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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Economic activity has slowed reflecting falling natural gas production, lower public investment execution, financial volatility, and disruptions due to socio-political tensions. Bolivia’s inflation rate remains one of the lowest in the region, sustained by price controls and costly subsidies. The combination of sizable fiscal imbalances, declining natural gas exports, a loss of access to international markets, and the ongoing monetization of the deficit in the context of an exchange rate peg have eroded competitiveness, depleted reserves, and left Bolivia in a precarious position.
Keywords:
market exchange rate volatility; authorities' action; U.S. dollar; Bolivian authorities; government's measure; Public sector; International reserves; Inflation; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Bolivian Authorities
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Supported by favorable terms-of-trade, the economy has recovered more rapidly than expected and output is now nearing pre-COVID levels, although it is expected to remain below the pre-COVID trend during the next five years. The windfall from higher prices for Bolivia’s exports of food, minerals, and natural gas has bolstered private savings, some of which has been channeled to finance the budget deficit. Despite this, ongoing monetary financing, in the context of the fixed exchange regime, continues to drain international reserves. The inflation rate has been one of the lowest in the region, in large part a result of price controls and increased subsidies for food and energy.
Keywords:
U.S. dollar; market exchange rate volatility; staff state; fund staff; Bolivian government; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Public investment spending; Pension spending; International reserves; Public sector; Global; Caribbean; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Bolivia has requested a purchase under the RFI to cover the urgent balance of payments need arising from an ongoing shift in its terms of trade, slowdown in capital flows, and sudden increase in health care expenditure needs, precipitated by the COVID-19 epidemic. Staff assess that Bolivia meets the eligibility requirements for the RFI. Public debt is sustainable, and Bolivia has adequate capacity to repay the Fund.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Executive Board discussion; request; spending; request for emergency
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Bolivia’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). Bolivia has requested a purchase under the RFI to cover the urgent balance of payments need arising from an ongoing shift in its terms of trade, slowdown in capital flows, and sudden increase in health care expenditure needs, precipitated by the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic. The IMF staff assess that Bolivia meets the eligibility requirements for the RFI. Public debt is sustainable, and Bolivia has adequate capacity to repay the IMF. The epidemic will have a substantial impact on Bolivia’s economy, constraining domestic output, reducing export demand, lowering the price of its principal exports, curtailing external financing flows, squeezing fiscal revenues, and increasing expenditures for public health and social support. In IMF staff’s view, Bolivia’s debt remains sustainable over the medium term and, while the outlook remains highly uncertain, Bolivia maintains an adequate capacity to repay the IMF. The IMF staff therefore recommend Board approval of Bolivia’s request for a purchase under the RFI of 100 percent of quota.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Executive Board discussion; request; spending; request for emergency; IMF's emergency assistance; Bolivia support; U.S. dollar; Public sector; Credit; Government debt management; Public enterprises; Global; COVID-19
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again
Mr. Etibar Jafarov
,
Mr. Rodolfo Maino
, and
Mr. Marco Pani
Financial repression (legal restrictions on interest rates, credit allocation, capital movements, and other financial operations) was widely used in the past but was largely abandoned in the liberalization wave of the 1990s, as widespread support for interventionist policies gave way to a renewed conception of government as an impartial referee. Financial repression has come back on the agenda with the surge in public debt in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, and some countries have reintroduced administrative ceilings on interest rates. By distorting market incentives and signals, financial repression induces losses from inefficiency and rent-seeking that are not easily quantified. This study attempts to assess some of these losses by estimating the impact of financial repression on growth using an updated index of interest rate controls covering 90 countries over 45 years. The results suggest that financial repression poses a significant drag on growth, which could amount to 0.4-0.7 percentage points.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; crisis; debt; interest rate restriction; rate of return; bank profitability ratio; crisis coefficient; IRC index; crisis increase; liberalization event; per capita income; liberalization wave; debt crisis coefficient; alternative investment; probability of a crisis; Interest rate policy; Credit; Loans; Interest rate corridor; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Caribbean; Middle East; North Africa
Cover Brazil
Brazil
Boom, Bust, and the Road to Recovery
Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
and
Mr. Krishna Srinivasan

Abstract

Brazil is at crossroads, emerging slowly from a historic recession that was preceded by a huge economic boom. Reasons for the historic bust following a boom are manifold. Policy mistakes were an important contributory factor, and included the pursuit of countercyclical policies, introduced to deal with the effects of the global financial crisis, beyond the point where they were helpful. More fundamentally, it reflects longstanding structural weaknesses plaguing the economy, that also help explain Brazil’s uninspiring growth performance over the past four decades.

Keywords:
BOOK; Brazil; government; trade liberalization; wage bill; commodity exporter; monetary policy; political system; Corruption; Income inequality; Productivity; Personal income; Global; South America; Central America; Caribbean; Middle East; inflation expectation; anti-corruption authority ANAC; reform priority; Inflation; North Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
After years of impressive growth and poverty reduction, Bolivia is facing a more challenging period. Accommodative fiscal and monetary policies combined with lower gas and minerals prices have contributed to continued large twin deficits, foreign reserve losses, and a sharp increase in public debt. External competitiveness has been negatively affected by the appreciating US dollar, high wage growth, and domestic policies that have hindered private sector investment. A definitive change in the policy stance is warranted to restore external balance, minimize a further buildup in vulnerabilities, and promote broad based growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fiscal policy; commodity; exchange rate; U.S. dollar; central bank; exchange regime; accommodative fiscal policy; boom period; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Credit; Commodity prices; Public sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Dollarization and Financial Development
Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister
,
Mr. Jarkko Turunen
, and
Malin Gardberg
Despite significant strides in financial development over the past decades, financial dollarization, as reflected in elevated shares of foreign currency deposits and credit in the banking system, remains common in developing economies. We study the impact of financial dollarization, differentiating across foreign currency deposits and credit on financial depth, access and efficiency for a large sample of emerging market and developing countries over the past two decades. Panel regressions estimated using system GMM show that deposit dollarization has a negative impact on financial deepening on average. This negative impact is dampened in cases with past periods of high inflation. There is also some evidence that dollarization hampers financial efficiency. The results suggest that policy efforts to reduce dollarization can spur faster and safer financial development.
Keywords:
WP; deposit dollarization; dollarization; financial development; financial deepening; financial inclusion; developing economies; credit dollarization; dollarization determinant; dollarization variable; impact of dollarization; Financial sector development; Credit; Bank deposits; Inflation; Eastern Europe
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Seizing the Momentum
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

Keywords:
REO; country abbreviation; commodity exporter; commodity; tourism dependent; IMF staff calculation; commodity price; Fiscal consolidation; Inflation; Income inequality; Caribbean; Global; Central America; South America; Western Hemisphere; inflation expectation; nominal GDP; central bank credibility; headline inflation
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Seizing the Momentum
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

Keywords:
REO; country abbreviation; commodity exporter; commodity