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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade
Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade
Second edition
World Trade Organization
,
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
,
International Monetary Fund
, and
United Nations

Abstract

Digital technologies have made it increasingly feasible for buyers and sellers to place and receive orders on a global scale. They also enable the instantaneous remote delivery of services directly into businesses and homes, including internationally. The Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade sets out a conceptual and measurement framework for digital trade that aligns with the broader standards for macroeconomic statistics. It aims to help statistical compilers to address policymakers’ needs for statistical evidence on digital trade. It includes extensive compilation guidance, drawing upon substantive inputs and case studies from both developed and developing economies and covering a variety of survey and non-survey sources. This second edition of the Handbook builds upon the concepts set out in the first edition, published in 2019. Focusing on cross-border digitally ordered goods and services, on digitally delivered services, and on the role played by digital intermediation platforms the Handbook provides a framework and template for the compilation of internationally comparable statistics on digital trade.

Keywords:
Digital trade; digitalization; international trade; digital intermediation platforms; statistics; measurement; trade transaction; delivered trade; trade statistics; ICT-enabled trade; ordered trade; Trade in services; Imports; Exports; Trade in goods; Service exports; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper provides a systematic assessment of Moldova’s governance and institutional frameworks. It follows guidelines approved by the IMF executive board, which were developed to deliver systematic and even-handed analysis on macroeconomically critical governance and institutional vulnerabilities. This paper also focuses on seven key areas for IMF engagement: corruption, rule of law, regulatory framework, fiscal governance, financial sector oversight, anti-money laundering/combating the financing of terrorism, and central bank governance. The analysis is based on internationally comparable data, diagnosis from IMF technical assistance reports, as well as other expert assessments. Strengthening the judiciary and rule of law and accelerating state-owned enterprises (SOE) reform are clear priorities. The widespread nature of governance vulnerabilities and institutional weaknesses in Moldova, combined with capacity constraints, creates challenges for policy formulation and prioritization. Policy efforts should therefore focus on strengthening rule of law and reforming Moldova’s judiciary system, as well as building capacity and increasing the autonomy of key institutions. Steadfast SOE reform would foster competition, investment, and productivity, while reducing fiscal risks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Moldova; firm; government; IMF staff calculation; IMF governance framework; CFT framework; inflation-targeting regime; judiciary system; discretionary power; revenue institution; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Corruption; Global competitiveness; Global; Europe; Tax evasion
Cover IMF Working Papers
Globalization, Market Power, and the Natural Interest Rate
Jean-Marc Natal
and
Nicolas Stoffels
We argue that strong globalization forces have been an important determinant of global real interest rates over the last five decades, as they have been key drivers of changes in the natural real interest rate—i.e. the interest rate consistent with output at its potential and constant inflation. An important implication of our analysis is that increased competition in goods and labor market since the 1970s can help explain both the large increase in real interest rates up to the mid-1980s and—as globalization forces mature and may even go into reverse, leading to incrementally rising market power—its subsequent and protracted decline accompanied by lower inflation. The analysis has important implications for monetary policy and the optimal pace of normalization.
Keywords:
WP; low interest rate puzzle; globalization; natural interest rate; real interest rates; markups; globalization premium; reaction function; price markup; globalization process; goods market; Long term interest rates; Labor markets; Productivity; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Opening Up in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Policy Frameworks to Support Regional and Global Integration
Mr. Peter J Kunzel
,
Phil De Imus
,
Mr. Edward R Gemayel
,
Risto Herrala
,
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
, and
Farid Talishli
The Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries are at an important juncture in their economic transition. Following significant economic progress during the 2000s, recent external shocks have revealed the underlying vulnerabilities of the current growth model. Lower commodity prices, weaker remittances, and slower growth in key trading partners reduced CCA growth, weakened external and fiscal balances, and raised public debt. the financial sector was also hit hard by large foreign exchange losses. while commodity prices have recovered somewhat since late 2014, to boost its economic potential, the region needs to find new growth drivers, diversify away from natural resources, remittances, and public spending, and generate much stronger private sector-led activity.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; CCA country; capital account; CCA region; external shock; labor market; monetary policy; oil exporter; CCA commodity exporter; CCA oil importer; CCA banking sectors; CCA economy; Inflation targeting; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Globalization and the New Normal
Ms. Alina Carare
,
Bertrand Candelon
,
Jean-Baptiste Hasse
, and
Jing Lu
This study expands the empirical specification of Cerra and Saxena (2008), and allows short-term output growth regimes to be determined by globalization. Relying on a non-linear dynamic panel representation, it reconciles the earlier results in the literature regarding the two opposite narratives of the effects of globalization on output growth. Countries experience higher growth, on average, the more open and integrated they are into the world. However, once they reach a certain globalization threshold (endogenously estimated), countries may also experience a new normal, persistently lower short-term output growth following a financial crisis. The benefits, as well as vulnerabilities, accrue earlier in the globalization process for low- and middle-income countries. To solely reap the globalization benefits on growth, sound policies should be in place to mitigate the negative effects stemming from increased vulnerabilities brought by globalization.
Keywords:
WP; KOF globalization Index; high-globalization regime; banking crisis; trade globalization; New Normal; Globalization; Financial crises; Banking crises; Output growth; globalization threshold; Index value; Production growth; Stock markets; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Myanmar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes banking sector developments in Myanmar. It highlights that latent banking sector risks are surfacing, following a period of rapid credit growth and as banks adjust to updated financial regulations. Over time banks will need to enhance their credit risk management, and reduce the over-reliance on collateral values to safeguard lending. A banking system action plan has been developed, to enhance the banking system’s resilience, as well as strengthen the supervisory and resolution framework. The ongoing overhaul of the prudential framework and financial sector reforms will strengthen the banking sector and its role in supporting the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Myanmar; bank; private bank; value chain; FDI; IMF staff calculation; growth takeoff; private bank lending; policy bank; banking system action plan; increase bank capital; FDI inflow; Commercial banks; Credit; Global value chains; Financial inclusion; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
The Role of the Fund in Governance Issues - Review of the Guidance Note - Preliminary Considerations - Background Notes
International Monetary Fund
The Background Notes in this Supplement provide essential context and analysis needed to understand the problem of governance and corruption, its impact on the economies of Fund members, and the history and nature of Fund engagement on these issues. They also seek to support the assessment of the Fund’s overall approach to promoting good governance and reducing corruption—including through the lenses of key stakeholders—with a view to identifying strength and closing any remaining gaps.
Keywords:
PP; governance; country; corruption issue; fund; governance indicator; guidance note; treaty obligation; governance issue; Corruption; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global competitiveness; Global; Central Asia
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015
Stabilizing and Outperforming Other Regions
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Asia and the Pacific remains the global growth leader, albeit with a moderated pace of expansion since the global financial crisis. There is considerable diversity across the region: growth in China is slowing to a more sustainable pace, while in Japan a pickup in growth is expected. Non-oil commodity exporters have experienced sharply falling prices, while net importers have benefited from large changes in terms of trade. The April 2015 Regional Economic Outlook examines the volatility risks from this regional diversity, as well as Asia and Pacific’s role in global value chains and the factors affecting financial integration in Asia.

Keywords:
REO; economy; Asia; U.S. dollar; GVC participation; lower world oil price; inflation condition; portfolio investment; GVC pie; Financial integration; Inflation; Global value chains; Oil prices; Real effective exchange rates; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand; Southeast Asia; participation index subcategory; IMF staff calculation; source country's portfolio asset holding; bank claim; electronics gvcs; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants
Mr. Hideaki Hirata
,
Mr. Ayhan Kose
,
Mr. Christopher Otrok
, and
Mr. Marco Terrones
We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.
Keywords:
WP; house price; equity price; globalization period; interest rate shock; credit market; house price cycle; house price dynamics; house price fluctuation; oil price shock; price factor; monetary policy; interest rates; business cycles; financial cycles; house prices in the United States; house price growth; house price factor; house price bust; Housing prices; Credit; Housing; Short term interest rates; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Quota Formula Review - Initial Considerations
International Monetary Fund
Executive Directors welcomed the opportunity to initiate discussions on the quota formula review, which is to be concluded by January 2013. They recalled that the agreement to conduct a comprehensive review of the formula was an integral part of the quota and governance reform agreed in 2010. Directors stressed the importance of agreeing on a quota formula that better reflects members’ relative positions in the global economy for future discussions on the 15th General Review of Quotas
Keywords:
PP; GDP variable; openness variable; variable; resource mobilization effort; discussion