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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 293 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Czech Republic is evolving from a heavily manufacturing-based, export-oriented hub to a more mature and diversified economy. Non-auto manufacturing, energy, and construction, once important Czech engines of growth, have run out of steam, hampered by decelerating productivity growth, higher energy costs, and sluggish demand. The auto industry has shown resilience so far, but the required transition to electric vehicles and exposure to foreign competition are set to exert significant pressures in the coming years. Higher value-added sectors, including ICT services, are constrained by lack of skilled labor and limited access to capital, undermining their ability to compete in global markets.
Keywords:
currency of the Czech Republic; FSAP update; FSAP participation; services inflation; managing inflation risk; Inflation; Productivity; Labor markets; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
macro News; macroeconomics news; ECB monetary policy surprise; EU TFP frontier; inflation expectation; Automobile industry; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Asset prices; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
TLTRO Spillovers Outside the Euro Area
Carolina Lopez-Quiles
and
Adil Mohommad
We examine spillovers from ECB’s TLTROs on European countries outside the euro area. Using individual banks’ balance sheet data, we find that TLTROs lowered funding and lending rates for foreign-owned subsidiaries, especially in emerging market economies. We also find an increase in profitability among foreign subsidiaries and no effects on solvency risk. The effects are sizable--every €1 billion in exposure to TLTROs via parent banks is associated with 0.2 bps reduction in deposit rates and 0.4 bps reduction in lending rates of foreign subsidiaries. This underscores the need to factor euro area monetary policies into policy settings outside the euro area.
Keywords:
Monetary policy; spillovers; TLTRO; CESEE; TLTRO operation; TLTRO exposure; spillovers from ECB's TLTROs; subsidiaries' share; ECB's Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations; Deposit rates; Bank credit; Foreign banks; Business cycles; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Mirage of Falling R-stars
Ales Bulir
and
Jan Vlcek
Was the recent decline in real interest rates driven by a diminishing natural real interest rate, or have we observed a long sequence of shocks that have pushed market rates below the equilibrium level? In this paper we show on a sample of 12 open economies that once we account for equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation/depreciation, the natural real interest rate in the 2000s and 2010s is no longer found to be declining to near or below zero. The explicit inclusion of equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation in the identification of the natural rate is the main deviation from the Laubach-Williams approach. On top of that, we use a full-blown semi-structural model with a monetary policy rule and expectations. Bayesian estimation is used to obtain parameter values for individual countries.
Keywords:
r-star; zero lower bound; equilibrium real appreciation; Penn effect; HLW framework; open-economy extension; ales Bulfr; Time-Invariant Estimates; HLW estimate; Real interest rates; Real exchange rates; Central bank policy rate; Exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bank Profitability in Europe: Not Here to Stay
Ruo Chen
,
Vincenzo Guzzo
,
Fazurin Jamaludin
,
Adil Mohommad
,
Ritong Qu
, and
Yueshu Zhao
Slower passthrough of policy interest rate hikes to deposit rates relative to their loan rates has led to sharply wider bank net interest margins. Combined with resilient asset quality, wider net interest margins supported record profits for European banks in 2023. Drawing on historical data from the balance sheets and income statements of over 2,500 European banks, this paper shows that abnormally high profits are expected to fade soon as interest income will decline, once policy rates start being lowered, while higher impairment costs historically have weighed on profits with a lag. Moreover, a number of structural factors that have eroded the performance of European banks in the past two decades have largely remained unaddressed and will continue being a drag on profits and capital. Therefore, policymakers should encourage banks to preserve capital buffers and build resilience to future shocks, while exercising caution when considering taxes on profits or other measures that could divert potential sources of capital from banks.
Keywords:
European banks; bank profits; interest rate margins; asset quality; bank capital; bank taxation.; bank profit; interest rate margin; bank taxation; impairment cost; Bank soundness; Financial statements; Income; Yield curve; Central bank policy rate; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belgium: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper focuses on the report on Belgium’s Financial Sector Assessment Program. Economic activity has slowed, core inflation remains high, and the fiscal outlook is challenging. The financial sector has remained resilient despite a series of shocks. Key financial stability risks emanate from the large, concentrated, and interconnected banking sector, private sector indebtedness, and high exposure to real estate. Bank solvency stress tests indicate that the financial sector is resilient under severe macroeconomic shocks. Although there is some heterogeneity across financial institutions, all banks would satisfy the minimum capital criteria. The authorities should enhance the National Bank of Belgium’s powers to set macroprudential policy in line with its financial stability mandate. In the near term, the extension/ setting of capital requirements should be streamlined, without the requirement for government approval. There is scope to strengthen the corporate governance framework and expectations for banks, and boost prudential supervisory staffing, especially given upcoming regulatory developments.
Keywords:
bank solvency stress tests; insurance solvency stress test; NBB coordination; corporate governance framework; cash flow; B. bank Oversight; market share; Stress testing; Financial sector stability; Insurance companies; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability
Ms. Laura Valderrama
Housing market developments are in the spotlight in Europe. Over-stretched valuations amid tightening financial conditions and a cost-of-living crisis have increased risks of a sustained downturn and exposed challenging trade-offs for macroprudential policy between ensuring financial system resilience and smoothing the macro-financial cycle. Against this backdrop, this paper provides detailed considerations regarding how to (re)set macroprudential policy tools in response to housing-related systemic risk in Europe, providing design solutions to avoid unintended consequences during a tightening phase, and navigating the trade-offs between managing the build-up of vulnerabilities and the macro-financial cycle in a downturn. It also proposes a novel framework to measure the effectiveness of tools and avoid overlaps by quantifying the risks addressed by different macroprudential instruments. Finally, it introduces a taxonomy allowing to assess a country’s macroprudential stance and whether adjustments to current policy settings are warranted—such as the relaxation of capital-based tools and possibly some borrower-based measures in the event of a more severe downturn.
Keywords:
Housing markets; household vulnerability; income distribution; economic cycle; financial stability; macroprudential policy.; Macroprudential policy; housing market vulnerability; Policy tool; calibrating Macroprudential policies in Europe amide; Macroprudential Policy stance framework; Countercyclical capital buffers; Mortgages; Housing prices; Credit; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation highlights that Russia’s war in Ukraine has stifled the Czech Republic’s nascent recovery from the pandemic. Uncertainty is high due to the war with risks to economic activity tilted to the downside and risks to inflation tilted to the upside. The economy remains vulnerable to the availability of and further increases in energy and commodity prices. Czechia's nascent recovery from the pandemic has been hindered by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Gas shortages are unlikely this winter but further increases in energy prices are a key risk. Inflation, which is well above target, and the rise in the cost of living are causing significant social pressure. Amid a volatile economic environment and high risks to the outlook, policy needs to balance reducing inflation with supporting the most vulnerable. Once uncertainty dissipates, continuing the structural policy agenda will be critical. Labor market policies should continue to improve the integration of women, migrants, and refugees, and facilitate the green and digital economic transformation. The indexation of the retirement age to life expectancy would improve pension sustainability and increase labor supply. While energy security is an immediate priority, policies for the green transformation should continue.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; high-inflation environment; headline inflation; potential GDP; reducing inflation; creating capital inflows; Inflation; Fiscal stance; External sector statistics; Consumption; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Germany: Financial Sector Assessment Program Technical Note—Macroprudential Policy Framework And Tools
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Germany’s macroprudential policy framework and toolkit are well developed. The FSAP found the institutional arrangements for macroprudential policy to be mostly sound and operating well. Capacity and expertise in risk monitoring is good, thanks to the analytical power and data access of the central bank, and close coordination between the macro- and microprudential arms of the financial supervisory authorities. Germany’s macroprudential toolkit continues to develop. The principal outstanding task is to add powers to set caps on debt-to-income and debt service-to-income ratios on residential real estate loans to the already-established powers over loan-to-value ratios and amortization rates. These additions will place Germany’s toolkit on a par with its peers.
Keywords:
B. household sector vulnerability; MACROPRUDENTIAL policy framework; FSAP's finding; solvency regulation; D. Macroprudential communication; Financial sector stability; Macroprudential policy; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Macroprudential policy instruments; Countercyclical capital buffers; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Supplementary Information; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Czech Republic
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Czech Republic entered the pandemic on a strong economic footing. Amid another surge in virus infections, the outlook is for a continued rebound in activity. However, the risks are tilted to the downside. Inflation remained marginally above the upper tolerance band in 2020 and increased substantially in late 2021. Pressures in the labor market remain. Macrofinancial vulnerabilities persist as house price growth has reached record highs amid significant risk-taking by lenders.
Keywords:
COVID infection; inflation pressure; data release; staff expectation; staff appraisal; Inflation; External sector statistics; Labor markets; Global; Europe