Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 89 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Demand for Money x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover FinTech Notes
Implications of Central Bank Digital Currency for Monetary Operations
Tansaya Kunaratskul
,
Andre Reslow
, and
Manmohan Singh
This Fintech Note aims to analyze how the issuance of central bank digital currency (CBDC) could affect monetary operations, which include central banks managing the demand and supply of reserves to achieve a desired stance of monetary policy. The note outlines three scenarios: CBDCs substituting cash, commercial bank deposits, and reserves, with implications varying based on design features and market developments. It discusses how these scenarios influence balance sheets and reserves, potentially drawing short-term interest rates away from the policy target and complicating liquidity forecasting. Furthermore, the note shows how central banks could calibrate monetary operations such as engaging in a fine-tuning operation and provide additional reserves on demand to ensure that central banks can maintain their monetary policy stance. Finally, careful design of CBDCs, such as setting criteria for access, holding quantity, and remuneration, can mitigate adverse effects on monetary operations.
Keywords:
Central bank digital currency; CBDC; digital money; monetary operations; monetary policy; central bank digital currency design; IMF FINTECH note 2024/007; Bank of England omnibus account; design choice; CBDC demand; handbook chapter; Central Bank digital currencies; Short term interest rates; Commercial banks; Monetary base; Global
Cover FinTech Notes
Implications of Central Bank Digital Currencies for Monetary Policy Transmission
Ms. Mitali Das
,
Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
,
Fumitaka Nakamura
,
Ms. Julia Otten
,
Gabriel Soderberg
,
Mr. Juan Sole
, and
Brandon Tan
This fintech note presents an analysis of the implications of central bank digital currency (CBDC) for monetary policy. In our framework, the implications of CBDC issuance on monetary policy are intermediated by its impact on key parts of the macroeconomic environment. The note also makes a distinction between “level effects”—whereby the introduction of CBDCs could tighten or loosen financial conditions as a shock—and “transmission effects,” whereby CBDCs change the impact of a given monetary policy shock on output, employment, and inflation. In general, the effects of CBDCs on monetary policy transmission are expected to be relatively small in normal times; however, these effects can be more significant in an environment with low interest rates or financial market stress.
Keywords:
Central bank digital currencies; monetary policy; monetary policy transmission; monetary policy transition; IMF Fintech Note 2023/010; FINTECH note; CBDC issuance; Central bank policy rate; Financial inclusion; Bank deposits; Open market operations; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Implications of Central Bank Digital Currencies: Perspectives on Jurisdictions with Conventional and Islamic Banking Systems
Ms. Inutu Lukonga
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) promise many benefits but, if not well designed, they could have undesired consequences, including for monetary policy. Issuing an unremunerated CBDC or a wholesale CBDC does not change the objectives of monetary policy or the operational framework for monetary policy. CBDCs can, however, induce changes in the retail, wholesale and cross border payments that have negative spillover effects on monetary policy, through their effects on money velocity, bank deposit disintermediation, volatility of bank reserves, currency substitution, and capital flows. Countries most vulnerable are those with banking systems dominated by small retail deposits and demand deposits, low levels of digital payments and weak macro fundamentals. Proposed CBDC design features, such as caps on CBDC holdings and unremunerating the CBDC can moderate disintermediation risks, but they are not sufficient. Central banks will need to ensure that unintended macroeconomic risks are comprehensively identified and mitigated.
Keywords:
Central Bank Digital Currencies; CBDC; CBDC Pilots; Monetary Policy; Islamic Finance; impact monetary policy implementation; design option; unremunerated CBDC; monetary policy implication; deposit disintermediation; Commercial banks; Velocity of money; Islamic banking; Monetary base; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Digital Money and Central Banks Balance Sheet
Adrian Armas
and
Mr. Manmohan Singh
Digital money is a logical step in a process of continuous technological advancement in payment systems. In response, central banks are reviewing their conduct of monetary operations in light of the new shape of financial markets and systems. The impact of digital money will depend on the type of money substitution by digital money. The paper straddles several cases where substitution of CiC (currency in circulation), and bank deposits may take place via digital money such as CBDC or other e-money, and how it would impact the central bank balance sheet. Remuneration of CBDC, if aligned to a new objective, could potentially amplify the effect on the interest rate channel of monetary policy.
Keywords:
CBDC; digital money; currency-in-circulation; bank deposits; central bank balance sheet; money base (M0); seigniorage; impact of digital money; dollarization level; central bank of Brazil; unit of account; central bank liability; Fiat currency; central bank FX; Digital currencies; Currencies; Central Bank digital currencies; Treasury bills and bonds; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Digital Money and Central Bank Operations
Mr. Charles M. Kahn
,
Mr. Manmohan Singh
, and
Jihad Alwazir
The rise of new and proposed monetary vehicles, including CBDC, stablecoins, payment service providers etc., are unprecedented. An important question for central banks is the extent to which these innovations upend the role of and implementation of monetary policy. The paper focuses on the interest rate channel and if digital money (especially CBDC) will change monetary policy and central bank operations. We argue that new policy instruments make sense only to the extent that there is limited substitutability between the various payment sectors. We analyze trends in currency-in-circulation, and how it may impact central bank’s seigniorage, monetary base, and transactional velocity of digital money if money demand declines. Liquidity outside the monetary base will also be important to understand.
Keywords:
Base money; CBDC; central banking operations; currency in circulation; digital money; mobile phone operators; seigniorage; central bank operations Charles Kahn; jihad Alwazir; lender-of-last-resort facilities; payments assets; phone company payments account; central bank profits; central bank regulation; Monetary base; Digital currencies; Central Bank digital currencies; Currencies; Commercial banks
Cover IMF Working Papers
Dirty Money: Does the Risk of Infectious Disease Lower Demand for Cash?
Mr. Serhan Cevik
The coronavirus pandemic is a global crisis like no other in modern times, and there is a growing apprehension about handling potentially contaminated cash. This paper is the first empirical attempt in the literature to investigate whether the risk of infectious diseases affects demand for physical cash. Since the intensity of cash use may influence the spread of infectious diseases, this paper utilizes two-stage least squares (2SLS) methodology with instrumental variable (IV) to address omitted variable bias and account for potential endogeneity. The analysis indicates that the spread of infectious diseases lowers demand for physical cash, after controlling for macroeconomic, financial, and technological factors. While the transactional constraints imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic could become a catalyst for the use of digital technologies around the world, electronic payment methods may not be universally available in every country owing to financial and technological bottlenecks.
Keywords:
Demand for cash; currency-in-circulation; digital money; infectious diseases; WP; cash use; handling cash; cash transfer; store of value; infectious-disease outbreak; payment method; coronavirus pandemic; Communicable diseases; Currencies; COVID-19; Deposit rates; Ebola; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Privacy Provision, Payment Latency, and Role of Collateral
Mr. Charles M. Kahn
,
Caitlin Long
, and
Mr. Manmohan Singh
The new boundary between publicly and privately provided payments systems and the role of collateral may be changing. Recent technological developments have made it feasible for markets and policymakers to contemplate abolishing physical cash, and replacing it with electronic alternatives like digital tokens. This paper focuses on two concepts: (i) privacy provision that results in increased awareness of and concern with problems of privacy in payments systems; and (ii) payment latency, and how the new fintech world is likely to result in reduced counterparty and interest rate risk for corporate treasurer. The paper ties these issues from the lens of collateral, especially the analogy of collateral reuse and digital tokens.
Keywords:
WP; payments medium; payment latency; payment solution; payment-system user; payment settle; privacy provision; collateral reuse; digitial tokens; payment system; payments provider; latency cost; Payment systems; Currencies; Bank deposits; Collateral; Central Bank digital currencies; Global; payment arrangement; status quo payment system
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cash Use Across Countries and the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency
Mr. Tanai Khiaonarong
and
David Humphrey
The level and trend in cash use in a country will influence the demand for central bank digital currency (CBDC). While access to digital currency will be more convenient than traveling to an ATM, it only makes CBDC like a bank debit card—not better. Demand for digital currency will thus be weak in countries where cash use is already very low, due to a preference for cash substitutes (cards, electronic money, mobile phone payments). Where cash use is very high, demand should be stronger, due to a lack of cash substitutes. As the demand for CBDC is tied to the current level of cash use, we estimate the level and trend in cash use for 11 countries using four different measures. A tentative forecast of cash use is also made. After showing that declining cash use is largely associated with demographic change, we tie the level of cash use to the likely demand for CBDC in different countries. In this process, we suggest that one measure of cash use is more useful than the others. If cash is important for monetary policy, payment instrument competition, or as an alternative payment instrument in the event of operational problems with privately supplied payment methods, the introduction of CBDC may best be introduced before cash substitutes become so ubiquitous that the viability of CBDC could be in doubt.
Keywords:
WP; cash use; payment instrument; cash share forecast; cash substitute; cash payment; cash forecasting; central bank digital currency; use data; Currencies; Payment systems; Central Bank digital currencies; Bank deposits; Digital currencies; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy and Models of Currency Demand
Mariam El Hamiani Khatat
Two types of currency in circulation models are identified: (1) a first generation derived from the theory of money demand and (2) a second generation aimed at producing daily forecasts of currency in circulation. In this paper, we transform the currency demand function into a VAR to capture the dynamic link between interest rates and the demand for cash. We also apply ARIMA modeling to forecast the daily currency in circulation for Brazil, Kazakhstan, Morocco, New Zealand, and Sudan. Our empirical work shows that some of the conclusions in the economic literature on the impact of interest rates on the demand for currency do not necessarily hold, and that central banks would benefit from running both generations of currency in circulation models. The fundamental longer-run determinants of the demand for cash are distinct from its short-run determinants.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; monetary policy; banking system; Currency in circulation; ARIMA models; seasonality; liquidity forecasting; ARIMA model; currency demand; Arima currency in circulation model; FX operation; net foreign assets; a number of central banks; CIC model; policy rate change; bank reserves; Moroccan dirham; monetary policy shock; currency in circulation model; Currencies; Central bank policy rate; Liquidity; Commercial banks; Maghreb
Cover IMF Working Papers
Housing Price and Household Debt Interactions in Sweden
Ms. Rima A Turk
Sweden is experiencing double-digit housing price gains alongside rising household debt. A common interpretation is that mortgage lending boosted by expansionary monetary policy is driving up house prices. But theory suggests the value of housing collateral is also important for household’s capacity to borrow. This paper examines the interactions between housing prices and household debt using a three-equation model, finding that household borrowing impacts housing prices in the short-run, but the price of housing is the main driver of the secular trend in household debt over the long-run. Both housing prices and household debt are estimated to be moderately above their long-run equilibrium levels, but the adjustment toward equilibrium is not found to be rapid. Whereas low interest rates have contributed to the recent surge in housing prices, growth in incomes and financial assets play a larger role. Policy experiments suggest that a gradual phasing out of mortgage interest deductibility is likely to have a manageable effect on housing prices and household debt.
Keywords:
WP; household debt; housing stock; debt-to housing assets; error correction term; housing price adjustments; housing price deceleration; housing price equation; housing price growth; housing supply; mortgage credit; Housing market; Collateral; Sweden; nominal interest rate; model predictability; house price equation; consumption fluctuation; house price gain; housing price trend; housing price deviation; apartment price rise; Housing prices; Housing; Mortgages; Disposable income; Real interest rates; Global; Europe