the conditions for supervision have been strengthened, although the efforts must be continued (liquidity ratio/net stable funding ratio and tools for monitoring liquidity, transfers of ownership, acquisitions of holdings, guidelines on nonperforming claims, and anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism—AML-CFT). The transition to Basel III has made it possible to incorporate additional capital requirements, while the rules applicable to credit institutions were upgraded with the 2017 publication of four circulars on governance, risk management, internal supervision, and compliance.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Guinea is being severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. A local outbreak is spreading rapidly, adding pressure to the fragile social context and putting a strain on the health system. Containment measures have started to negatively impact domestic economic activity. Furthermore, the sharp slowdown in China (Guinea’s main export market) has hindered mining exports and tax revenues, putting pressure on Guinea’s external and fiscal position. Since the completion of the fourth ECF review, worsening global conditions and the local outbreak have deteriorated Guinea’s short-term outlook. Real growth is expected to sharply decelerate to 1.4 percent in 2020.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Guinea is being severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. A local outbreak is spreading rapidly, adding pressure to the fragile social context and putting a strain on the health system. Containment measures have started to negatively impact domestic economic activity. Furthermore, the sharp slowdown in China (Guinea’s main export market) has hindered mining exports and tax revenues, putting pressure on Guinea’s external and fiscal position. Since the completion of the fourth ECF review, worsening global conditions and the local outbreak have deteriorated Guinea’s short-term outlook. Real growth is expected to sharply decelerate to 1.4 percent in 2020.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Real growth is expected at 5.8 percent in 2020, supported by rebounding mining production and investment-led construction activity. Legislative elections and a referendum for a new constitution will be held in March and presidential elections by end-year. Protests against the referendum are ongoing. Risks of political and social instability are high. Covid-19. The baseline scenario is based on the initial global downward revisions to growth due to the COVID-19 outbreak and assumes no outbreak in Guinea. As of March 10, 2020, there was no declared coronavirus case in Guinea. As the situation evolves, the country authorities and staff are keeping a close watch on macroeconomic developments, needed policy responses, and their impact on financing needs.
Marco A Espinosa-Vega
,
Ms. Kazuko Shirono
,
Mr. Hector Carcel Villanova
,
Ms. Bidisha Das
, and
Ms. Yingjie Fan
This departmental paper marks the 10th anniversary of the IMF Financial Access Survey (FAS). It offers a retrospective of the FAS database, along with some reflections as to its future directions. Since its 2009 launch, the FAS has provided granular data on access to and use of financial services. It is a supply-side database with annual global coverage based on data sourced directly from financial service providers—aimed at supporting policymakers to target and evaluate financial inclusion policies. Its data collection has kept pace with financial innovation, such as the rise of mobile money and growing demand for gender-disaggregated data—and the FAS must continue to evolve.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on Guinea’s Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, and Financing Assurances Review. While performance under the IMF-supported program remains broadly satisfactory, Guinea faces significant downside risks related to coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The IMF will remain closely engaged with the Guinean country authorities as the situation evolves, and as the authorities further develop their policy responses and financing needs change. The ECF arrangement supports strengthening Guinea’s resilience, scaling-up growth-supporting investment and social-safety nets and promoting private sector development. Achieving the programmed basic fiscal surplus in 2020 will contribute to containing inflation and preserving debt sustainability. Mobilizing additional tax revenues and reducing electricity subsidies will create fiscal space to scale-up growth-supporting public investments and strengthen social safety nets. Implementing programmed tax revenues measures, adopting an automatic petroleum products price adjustment mechanism, and advancing the multi-year electricity tariff reform is key. A prudent borrowing strategy will support scaling-up growth-supporting public investment.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The IMF conducted a Financial Sector Stability Review of the Republic of Guinea in June 2019. The review shows that while the current economic situation is benign, the financial soundness indicators (FSIs) point to increasing vulnerabilities. The economic outlook is currently positive. Moreover, financial inclusion is growing rapidly as mobile money services are quickly adopted. However, the FSIs suggest growing vulnerabilities and possibly some idiosyncratic stress in the banking sector. As a result of data quality and availability issues, it is difficult to make a more in-depth assessment of financial stability and potential vulnerabilities. The financial sector structure is, to some extent, a mitigant to the potential financial stability vulnerabilities. All banks are part of foreign financial groups that they can fall back on during periods of stress. While the current economic situation is benign, it is an opportune moment to develop the necessary capacity to handle potential financial stability vulnerabilities. As a priority, on and offsite supervision and the availability and quality of data on the banking sector, and in a later stage also for the other financial sectors, should be significantly improved, and the regulatory framework for banks should be modernized.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Guinea’s strong growth momentum continues. Real growth is estimated at 5.8 percent in 2018 and expected at about 6 percent in 2019–20. The social context remains fragile. Social unrest, strikes and protests marred 2018. While strikes have subsided so far in 2019, political and social tensions are intensifying due to delays in the legislative elections and questions related to the 2020 presidential elections.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Guinea’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criterion and Financing Assurances Review. Performance against end-December 2018 targets was satisfactory. All performance criteria and the indicative target (IT) on social safety net spending were met. A strong package of adjustment measures was implemented to achieve the end-2018 fiscal target. The ITs on tax revenue and the accumulation of new domestic arrears were not met. Program performance was satisfactory at end-March 2019, with most ITs met. Program-supported reforms advanced. Two of the four structural benchmarks were met, with substantial progress on the other two and full completion expected by. Additional adjustment measures are expected to be implemented to achieve a basic fiscal surplus in 2019, compensating for anticipated higher electricity subsidies and lower tax revenue. In parallel, public investment will be scaled-up to support growth. Advancing programmed tax measures and applying the petroleum prices adjustment mechanism will be key to support revenue mobilization.