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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 119 items for :

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  • Central African Republic x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Macrofinancial Risks from Crypto Assets
Ms. Burcu Hacibedel
and
Hector Perez-Saiz
Failures in the crypto space—including the fall of Terra USD and the FTX debacle—have sparked calls for strengthening countries’ policy frameworks for crypto assets, including by enhanced regulation and supervision. How have these heightened concerns about crypto assets been picked up in systemic risk assessment, and what can be done going forward? In this paper, we introduce a conceptual macrofinancial framework to understand and track systemic risks stemming from crypto assets. Specifically, we propose a country-level Crypto-Risk Assessment Matrix (C-RAM) to summarize the main vulnerabilities, useful indicators, potential triggers and potential policy responses related to the crypto sector. We also discuss how experts and officials can weave in specific vulnerabilities stemming from crypto asset activity into their assessment of systemic risk, and how they can provide policy advice and take action to help contain systemic risks when needed.
Keywords:
Crypto assets; vulnerabilities; systemic risk; macrofinancial; analyzing Macrofinancial risk; macro-prudential risk; country-level Crypto-Risk Assessment Matrix; micro-prudential risk; price fluctuation; Virtual currencies; Financial sector; Currencies; Credit risk; Blockchain and DLT; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Republic: Request for a Staff Monitored Program
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
President Touadéra was reelected for a second term, despite attempts by armed groups to prevent the general and presidential elections from being held. While the security situation has improved since these groups’ attacks on Bangui were repulsed in January, the prolonged closure of the trade corridor with Cameroon had a substantial economic and fiscal impact, significantly affecting the growth prospects for this year and the cash position of the government. The government’s relations with development partners have deteriorated causing delays in grants disbursements. The number of Covid-19 cases and deaths temporarily increased in the Spring but has returned to a very low level. The three-year ECF arrangement approved in December 2019 is off track, with most performance criteria and structural benchmarks missed prior to the intensification of the domestic conflict, and the third review has not been completed.
Keywords:
financing challenge; grant financing; IMF's transparency policy; management of the International Monetary Fund; IMF team; Commercial banks; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Staff Report on the Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CEMAC authorities; CEMAC government; BEAC's monetary policy stance; IMF article; BEAC governor; Policy support
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Staff Report on the Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CEMAC authorities; CEMAC government; BEAC's monetary policy stance; IMF article; BEAC governor; Policy support; CEMAC Economic; COVID-19; Fiscal stance; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Oil prices; Global; Central Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Policy recommendation; IMF's transparency policy; Foreign exchange regulations
Cover IMF Working Papers
Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries
Hans Weisfeld
,
Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho
,
Mr. Fabio Comelli
,
Rahul Giri
,
Klaus-Peter Hellwig
,
Chengyu Huang
,
Fei Liu
,
Mrs. Sandra V Lizarazo Ruiz
,
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
, and
Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial vulnerability concepts. The associated early warning systems draw on advances in predictive modeling.
Keywords:
Early warning systems; crisis prediction; machine learning; low-income countries; inflation crisis; stress episode; crisis concept; crisis probability; missed crisis; LIC inflation trend; Inflation; Banking crises; Commodity prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Staff Report on the Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release, Staff Report, and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Tighter macroeconomic and financial policies helped to avert a deeper crisis, and gross external reserves increased more rapidly in recent months, largely exceeding the mid-2019 target. However, reserves are still below the level appropriate for commodityexporting economies (5 months of imports) to absorb terms of trade shocks. Fiscal consolidation has been tilted towards cuts in public investment. This, together with a lack of significant progress in structural reforms, has weighed on growth which remains too low. The outlook for 2019 and beyond foresees further improvement in regional reserves assuming CEMAC countries remain committed to their program objectives and new programs with CAR and Equatorial Guinea could start around end-2019. This outlook is subject to potentially significant risks, including: a significant slowdown in global growth and associated decline in oil prices; a deterioration in the security situation in some countries; and weaker implementation of IMF-supported programs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CEMAC authorities; CEMAC PFM; CEMAC Commission; MCM; FAD CEMAC
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Staff Report on the Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release, Staff Report, and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights annual discussions on Central African Economic and Monetary Community’s (CEMAC) Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs. Tighter macroeconomic and financial policies helped to avert a deeper crisis, and gross external reserves increased more rapidly in recent months, also helped by a stronger implementation of CEMAC foreign exchange regulations. Reforms to support a more diversified and inclusive growth, including by improving governance and the business climate, should gain momentum to make current efforts to buttress the external position of the region sustainable. The outlook for 2019 and beyond foresees further improvement in regional reserves assuming CEMAC countries remain committed to their program objectives and new programs with Cameroon, Central African Republic and Equatorial Guinea could start around end-2019.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CEMAC authorities; CEMAC PFM; CEMAC Commission; MCM; FAD CEMAC
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The regional strategy has helped stabilize the regional economic position thanks to large fiscal consolidation efforts, a tighter monetary policy, and external financial assistance. The external position improved, and external reserves picked up. However, the region remains dependent on oil revenues, with little progress in economic diversification, under-performing budget non-oil revenues and weaknesses in the financial sector. The policy assurances included in BEAC’s letter of December 2018 were implemented as planned and the CEMAC authorities reiterated their full commitment to the strategy and their readiness to implement additional corrective measures if needed. Progress was made towards new IMF-supported program in Congo and Equatorial Guinea.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CEMAC Commission; CEMAC authorities; BEAC; bank; CEMAC country
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The regional strategy has helped stabilize the regional economic position thanks to large fiscal consolidation efforts, a tighter monetary policy, and external financial assistance. The external position improved, and external reserves picked up. However, the region remains dependent on oil revenues, with little progress in economic diversification, under-performing budget non-oil revenues and weaknesses in the financial sector. The policy assurances included in BEAC’s letter of December 2018 were implemented as planned and the CEMAC authorities reiterated their full commitment to the strategy and their readiness to implement additional corrective measures if needed. Progress was made towards new IMF-supported program in Congo and Equatorial Guinea.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CEMAC Commission; CEMAC authorities; BEAC; bank; CEMAC country; liquidity-stressed bank; IMF staff estimate; policy assurance; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Liquidity; Excess liquidity; Central Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The regional strategy has helped to avert an immediate crisis but continues to face headwinds: two countries have yet to enter financing arrangements with the Fund: regional reserves have underperformed despite higher-than-projected oil prices; the projected recovery of non-oil growth has still to materialize; and the security, social, and political context remains challenging. Consistent with the policy assurances it had provided, the BEAC has taken corrective actions, including an increase in its policy rate, to address the NFA underperformance and has made substantial progress toward finalizing by end-year the modernization of the monetary policy operational framework and the drafting of new foreign exchange regulations. A follow-up letter of support provides updated policy assurances on the NFA path. The medium-term outlook continues to see a gradual improvement in the economic and financial situation but is subject to substantial downside risks, including further delays in the approval of financial arrangements with Congo and Equatorial Guinea, lower oil prices, and tighter global financial conditions. The region continues to face daunting challenges to diversify its economy, with a poor business environment and high perception of corruption.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CEMAC Commission; policy; BEAC; CEMAC authorities; country