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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover The Quest for Regional Integration in the East African Community
The Quest for Regional Integration in the East African Community
Mr. Paulo Drummond
,
Mr. S. K Wajid
, and
Mr. Oral Williams

Abstract

The countries in the East African Community (EAC) are among the fastest growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa. The EAC countries are making significant progress toward financial integration, including harmonization of supervisory arrangements and practices and the modernization of monetary policy frameworks. This book focuses on regional integration in the EAC and argues that the establishment of a time table for the eliminating the sensitive-products list and establishing a supranational legal framework for resolving trade disputes are important reforms that should foster regional integration.

Keywords:
BOOK; East African Community; monetary policy; country; market; EAC country; financial market; convergence criteria; EAC member states; market infrastructure; Monetary unions; Exchange rates; Real exchange rates; Currencies; Stock markets; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa; East Africa; Africa; EAC region; EAC banking systems; resident representative; Exchange rate flexibility
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burundi : consultations de 2014 au titre de l’article IV, cinquième revue de l’accord triennal au titre de la facilité élargie de crédit et demande de modification de critères de réalisation : rapport des services du FMI, communiqué de presse et déclaration de l'administrateur pour le Burundi
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
THÈMES PRINCIPAUX Contexte : Depuis les dernières consultations de 2012 au titre de l’article IV, des progrès notables ont été accomplis pour renforcer la stabilité macroéconomique, dans le cadre d’un programme appuyé par le FMI. Pour autant, la poursuite des progrès pourrait être compromise car le pays évolue dans un environnement plus difficile en raison des tensions sociales et politiques croissantes et des grèves fréquentes dans l’attente des élections de 2015. De plus, l’évolution économique récente aggrave les incertitudes qui entourent le soutien budgétaire extérieur. Programme: Le Conseil d’administration a approuvé l’accord triennal au titre de la Facilité élargie de crédit (FEC) le 27 janvier 2012, avec un accès total de 30 millions de DTS. Les première, seconde, troisième et quatrième revues ont été achevées le 27 juillet 2012, le 14 septembre 2013, le 6 septembre 2013 et le 28 février 2014, respectivement. Pour la cinquième revue, tous les critères de réalisation de la fin de mars ont été respectés, mais les recettes budgétaires non pas enregistré les résultats escomptés au cours du premier trimestre de 2014, et des mesures budgétaires correctrices ont été nécessaires (environ 1 % du PIB sur une base annuelle). Les progrès sont satisfaisants s’agissant des réformes structurelles, bien que celles-ci accusent quelques retards. Perspectives et risques: Les perspectives macroéconomiques à moyen terme sont difficiles. Le principal risque à court terme est une intensification des incertitudes liées aux élections, les troubles économiques et la violence, qui auraient des effets sur les investissements et la croissance. Les questions de gouvernance ou les retards de progrès mesurables dans les réformes de gestion des finances publiques (GFP) de même qu’une intensification des tensions politiques pourraient compromettre le soutien des donateurs. Il est vraisemblable que la réintégration des refugiés rapatriés exercera de nouvelles pressions sur le chômage, accroîtra la demande services publics et exacerbera les conflits sociaux relatifs à l’accès aux terres. Point de vue des services du FMI : les services du FMI recommandent l’achèvement de la cinquième revue de l’accord au titre de la FEC, la définition de critères de réalisation et d’objectifs indicatifs révisés pour septembre-décembre 2014, de même que le décaissement de 5 millions de DTS. Les autorités ont consenti à la publication du présent rapport suite à l’achèvement de la revue.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; policy; revenue
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burundi: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
KEY ISSUES Context: Since the last Article IV Consultation in 2012, notable progress has been achieved to enhance macroeconomic stability, underpinned by the Fund-supported program. However, continued progress could be tested as the country faces a more challenging environment, due to increasing social and political tensions and frequent strikes in the run-up to the 2015 elections. Moreover, recent political developments reinforce uncertainties surrounding external budget support. Program: The Executive Board approved the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) on January 27, 2012, with a total access of SDR 30 million. The first, second, third, and fourth reviews were completed on July 27, 2012, February 14, 2013, September 6, 2013, and February 28, 2014, respectively. For the fifth review, all end-March performance criteria were observed, but fiscal revenues underperformed in the first quarter of 2014 requiring corrective fiscal measures (about 1 percent of GDP on an annual basis). Satisfactory progress has been made on structural reforms, albeit with some delays. Outlook and risks: The medium-term macroeconomic outlook is challenging. The principal near-term risk is an intensification of election-related uncertainty, economic disruptions and violence, which would affect investment and growth. Governance issues or delays in making measurable progress in public financial management (PFM) reforms, and heightening of political tensions could curtail donor support. Reintegrating repatriated refugees is likely to add to unemployment pressures, increase demand for public services, and exacerbate social conflict over access to land. Staff Views: The staff recommends the completion of the fifth review under the ECF arrangement, setting of revised performance criteria and indicative targets for September–December 2014, and disbursement of SDR 5 million. The authorities have consented to the publication of this report following the completion of the review.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; policy; revenue; revenue mobilization effort; monetary policy committee; policy credibility; inflation expectation; active market; revenue slippage; Government finance statistics; Fiscal risks; Africa; Southern Africa; East Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burundi : quatrième revue de l’accord au titre de la facilité élargie de crédit — rapport des services du FMI; communiqué de presse
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Principaux thèmes. Contexte : L’adoption rapide de mesures correctives a été décisive pour remettre le programme sur les rails et pour asseoir les perspectives budgétaires sur une base plus saine dans la perspective des élections de 2015. Programme : Le 27 janvier 2012, le Conseil d’administration a approuvé l’accord triennal au titre de la facilité élargie de crédit (FEC), qui assure au pays un niveau d’accès équivalent à 39 % de la quote-part (30 millions de DTS). Les première, deuxième et troisième revues ont été achevées le 27 juillet 2012, le 14 février 2013 et le 6 septembre 2013, respectivement. Pour la quatrième revue, tous les critères de réalisation ont été observés, grâce notamment à l’adoption d’importantes mesures destinées à remettre le programme sur les rails, suite aux dérapages budgétaires enregistrés au début de 2013. Des progrès satisfaisants ont été accomplis sur le front des réformes structurelles. Les entretiens de politique économique se sont centrés sur les mesures propres à insuffler une nouvelle vigueur à la mise en œuvre du programme après les difficultés rencontrées dans l’achèvement de la troisième revue de l’accord FEC. Perspectives et risques : Les perspectives macroéconomiques restent délicates et les vulnérabilités externes persistent sur fond de repli des cours internationaux du café. En excluant l’hypothèse de mauvaises récoltes, les perspectives d’inflation restent favorables du fait de la diminution projetée des prix internationaux des produits alimentaires et énergétiques. Les principaux risques qui pèsent sur les perspectives prendraient la forme d’une fragile internalisation du programme et de tensions en matière de dépenses à la veille des élections. Avis des services du FMI : Les services du FMI recommandent l’achèvement de la quatrième revue de l’accord FEC, la définition de nouveaux critères de réalisation et objectifs indicatifs pour septembre 2014 et le décaissement de 5 millions de DTS. Les autorités ont consenti à la publication du présent rapport suite à l’achèvement de la revue.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; real GDP; ECF arrangement; expenditure pressure
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burundi: Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Burundi’s Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement is discussed. The measures undertaken to enhance fiscal outlook by the 2015 elections are reviewed. Satisfactory progress has been made on structural reforms. Policy discusses have focused on reinvigorating program implementation after the difficulties in completing the third review under the ECF arrangement. The IMF staff recommends the completion of the fourth review under the ECF arrangement, setting of new performance and indicative criteria for September 2014, and the disbursement of SDR 5 million.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; real GDP; ECF arrangement; expenditure pressure; inflation outlook; sustainability indicator; Burundi authorities; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Debt sustainability; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burundi: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria—Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burundi
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper analyzes Burundi’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Policy discussions in the program focus on measures to strengthen fiscal performance, which have been reflected in a revised 2013 budget, bolstering public financial and debt management. The report highlights that the macroeconomic outlook remains difficult, compounded by downside risks related to uncertainties in the external economic environment. Also, the need to preserve debt sustainability continues to anchor medium-term fiscal policy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; Burundian authorities; ECF arrangement; inflation expectation; IMF's executive board; debt management policy; authorities' strategy; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Africa; Southern Africa; Global; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Benchmarking Banking Sector Efficiency Across Regional Blocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Room for Policy?
Mr. Francois Boutin-Dufresne
,
Santiago Peña
,
Mr. Oral Williams
, and
Mr. Tomasz A. Zawisza
This paper examines the determinants of net interest margins in four regional blocks in Sub-Saharan Africa and one comparator block in the Eastern Caribbean. Using bank-level data, we find that countries with a high level of operating costs, a high ratio of equity to total assets and high treasury bill interest rates have higher net interest margins. Moreover, high operating costs are associated with low measures of institutional quality and a small size of bank operations. We find support for the view that market structure is also partly responsible for high net interest margins in Sub-Saharan Africa. If interpreted causally, high operating costs and a high ratio of equity to total assets and, indirectly, institutional factors such as the rule of law, are the most important factors in accounting for high interest margins in the East African Community, relative to other regions.
Keywords:
WP; market structure; bank; operating cost; loan; Financial intermediation efficiency; net interest margins; economies of scale; institutions.; interest margin; bank characteristic; system GMM; SSA bank; bank equity; Estimation techniques; Loans; Treasury bills and bonds; Loan loss provisions; Stocks; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community: An Empirical Investigation
Mr. Hamid R Davoodi
,
S. V. S. Dixit
, and
Gabor Pinter
Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.
Keywords:
WP; price level; contractionary monetary policy; exchange rate; central bank; money multiplier; Monetary policy; reserve money; policy rate; vector autoregressions; monetary policy shock; transmission mechanism; monetary policy authority; interest rate channel; rising prices; monetary policy transmission; Monetary base; Central bank policy rate; Vector autoregression; Credit; Exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burundi: Consultations de 2012 au titre de l’article IV et première revue de l’accord triennal au titre de la facilité élargie de crédit et de mande de modification de critères—Rapport des services du FMI, note d’information au public et communiqué de presse sur les délibérations du Conseil d’administration, et déclaration de l’Administrateur pour le Burundi
International Monetary Fund
Le Burundi est l’un des pays les plus pauvres au monde. Le PIB par habitant est d’environ 255 dollars et plus de deux tiers de la population vit en-dessous du seuil de la pauvreté. Le pays progresse vers les objectifs du Millénaire pour le développement (OMD) mais les probabilités de les atteindre d’ici 2015 restent limitées.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; inflation expectation; executive board's decision; authorities' monetary policy framework
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burundi: 2012 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria: Staff Report; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burundi
International Monetary Fund
This 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that despite a difficult economic and social context, Burundi has made steady, though uneven, progress in implementing its Extended Credit Facility (ECF)-supported economic reforms. Real GDP growth is estimated to have increased to 4.2 percent in 2011. The medium-term macroeconomic outlook is challenging. Risks emanate from a delicate social situation given persistent shocks and the high cost of living. Executive Directors have emphasized the importance of pursuing public financial management reforms to foster greater transparency and accountability, and to strengthen institutional capacity.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; inflation expectation; executive board's decision; authorities' monetary policy framework; ECF arrangement; revenue reform; Burundian authorities; expenditure measure; headline inflation; Credit; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Monetary statistics; Asia and Pacific