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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 1,551 items for :

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Botswana: Technical Assistance Report-Enhancing the Forecasting Policy and Analysis System at the Bank of Botswana
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
At the request of Bank of Botswana, a Technical Assistance mission from the Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) Department visited Gaborone, Botswana during May 27–31, 2024, to assist the authorities in enhancing their forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS). The mission assessed and advised on both near-term and medium-term forecasting tools and models currently used by the Bank of Botswana. The mission team helped create a new centralized database and introduced a new flexible platform with a suite of models that expands and complements existing near-term forecasting models. The mission team also improved the medium-term forecasting framework by reviewing model calibration, introducing a fiscal block, and recommending further adjustments.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Forecasting and Policy Analysis System; Data Management; Near-term and Medium-term Forecasting Tools; Botswana.; IMF's Monetary; medium term forecasting tool; IMF Monetary; policy analysis system; IMF executive directors; Output gap; Infrastructure; Exchange rate arrangements; Central bank policy rate; Exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses perspectives on the Czech Republic’s structural productivity slowdown. The Czech economy has underperformed European peers in the post-pandemic period and economic convergence has come to a halt. This outcome is often attributed to the country’s links to specific slow growing trading partners and to its energy-intensive economic structure. A decline in productivity, along with a slower increase in the labor force has been a crucial factor. The paper focuses specifically on the challenge posed by declining productivity, uncovering multifaceted factors and dynamics at play. Empirical analysis suggests that further R&D investment could reduce gaps with the total factor productivity frontier, sector-specific bottlenecks should be addressed, and productivity-enhancing labor reallocation could be better supported by more targeted policies. Though structural transformation may be inevitable, it does not need to adversely affect productivity as observed in recent years. The Czech Republic may evolve towards a more mature, diversified economy with certain services playing an increasingly significant role.
Keywords:
macro News; macroeconomics news; ECB monetary policy surprise; EU TFP frontier; inflation expectation; Automobile industry; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Asset prices; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Czech Republic is evolving from a heavily manufacturing-based, export-oriented hub to a more mature and diversified economy. Non-auto manufacturing, energy, and construction, once important Czech engines of growth, have run out of steam, hampered by decelerating productivity growth, higher energy costs, and sluggish demand. The auto industry has shown resilience so far, but the required transition to electric vehicles and exposure to foreign competition are set to exert significant pressures in the coming years. After stagnating in 2022-23, the Czech economy is slowly recovering, as consumer spending is sustained by a rebound in real wages. Growth is poised to gain momentum as the policy mix becomes more supportive of economic activity and external demand gradually strengthens. Concrete actions should focus on facilitating the allocation of labor towards higher value-added sectors and firms, addressing the gender pay gap to boost labor participation, reducing administrative burden and red tape, accelerating digitalization, and promoting a more ambitious green transition.
Keywords:
currency of the Czech Republic; FSAP update; FSAP participation; services inflation; managing inflation risk; Inflation; Productivity; Labor markets; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bolivia's growth momentum moderated in 2023, to 2.5 percent, from declining natural gas production, less public investment, and financial market turmoil. Growth is anticipated to decelerate to 1.6 percent in 2024, holding at around 2.2-2.3 percent in the medium term under the continuation of the current policies. Inflation is forecast to reach 4.5 percent in 2024, stabilizing around 4 percent thereafter. The outlook is however predicated on significantly improved access to external financing, without which the risk of disorderly fiscal and/or exchange rate adjustment is elevated. Near-term growth is expected to remain constrained by elevated uncertainty and unfavorable financial conditions. Structural reforms to incentivize foreign investment, improve capital allocation, eliminate credit quotas and interest rate ceilings, expand and diversify the export base, strengthen fiscal and central bank governance, and revamp the regulatory framework will be crucial to eventually guide the economy to a higher medium-term growth path.
Keywords:
market exchange rate volatility; authorities' action; U.S. dollar; Bolivian authorities; government's measure; Public sector; International reserves; Inflation; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Measure the Monetary Stance
Olamide Harrison
and
Vina Nguyen
This note provides a conceptual framework to organize discussions of the appropriateness of the monetary policy stance and presents tools that country teams can employ to measure, report, and evaluate the stance of monetary policy. The note focuses exclusively on aggregate demand considerations—on whether the stance is tight or loose—without considering whether such a stance is appropriate for achieving policy objectives. The latter requires considering aggregate supply and Phillips Curve trade-offs. The note does not cover other macroeconomic policies, such as macroprudential or fiscal measures, which could also have a considerable impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Keywords:
Monetary policy stance; natural interest rate; neutral interest rate; yield curve; data IMF Library; ante real interest rates; publication order; inflation expectation; Real interest rates; Central bank policy rate; Inflation; Monetary stance; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
ECB Monetary Policy Passthrough to Bank Interest Rates During Tightening: Republic of Kosovo
Ezgi O. Ozturk
This paper analyzes the transmission of ECB policy rate changes to bank interest rates in Kosovo during the 2022-23 tightening cycle. While both lending and deposit rates increased, the passthrough was more limited compared to the euro area and regional peers. Three key factors explain this limited transmission: Kosovo's stage of financial development, high banking sector liquidity, and significant bank concentration.
Keywords:
Monetary policy transmission; interest rates; banking sector; euroization; financial development; Kosovo; ECB monetary policy Passthrough; ECB policy rate change; ECB policy rate Passthrough; ECB Policy rate pass-through; Central bank policy rate; Deposit rates; Financial sector development; Inflation; Financial inclusion; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper analyzes Argentina’s Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. The 2022 EFF came about in extremely difficult circumstances. Argentina was unable to regain external viability under the 2018 Stand-By Arrangement and faced large and concentrated repurchase obligations to the IMF. The combination of a gradualist reform strategy, large adverse shocks, and progressively weaker implementation resulted in outcomes substantially worse than in the baseline by end-2023. The program got off to a difficult start, with the surge in global commodity prices due to Russia’s war in Ukraine feeding inflation expectations and creating additional fiscal spending needs that were met through direct and indirect monetization, further fueling inflation. A major course correction subsequently undertaken by the Milei government—notably a sharp fiscal consolidation, an upfront devaluation, and an end to monetary financing of the budget helped Argentina avert a full-blown crisis and make important strides toward macroeconomic stabilization. Overall, the 2022 EFF did not achieve its original macroeconomic objectives, but it was successful in easing the burden of Argentina’s financial obligations to the IMF by rescheduling repayments over 2026–2034, and may have helped Argentina avoid even worse outcomes in 2022–2023.
Keywords:
program ownership; IMF view; disinflation process; Policy strategy; lending decision; risk tolerance; Fiscal consolidation; International reserves; Inflation; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s economy remains resilient, and performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. The authorities met all end-September quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks. Economic growth in 2024 has been upgraded given better than expected resilience to the energy shocks. However, a slowdown is expected in 2025 due to an increasingly tight labor market, the impact of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and continued uncertainty about the war. The financial sector remains stable, but vigilance is needed given heightened risks. Progress on strengthening bank resolution and risk-based supervision, stress-testing frameworks and contingency planning should be sustained. Sustained reform momentum, progress at domestic revenue mobilization, and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and improve governance.
Keywords:
core inflation basket; Ukrenergo's government; national bank of Ukraine; supervisory board; inflation expectation; Budget planning and preparation; Inflation; International reserves; Debt sustainability; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy and Inflation Scares
Christopher J. Erceg
,
Jesper Lindé
, and
Mathias Trabandt
A salient feature of the post-COVID inflation surge is that economic activity has remained resilient despite unfavorable supply-side developments. We develop a macroeconomic model with nonlinear price and wage Phillips curves, endogenous intrinsic indexation and an unobserved components representation of a cost-push shock that is consistent with these observations. In our model, a persistent large adverse supply shock can lead to a persistent inflation surge while output expands if the central bank follows an inflation forecast-based policy rule and thus abstains from hiking policy rates for some time as it (erroneously) expects inflationary pressures to dissipate quickly. A standard linearized formulation of our model cannot account for these observations under identical assumptions. Our nonlinear framework implies that the standard prescription of "looking through" supply shocks is a good policy for small shocks when inflation is near the central bank's target, but that such a policy may be quite risky when economic activity is strong and large shocks drive inflation well above target. Moreover, our model implies that the economic costs of "going the last mile" – i.e. a tight stance aimed at returning inflation quickly to target – can be substantial.
Keywords:
Inflation Dynamics; New Keynesian Model; Inflation Risk; Monetary Policy; Linearized Model; Nonlinear Model; State-Dependent Pricing; cost-push shock; policy rule; COVID inflation surge; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Supply shocks; Central bank policy rate; Labor markets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tonga: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tonga
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Tonga’s economic activity has strengthened, bolstered by consistent remittance flows, continued tourism recovery, and robust construction activities. Inflationary pressures have substantially eased. After peaking at 14.1 percent in September 2022, headline inflation has since been normalizing. The near-term baseline economic outlook remains favorable appropriately supported by expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to accelerate to 2.4 percent in FY2025, mostly led by continued strength in domestic demand including large public investment projects and a rebound in agricultural output as the effects of El Nino dissipate. The medium-term growth prospects remain uneven, however. Tonga’s long-term growth is projected at 1.2 percent, reflecting its exposure to increasingly frequent natural disasters, persistent loss of workers to emigration, and limited economies of scale due to geographical barriers. Structural reforms with a focus on bolstering disaster resilience, advancing digital transformation, and strengthening governance frameworks to foster a conducive business environment are essential to meet Tonga’s developments goals.
Keywords:
priority safeguards assessment recommendation; Tonga authorities; reference rate; currency basket; intervention currency; Natural disasters; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand