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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 248 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Long-Term Debt and Short-Term Rates: Fixed-Rate Mortgages and Monetary Transmission
Alessia De Stefani
and
Rui Mano
We study the two-way relationship between fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) and monetary policy in a panel of up to 35 countries over the last two decades. The dataset includes quarterly information on the composition of mortgage flows and stock by type of rate-fixation and monetary policy shocks cleaned of information effects. Using instrumental-variablel local projections, we find both path- and state-dependency in monetary transmission. Monetary policy shapes mortgage choice, increasing (decreasing) the share of FRMs during easing (tightening) cycles. Over time, this mechanism alters the composition of the outstanding mortgage stock which, in turn, affects the central bank's ability to stabilize the economy ex-post. A greater (lower) prevalence of FRMs weakens (strengthens) monetary policy transmission to key macro-variables.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Mortgage Markets; monetary policy shock; monetary policy transmission; mortgage choice; prevalence of FRMs; ARM rate; Mortgages; Central bank policy rate; Stocks; Housing prices; Private consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Market Price of Risk and Macro-Financial Dynamics
Mr. Tobias Adrian
,
Fernando Duarte
, and
Tara Iyer
We propose the conditional volatility of GDP spanned by financial factors as a “Volatility Financial Conditions Index” (VFCI) and show it is closely tied to the market price of risk. The VFCI exhibits superior explanatory power for stock and bond risk premia compared to other FCIs. We use a variety of identification strategies and instruments to demonstrate robust causal relationships between the VFCI and macroeconomic aggregates: a tightening of financial conditions as measured by the VFCI leads to a persistent contraction of output and triggers an immediate easing of monetary policy. Conversely, contractionary monetary policy shocks cause tighter financial conditions.
Keywords:
Macro-Finance; Financial Conditions Index; Monetary Policy; Asset Pricing; Market Price of Risk; Consumption Volatility; Causal Identification; bond risk premia; contractionary monetary policy shock; tightening of financial conditions; VFCI shock; Structural vector autoregression; Consumption; Asset prices; Estimation techniques; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Norway grew strongly in 2022 but the pace of output growth receded somewhat this year. Record-high energy and food prices together with much higher interest rates put pressure on households’ purchasing power. Nonetheless, mainland gross domestic product growth is still expected to be positive, supported by strong business investment and exports. Norway experienced one of the highest growth rates among advanced economies last year, and risks remain balanced. Growth is continuing but at a more modest pace. The country has experienced windfall gains from high petroleum and natural gas prices that have so far countered global headwinds. The banking system is strong but tightening global conditions pose risks. Risks to financial stability appear to be broadly manageable, but continued vigilance is needed given the heightened uncertainty. Progress on structural reforms has been piecemeal. Some steps have been taken in further upskilling the workforce, including increased vocational training and the planned introduction of a youth guarantee scheme.
Keywords:
money market rate; inflation risk; liability positions vis-a-vis nonresident; inflation expectation; mainland GDP growth; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Central bank policy rate; Consumption; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
European Housing Markets at a Turning Point – Risks, Household and Bank Vulnerabilities, and Policy Options
Ms. Laura Valderrama
,
Patrik Gorse
,
Ms. Marina Marinkov
, and
Petia Topalova
European housing markets are at a turning point as the cost-of-living crisis has eroded real incomes and the surge in interest rates has made borrowers more vulnerable to financial distress. This paper aims to (i) shed light on the risks in European housing markets, (ii) quantify household vulnerabilties, (iii) assess banking sector implications and (iv) examine policies’ effectiveness using simulations based on microdata from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC). Under the baseline IMF macroeconomic forecast, the share of households that could struggle to meet basic expenses could rise by 10 pps reaching a third of all households by end 2023. Under an adverse scenario, 45 percent of households could be financially stretched, representing over 40 percent of mortgage debt and 45 percent of consumer debt. The impact on the banking sector seems contained under the baseline forecast, though there are pockets of vulnerability. A 20 percent house price correction could deplete CET1 capital by 100-300 basis points. Fiscal measures, such as subsidies to the bottom income tercile, could save 7 percent of households from financial distress at an estimated cost of 0.8 percent of GDP.
Keywords:
Housing markets; overvaluation; affordability; household vulnerability; tenure status; income distribution; consumption; financial stability; targeted support; macroprudential policy.; EU banking sector; banking sector implication; housing market correction; house price correction; bank capital; Mortgages; Housing prices; Income; Housing; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation highlights that Russia’s war in Ukraine has stifled the Czech Republic’s nascent recovery from the pandemic. Uncertainty is high due to the war with risks to economic activity tilted to the downside and risks to inflation tilted to the upside. The economy remains vulnerable to the availability of and further increases in energy and commodity prices. Czechia's nascent recovery from the pandemic has been hindered by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Gas shortages are unlikely this winter but further increases in energy prices are a key risk. Inflation, which is well above target, and the rise in the cost of living are causing significant social pressure. Amid a volatile economic environment and high risks to the outlook, policy needs to balance reducing inflation with supporting the most vulnerable. Once uncertainty dissipates, continuing the structural policy agenda will be critical. Labor market policies should continue to improve the integration of women, migrants, and refugees, and facilitate the green and digital economic transformation. The indexation of the retirement age to life expectancy would improve pension sustainability and increase labor supply. While energy security is an immediate priority, policies for the green transformation should continue.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; high-inflation environment; headline inflation; potential GDP; reducing inflation; creating capital inflows; Inflation; Fiscal stance; External sector statistics; Consumption; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change in an Aging World
Mr. Vimal V Thakoor
and
Engin Kara
Climate and demographic changes are two major long-term trends that are evolving simultaneously. The global population is aging, while climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of weather-related disasters and lowering productivity. This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of these three changes in a common framework. Simulation results suggest that while aging drags down the real interest rate, climate change puts upward pressure on the real interest rate and inflation. As climate change intensifies, it will be the dominant factor shaping the macroeconomic variables. This results in higher inflation and a higher debt-to-GDP ratio, requiring tighter fiscal and monetary policies. The results further suggest that economic uncertainty induced by climate change amplifies these effects of climate change.
Keywords:
Demographic change; climate change; natural disasters; simulation result; results summary; disaster shock; effects of climate change; consumption share; Consumption; Aging; Real interest rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Fear Economy: A Theory of Output, Interest, and Safe Assets
Ruchir Agarwal
This paper presents a fear theory of the economy, based on the interplay between fear of rare disasters and the interest rate on safe assets. To do this, I study the macroeconomic consequences of government-administered interest rates in the neoclassical real business cycle model. When the government has the power to fix the safe real interest rate, the gap between the `sticky real safe rate' and the `neutral rate' can generate far-reaching aggregate distortions. When fear exogenously rises, the demand for safe assets rise and the neutral rate falls. If the central bank does not lower the safe rate by the same amount, savings rise leading to a decline in consumption and aggregate demand. The same mechanism works in reverse, when fear falls. Quantitatively, I show that a single fear factor can simultaneously (i) generate cross-correlations in output, labor, consumption, and investment consistent with the postwar US economy; and (ii) generates variation in equity prices, bond prices, and a large risk premium in line with the asset pricing data. Six novel insights emerge from the model: (1) actively regulating the safe interest rate (in both directions) can mitigate the fluctuations generated by fear cycles; (2) recessions will be deeper and longer when central banks accept the zero lower bound and are unwilling to use negative rates; (3) a commitment to use negative rates in recessions—even if never implemented—raises both the short- and long-run real neutral rates, and moderates the business cycle; (4) counter-cyclical fiscal policy can act as disaster insurance and be expansionary by reducing fear; (5) quantitative easing can be narrowly effective only when fear is high at the lower bound; and (6) when fear is high, especially at the lower bound, policies that boost productivity also help fight recessions.
Keywords:
fear; business cycles; interest; safe assets; fear economy; government-administered interest rates; fear theory; business cycle model; fear factor; Output gap; Consumption; Zero lower bound; Interest rate floor; Yield curve; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Germany: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report on Montenegro highlights Public Investment Management Assessment. Due to the importance of the tourism sector, the pandemic has had a deep economic impact. In addition, as government debt already exceeds one hundred percent of gross domestic product, fiscal space to increase public investment is limited. In this context, a strengthened public investment management (PIM) framework would contribute to maximize its impact on economic growth. Recent trends in capital expenditures and capital stock signal that there is room for improving the efficiency of public investments in Montenegro. The authorities have introduced several reforms in recent years to strengthen the PIM framework. Through the reform efforts, Montenegro has developed a stronger PIM framework but there is still room for improvement. Notwithstanding these efforts, there is significant room to strengthen public investment management in Montenegro. IMF estimates indicate that there is an efficiency gap of 35 percent. Public investment could better support the economic recovery if specific actions are taken to improve the PIM framework.
Keywords:
gas shortage scenario; GDP impact; International Monetary Fund Washington, d.c; C. GDP; gas shutoff scenario; Consumption; Inflation; Fuel prices; Energy pricing; Operational risk; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Energy prices
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Economic Impacts on Germany of a Potential Russian Gas Shutoff
Ting Lan
,
Galen Sher
, and
Jing Zhou
We analyze the potential impacts on the German economy of a complete and permanent shutoff of the remaining Russian natural gas supplies to Europe, accounting for the curtailment of flows through Nord Stream 1 that has already taken place. We find that such a scenario could lead to gas shortages of 9 percent of national consumption in the second half of 2022, 10 percent in 2023 and 4 percent in 2024, which would be worse in the winter months, and would likely fall on firms, given legal protections on households. We combine the effects of less gas on production with the consequent effects of reduced supply of intermediate goods and services to downstream firms, and with reduced economic activity due to rising uncertainty. Together, these three channels reduce German GDP relative to baseline levels by about 1.5 percent in 2022, 2.7 percent in 2023 and 0.4 percent in 2024, with no gains in subsequent years from deferred economic activity. The associated rise in wholesale gas prices could increase inflation by about 2 percentage points on average in 2022 and 2023. Our simulations suggest that the economic impacts can be reduced significantly by having households voluntarily share a small part of the burden, and by rationing gas supplies more to more gas-intensive and downstream firms. We also suggest other ways to enhance German energy security.
Keywords:
Energy supply; energy security; natural gas; embargo; rationing; fragmentation; GDP impact; gas shortage scenario; energy inflation Passthrough; impacts of gas shortage; gas supplies; Consumption; Inflation; Fuel prices; Energy pricing; Operational risk; Europe; Asia and Pacific; gas consumption; production function; gas usage requirement; gas shock; Energy prices
Cover IMF Working Papers
Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply
Gabriel Di Bella
,
Mr. Mark J Flanagan
,
Karim Foda
,
Svitlana Maslova
,
Alex Pienkowski
,
Martin Stuermer
, and
Mr. Frederik G Toscani
This paper analyzes the implications of disruptions in Russian gas for Europe’s balances and economic output. Alternative sources could replace up to 70 percent of Russian gas, allowing Europe to avoid shortages during a temporary disruption of around 6 months. However, a longer full shut-off of Russian gas to the whole of Europe would likely interact with infrastructure bottlenecks to produce very high prices and significant shortages in some countries, with parts of Central and Eastern Europe most vulnerable. With natural gas an important input in production, the capacity of the economy would shrink. Our findings suggest that in the short term, the most vulnerable countries in Central and Eastern Europe — Hungary, Slovak Republic and Czechia — face a risk of shortages of as much as 40 percent of gas consumption and of gross domestic product shrinking by up to 6 percent. The effects on Austria, Germany and Italy would also be significant, but would depend on the exact nature of remaining bottlenecks at the time of the shutoff and consequently the ability of the market to adjust. Many other countries are unlikely to face such constraints and the impact on GDP would be moderate—possibly under 1 percent. Immediate policy priorities center on actions to mitigate impacts, including to eliminate constraints to a more integrated gas market via easing infrastructure bottlenecks, to accelerate efforts in defining and agreeing solidarity contributions, and to promote stronger pricing pass through and other measures to generate greater energy savings. National responses and RePowerEU contains many important measures to help address these challenges, but immediate coordinated action is called for, with specific opportunities in each of these areas.
Keywords:
Energy supply; natural gas; production output; EU gas import capacity; infrastructure bottleneck; supply shut-off; LNG market; output effect; Natural gas sector; Imports; Consumption; Supply shocks; Operational risk; Europe; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; energy shut-off; natural gas in Europe