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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 71 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
A New Dataset of High-Frequency Monetary Policy Shocks
Marijn A. Bolhuis
,
Sonali Das
, and
Bella Yao
This paper presents a new dataset of monetary policy shocks for 21 advanced economies and 8 emerging markets from 2000-2022. We use daily changes in interest rate swap rates around central bank announcements to identify unexpected shocks to the path of monetary policy. The resulting series can be used to examine cross-country heterogeneity in the impact of monetary policy shocks. We establish a new empirical fact on monetary policy spillovers across countries: the monetary policy decisions of small open economy central banks, and not just major central banks, have substantial spillover effects on swap rates and bond yields in other countries.
Keywords:
monetary policy surprises; monetary policy shocks; central banks; central bank information effect; emerging markets; high-frequency method; spillovers; monetary policy spillovers; monetary policy spillover; monetary policy shock; information effect; monetary policy decision; monetary policy surprise; Yield curve; Sovereign bonds; Central bank policy rate; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Nominal effective exchange rate; Global
Cover FinTech Notes
Implications of Central Bank Digital Currency for Monetary Operations
Tansaya Kunaratskul
,
Andre Reslow
, and
Manmohan Singh
This Fintech Note aims to analyze how the issuance of central bank digital currency (CBDC) could affect monetary operations, which include central banks managing the demand and supply of reserves to achieve a desired stance of monetary policy. The note outlines three scenarios: CBDCs substituting cash, commercial bank deposits, and reserves, with implications varying based on design features and market developments. It discusses how these scenarios influence balance sheets and reserves, potentially drawing short-term interest rates away from the policy target and complicating liquidity forecasting. Furthermore, the note shows how central banks could calibrate monetary operations such as engaging in a fine-tuning operation and provide additional reserves on demand to ensure that central banks can maintain their monetary policy stance. Finally, careful design of CBDCs, such as setting criteria for access, holding quantity, and remuneration, can mitigate adverse effects on monetary operations.
Keywords:
Central bank digital currency; CBDC; digital money; monetary operations; monetary policy; central bank digital currency design; IMF FINTECH note 2024/007; Bank of England omnibus account; design choice; CBDC demand; handbook chapter; Central Bank digital currencies; Short term interest rates; Commercial banks; Monetary base; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bank Profitability in Europe: Not Here to Stay
Ruo Chen
,
Vincenzo Guzzo
,
Fazurin Jamaludin
,
Adil Mohommad
,
Ritong Qu
, and
Yueshu Zhao
Slower passthrough of policy interest rate hikes to deposit rates relative to their loan rates has led to sharply wider bank net interest margins. Combined with resilient asset quality, wider net interest margins supported record profits for European banks in 2023. Drawing on historical data from the balance sheets and income statements of over 2,500 European banks, this paper shows that abnormally high profits are expected to fade soon as interest income will decline, once policy rates start being lowered, while higher impairment costs historically have weighed on profits with a lag. Moreover, a number of structural factors that have eroded the performance of European banks in the past two decades have largely remained unaddressed and will continue being a drag on profits and capital. Therefore, policymakers should encourage banks to preserve capital buffers and build resilience to future shocks, while exercising caution when considering taxes on profits or other measures that could divert potential sources of capital from banks.
Keywords:
European banks; bank profits; interest rate margins; asset quality; bank capital; bank taxation.; bank profit; interest rate margin; bank taxation; impairment cost; Bank soundness; Financial statements; Income; Yield curve; Central bank policy rate; Europe; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Key Banking System Risks in the WAEMU: WAEMU
Knarik Ayvazyan
The gradual alignment of prudential regulations on Basel II/III standards since 2018, as well as improvements in banking supervision and macroprudential surveillance, have contributed to the WAEMU’s banking system’s resilience to recent global and regional shocks. However, while cyclical vulnerabilities have been contained, bank credit portfolios remain highly concentrated, and their exposure to sovereign risks has grown substantially in recent years, together with liquidity risks. Further reforms building on those recently implemented in line with recommendations from the 2022 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), including to enhance macroprudential policy’s effectiveness and banking supervision frameworks, will help address such vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
WAEMU; banks; risk; stress test; financial stability; credit gap; banking system's resilience; bank credit portfolio; Banking System risk; banking supervision framework; risks in the WAEMU; Commercial banks; Government securities; Securities; Market risk; Macroprudential policy; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The ECB’s Future Monetary Policy Operational Framework: Corridor or Floor?
Luis Brandão-Marques
and
Lev Ratnovski
This paper reviews the trade-offs involved in the choice of the ECB’s monetary policy operational framework. As long as the ECB’s supply of reserves remains well in excess of the banks’ demand, the ECB will likely continue to employ a floor system for implementing the target interest rate in money markets. Once the supply of reserves declines and approaches the steep part of the reserves demand function, the ECB will face a choice between a corridor system and some variant of a floor system. There are distinct pros and cons associated with each option. A corridor would be consistent with a smaller ECB balance sheet size, encourage banks to manage their liquidity buffers more tightly, and facilitate greater activity in the interbank market. But it would require relatively more frequent market operations to ensure the money markets rate stays close to the policy rate and could leave the banking system vulnerable to intermittent liquidity shortages that may have financial stability implications and impair monetary transmission. The floor, on the other hand, would allow for more precise control of the overnight rate and a lower risk of liquidity shortages, but it would entail a somewhat larger ECB balance sheet, weaken the incentives for banks to manage their liquidity buffers, and discourage interbank market activity. The analysis of tradeoffs suggests that, on balance, in steady state, a hybrid system that combines the features of the “parsimonious floor” (with a minimal volume of reserves) with a lending facility or frequent short-term full-allotment lending operations priced at or very close to the deposit rate, making it a “zero (or near-zero) corridor”, would be most conducive for achieving the ECB’s monetary policy objective.
Keywords:
Central bank operations; Monetary policy; The ECB; ECB balance sheet; ECB's monetary policy objective; supply of reserve; liquidity shortage; ECB's supply; Money markets; Liquidity; Interbank markets; Central bank policy rate; Standing facilities; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Consequences of Falling Behind the Curve: Inflation Shocks and Policy Delays Under Rational and Behavioral Expectations
Mai Hakamada
and
Carl E. Walsh
Central banks in major industrialized economies were slow to react to the surge in inflation that began in early 2021. The proximate causes of this surge were the supply chain disruptions associated with the easing of COVID restrictions, fiscal policies designed to cushion the economic impact of COVID, and the impact on commodity prices and supply chains of the war in Ukraine. We investigate the consequences of policy delay in responding to inflation shocks. First, using a simple three-period model, we show how policy delay worsens inflation outcomes, but can mitigate or even reverse the output decline that occurs when policy responds without delay. Then, using a calibrated new Keynesian framework and two measures of loss that incorporate a “balanced approach” to weigh inflation and the output gap, we find that loss is monotonically increasing in the length of the delay. Loss is reduced if policy, when it does react, is more aggressive. To investigate whether these results are sensitive to the assumption of rational expectations, we consider cognitive discounting as an alternative assumption about expectations. With cognitive discounting, forward guidance is less powerful and results in a reduction in the costs of delay. Under either assumption about expectations, the costs of a short delay can be eliminated by adopting a less inertial policy rule and a more aggressive response to inflation.
Keywords:
monetary policy; inflation policy delay; behavioral expectations; falling behind the curve; Policy delay; inflation outcome; inflation shock; supply chain disruption; trend inflation; Inflation; Output gap; Rational expectations; Central bank policy rate; Real interest rates
Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansion in a Dollarized Economy: The Case of Ecuador
Juan-Pablo Erraez
and
Julien Reynaud
A textbook argument in favor of adopting another country’s legal tender is that it imposes strong constraints on money creation and therefore fiscal dominance. In Ecuador, an officially dollarized economy since January 2000, a series of accounting practices and subsequent changes in legislations approved over the period 2009-2014 allowed an expansion of the Central Bank of Ecuador’s (CBE) balance sheet to finance the central government. At its peak, central bank financing of the government represented 10 percent of GDP. This resulted in large liabilities to the CBE that translated into low reserve coverage, putting the public and private financial systems and ultimately the dollarization regime at risk. In this paper, we first present the legal and accounting processes behind the expansion of the CBE's balance sheet and some stylized facts. In the second section, we establish a stress test-like methodology to show how the expansion of the CBE’s balance sheet induced strong pressures on CBE’s liquidity. Ultimately, such liquidity stress at the CBE translated into high cash inflows needs, i.e. external debt, for the central government.
Keywords:
Central bank; balance sheet expansion; fiscal dominance; central bank financing; financing of the government; accounting practice; liquidity ration; CBE balance sheet; CBE liability; International reserves; State-owned banks; Financial statements; Bank deposits; Public sector
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cyclical Patterns of Systemic Risk Metrics: Cross-Country Analysis
Mr. Plamen K Iossifov
We analyze a range of macrofinancial indicators to extract signals about cyclical systemic risk across 107 economies over 1995–2020. We construct composite indices of underlying liquidity, solvency and mispricing risks and analyze their patterns over the financial cycle. We find that liquidity and solvency risk indicators tend to be counter-cyclical, whereas mispricing risk ones are procyclical, and they all lead the credit cycle. Our results lend support to high-level accounts that risks were underestimated by stress indicators in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis. The policy implications of conflicting risk signals would depend on the phase of the credit cycle.
Keywords:
credit cycle.; WP; risk metrics; risk index; risk indices; solvency risk; interest rate; mispricing risk
Cover IMF Working Papers
Effects of Emerging Market Asset Purchase Program Announcements on Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Can Sever
,
Rohit Goel
,
Dimitris Drakopoulos
, and
Mr. Evan Papageorgiou
The COVID-19 pandemic led many emerging market central banks to adopt, for the first time, unconventional policies in the form of asset purchase programs. In this study, we analyze the effects of these announcements on domestic financial markets using both event studies and local projections methodology. We find that these asset purchase announcements lowered bond yields, did not lead to a depreciation of domestic currencies, and did not have much effect on equities. While the immediate effect of asset purchases appears positive, further consideration of the risks and longer-term effects of unconventional monetary policies is needed. We highlight the trade-offs involved with the implementation of these measures, and discuss their risks. This working paper adds to the debate on how asset purchase programs should be a regular part of the emerging market policy toolkit.
Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemic; asset purchase program; quantitative easing; bonds; policy announcement; policy spillover; equities; foreign exchange; central banks; emerging markets.; WP; asset purchase; QE announcement; market dynamics; EM currency; EM equity; market volatility
Cover IMF Working Papers
Filling the Gap: Digital Credit and Financial Inclusion
Majid Bazarbash
and
Ms. Kimberly Beaton
Can fintech credit fill the credit gap in the consumer and business segments? There are few cross-country studies that explore this question. Focusing on marketplace lending, an important part of fintech credit, we use data for 109 countries from 2015 to 2017 to study the relationship between fintech credit to businesses and consumers and various aspects of financial development. Marketplace lending to consumers grows in countries where financial depth declines highlighting the role of fintech credit in filling the credit gap by traditional lenders. This result is particularly strong in low-income countries. In the business segment, marketplace lending expands where financial efficiency declines. Our findings show that low-income countries take advantage of the fintech credit opportunity in the consumer segment but face important challenges in the business segment.
Keywords:
WP; marketplace lending; fintech lending; cross-country difference; balance sheet lending; consumer lending; lending to GDP; finance activity; bank lending; fintech credit; composition of marketplace lending; development of marketplace lending; lending development; consumer lending from Lending Club; Credit; Fintech; Financial sector development; Financial inclusion; Peer-to-peer lending; Global; Western Hemisphere; Middle East and Central Asia; Europe; Digital Credit; Asia and Pacific