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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Colombia: Technical Assistance Report-Foreign Exchange Market Development and Regulatory Framework Review
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This report provides an overview of the technical assistance provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the Banco de la República to support the authorities in reviewing the regulatory framework and formulating development strategies for the foreign exchange market.
Keywords:
Currency internationalization; regulatory framework; foreign exchange market development; Colombia.; FX Market development strategy; FX channeling; Banco de la República; IMF's Monetary; Currency markets; Currencies; Exchange rate risk; Exchange rates; Global
Cover Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean
Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract

The analysis in the book suggests that LAC countries are facing substantial challenges related to climate change but have tools at their disposal to seize the opportunities that the climate change presents. To maximize opportunities and minimize the risks LAC countries will need to improve flexibility and adaptability of their economies. Policies aimed at supporting the reallocation of labor and capital across sectors, investing in basic skills and human capital, improving transparency and economic governance to encourage investment in technology and know-how, and creating fiscal space to manage the climate transition would help LAC countries position themselves to take advantage of the opportunities afforded by the climate transition.

Keywords:
Climate; Latin America and the Caribbean; mitigation; adaptation; building resilience; IMF staff calculation; climate ambition; bank asset quality; financing climate policy; adaptation investment; Climate change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate policy; Natural disasters; Non-renewable resources; Caribbean; Central America; Global; South America; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Fund’s Income Position for FY 2024 and FY 2025-2026
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper updates the projections of the Fund’s income position for FY 2024 and FY 2025-2026 and proposes related decisions for the current and the following financial years. The paper also includes a proposed decision to keep the margin for the rate of charge unchanged until completion of the review of surcharges, but until no later than end FY 2025, at which time the Board would set the margin for the rest of FY 2025 and FY 2026. The Fund’s overall net income for FY 2024 is projected at about SDR 4.4 billion after taking into account pension-related remeasurement gain and estimated retained investment income of the Endowment Account.
Keywords:
Income Position; Lending Income; Investment Income; Expenditures; Margin for the Rate of Charge; Reserve Accumulation; Precautionary Balances; Pension; Provisioning; Payout; Reimbursement; Remeasurement; Surcharges; outlook factor; GRA FY; FY 2024; review of surcharge; market condition; transparency policy; Income; SDR interest rate; Budget planning and preparation; Credit; Discount rates; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere, October 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere, October 2023
Securing Low Inflation and Nurturing Potential Growth
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

After a stronger-than-expected recovery from the pandemic and continued resilience in early 2023, economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is softening as the effect of tighter policies to combat inflation is taking hold and the external environment is weakening. The early and swift monetary tightening across the region since 2021, together with the withdrawal of most of the pandemic fiscal stimulus and the reversal of external price pressures, have helped put headline inflation on a downward trajectory. Core inflation has also started to ease, as price pressures are becoming less generalized, although it remains elevated amid strong labor markets and positive output gaps in some countries. Banking systems have weathered the rise in interest rates well and are generally healthy, though credit to the private sector is decelerating amid tighter supply conditions and weaker demand.

Keywords:
inflation; regional outlook; fragmentation; global trade; Latin America and the Caribbean; banking systems; volatility; IMF staff calculation; inflation expectation; cash equivalent; contractionary monetary policy; end-of-period inflation; price pressure; inflation gap; inflation projection; headline inflation in Brazil; inflation shock; return on equity; inflation from the inflation target; Fiscal stance; Central bank policy rate; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Purchasing power parity; Caribbean; Central America; South America; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: Technical Assistance Report—Assessment of Financial Stability Report
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical assistance report focuses on Assessment of Financial Stability Report (FSR) in Colombia. The FSR of the Banco de la República of Colombia (BR) provides broad coverage of macroeconomic environment and the assessment of risks in the financial system. The current structure of the FSR appears to work well in covering a range of relevant risks and vulnerabilities as well as topical issues, but there is room for evolution. Efforts to expand forward-looking analyses should continue, including stress testing and sensitivity analyses of the corporate and household sectors and on interconnectedness. A layered communication approach would help adapt the key messages of the FSR to audiences with different levels of expert knowledge and interest. There would be clear gains in deepening the understanding of the channels and interaction between financial stability and monetary policy as the financial system continues to evolve. Enhancing knowledge sharing between staff working on financial stability and monetary policy and further improving information about the sensitivity of various vulnerabilities in the FSR would help monetary policy decision makers, which in turn may have a positive feedback effect on financial stability.
Keywords:
IMF Monetary; MCM department; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; Banco de la República of Colombia; FSR report; Financial sector stability; Stress testing; Financial sector risk; Market risk; Financial sector; Global; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment
Camila Casas
,
Sergii Meleshchuk
, and
Mr. Yannick Timmer
We provide evidence of a new channel through which exchange rates affect trade. Using a novel identification strategy that exploits firms’ maturity structure of foreign currency debt around a large depreciation in Colombia, we show that firms experiencing a stronger debt revaluation of dominant currency debt due to a home currency depreciation compress imports relatively more while exports are unaffected. Dominant currency financing does not lead to an import compression for firms that export, hold foreign currency assets, or are active in the foreign exchange derivatives markets, as they are all hedged against a revaluation of their debt. These findings can be rationalized through the prism of a model with costly state verification and foreign currency borrowing. Quantitatively, the dominant currency financing channel explains a significant part of the external adjustment process in addition to the expenditure switching channel. Pricing exports in the dominant currency, instead of the producer’s currency, mutes the effect of dominant currency financing on trade flows.
Keywords:
Imports; Exports; Foreign Currency Exposure; Capital Structure; Exchange Rates; Debt Revaluation; Hedging; home currency depreciation compress import; financing channel; currency financing; liquidity shock; Currencies; Depreciation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Sovereign-Bank Nexus in Emerging Markets in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Andrea Deghi
,
Mr. Salih Fendoglu
,
Tara Iyer
,
Mr. Hamid R Tabarraei
,
Yizhi Xu
, and
Mustafa Yenice
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the relationship between sovereigns and banks—the so-called sovereign-bank nexus—in emerging market economies to the fore as bank holdings of domestic sovereign debt have surged. This paper examines the empirical relevance of this nexus to assess how it could amplify macro-financial stability risks. The findings show that an increase in sovereign credit risk can adversely affect banks’ balance sheets and credit supply, especially in countries with less-well-capitalized banking systems. Sovereign distress can also impact banks indirectly through the nonfinancial corporate sector by constraining their funding and reducing their capital expenditure. Notably, the effects on banks and corporates are strongly nonlinear in the size of the sovereign distress.
Keywords:
Sovereign-bank nexus; emerging markets; financial stability; sovereign risk; COVID-19; banking sector; corporate investment; outcome variable; Annex I. data description; summary statistics; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Capital adequacy requirements; Commercial banks; Credit default swap; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Bank Independence and Inflation in Latin America—Through the Lens of History
Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome
and
Samuel Pienknagura
We study the link between central bank independence and inflation by providing narrative and empiricial evidence based on Latin America’s experience over the past 100 years. We present a novel historical dataset of central bank independence for 17 Latin American countries and recount the rocky journey traveled by Latin America to achieve central bank independence and price stability. After their creation as independent institutions, central bank independence was eroded in the 1930s at the time of the Great Depression and following the abandonement of the gold exchange standard. Then, by the 1940s, central banks turned into de facto development banks under the aegis of governments, sawing the seeds for high inflation. It took the high inflation episodes of the 1970s and 1980s and the associated major decline in real income, and growing social discontent, to grant central banks political and operational independence to focus on fighting inflation starting in the 1990s. The empirical evidence confirms the strong negative association between central bank independence and inflation and finds that improvements in independence result in a steady decline in inflation. It also shows that high levels of central bank independence are associated with reductions in the likelihood of high inflation episodes, especially when accompanied by reductions in central bank financing to the central government.
Keywords:
Central Bank Independence; Inflation; Latin America; inflation episode; independence result; CBI index; gold exchange; finance government expenditure; inflation distribution; executive branch; fiscal dominance; country level; inflation expectation; term of office; credit to the government; inflation inertia; Latin American country; Central bank autonomy; Central bank legislation; Bank credit; Central bank organization; Central America; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Crisis Management, Resolution, and Safety Nets
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The first mission of the Colombia FSAP was conducted virtually during June 1–21, 2021. This technical note focuses on the developments in the crisis management framework for the banking sector. The assessment examines the Colombian financial safety net and crisis management arrangements in light of the international best practices and standards on resolution and deposit insurance standards.
Keywords:
IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; virtual mission; Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia; D. Resolution tool; coordination mechanism; Grupo de crisis Financiera; Bank resolution framework; Bridge bank; Crisis management; Bank resolution; Central America; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Risk Analysis
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) risk analysis work was conducted in the aftermath of the initial COVID shock and subsequent lockdowns, and while a strong economic recovery was underway in Colombia during 2021. Given the persistent uncertainty around the evolution of the COVID-19 virus, and for the trajectory of the economic recovery, the outlook remained subject to significant revisions throughout the year. While the workstreams took the latest macroeconomic and supervisory data updates into account as much as possible for the various analyses, the test results and their implications should be interpreted with caution due to high uncertainty around the central projections and downside risks.
Keywords:
banking liquidity indicator; FSAP solvency stress test hurdle rates; banking liquidity indices; liquidity risk index; IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program; Stress testing; Liquidity; Commercial banks; Liquidity requirements; Credit; Central America; Global