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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper discusses the potential role of carbon pricing for climate mitigation and revenue diversification strategy in Brunei Darussalam. Carbon pricing schemes are gaining momentum worldwide, including in Asia. The paper provides guidance on the choice between carbon taxes and emissions trading systems and their design. The paper compares the impact of several mitigation policies modelled for illustration in Brunei Darussalam. All policies reduce carbon dioxide emissions below baseline levels by 10-50 percent by 2030, with most of the reductions coming from the power generation and industry sectors. The policies also raise revenues equivalent to 1.6–7.2 percent of gross domestic product above the baseline in 2030. The policy yielding the most of emissions reduction and the most revenues is the combination policy of a carbon tax reaching $50 per tonne by 2030 and the fuel subsidies phase-out. The policy yielding smallest emissions reduction and revenues is feebates.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
After successfully weathering the pandemic in 2020, Brunei was hit by new waves of COVID-19, with case numbers going up significantly and new lockdown measures imposed in H2 2021. Reduced activities in mining and LNG manufacturing, combined with the negative impact of new pandemic variants on domestic services, led to a slowdown in the economy. Real GDP contracted by 1.6 percent in 2021. For 2022, growth is projected to rebound to 1.2 percent, on the back of easing of mobility constraints and a positive terms of trade shock due to surges in O&G prices. Inflation, while remaining relatively low at 2.2 percent at end 2021, has increased in 2022 and pressures are expected to remain elevated in the short term, owing to supply disruptions and higher food and fuel prices. The economy continues to diversify, with double-digit growth of the food/agriculture sector and a new fertilizer sector commencing production. The risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, due to potential new COVID-19 variants, increased global uncertainty associated with an escalation of the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening from the US and a larger-than-expected growth slowdown in China. On the upside, higher energy prices would further improve the terms of trade and restore fiscal positions in the short term, while partially contributing to build the buffers needed to ensure stronger intergenerational equity. Strong policy actions are needed to boost medium-term growth and foster resilience.
Mr. Alexander Massara
and
André Mialou
This paper leverages the IMF’s Financial Access Survey (FAS) database to construct a new composite index of financial inclusion. The topic of financial inclusion has gathered significant attention in recent years. Various initiatives have been undertaken by central banks both in advanced and developing countries to promote financial inclusion. The issue has also attracted increasing interest from the international community with the G-20, IMF, and World Bank Group assuming an active role in developing and collecting financial inclusion data and promoting best practices to improve financial inclusion. There is general recognition among policy makers that financial inclusion plays a significant role in sustaining employment, economic growth, and financial stability. Nonetheless, the issue of its robust measurement is still outstanding. The new composite index uses factor analysis to derive a weighting methodology whose absence has been the most persistent of the criticisms of previous indices. Countries are then ranked based on the new composite index, providing an additional analytical tool which could be used for surveillance and policy purposes on a regular basis.
International Monetary Fund
By definition, fiscal dominance impedes the effective implementation of any monetary strategy aimed at controlling inflation. Economies that exhibit oil dominance-a situation in which oil exports largely affect the main macroeconomic indicators-may also exhibit fiscal dominance. However, in this case, the standard indicators used to gauge the presence of fiscal dominance may fail to give the appropriate signals. The main purpose of this paper is twofold: i) to present a simple framework to analyze fiscal dominance in oil exporting countries and ii) to test the hypothesis of the presence of oil dominance/fiscal dominance (OD/FD) in the case of Venezuela. Using VAR and VEC models it is possible to conclude that there is relevant evidence supporting the validity of the OD/FD hypothesis.
International Monetary Fund
This paper describes economic developments in Brunei Darussalam during 1997–98. In 1997, the economy grew by 4 percent led by strong construction and services activities, while average inflation declined to less than 2 percent. Current expenditures were contained, and a recovery in capital expenditures was financed by larger transfers from the Brunei Investment Agency. In 1998, the Brunei economy was adversely affected by the large decline in world price of crude oil, the collapse of a large domestic private company, and the impact of the Asian crisis.
Mr. Charles Enoch
and
Mr. Tomás J. T. Baliño

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the attractions and disadvantages of currency board arrangements in their various institutional configurations. It asks what defines a currency board arrangement, what are their strengths and weaknesses, and what constraints they place on macroeconomic policies. It also reviews country experiences with these arrangements.

International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The annual publication is a record of the IMF's Annual Meeting and contains the opening and closing addresses of the Chairman of the Board of Governors, presentation of the Annual Report by the Managing Director, statements of Governors, committee reports, resolutions, and a list of delegates. Usually published in March.