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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 79 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
ECB Spillovers to Emerging Europe: The Past and Current Experience
Philipp Engler
,
Gianluigi Ferrucci
,
Pawel Zabczyk
, and
Tianxiao Zheng
We provide new evidence on the spillover effects of ECB monetary policy shocks to emerging European economies, using a combination of empirical methods and model-based simulations and focusing on spillovers from interest rate and balance sheet policies implemented by the ECB. We consider an event study set around the ECB policy announcement in June 2022 and also use local projections to estimate regional spillovers in a panel of 16 Emerging European countries spanning 1999 to 2022. Identifying ECB monetary policy shocks as the unexplained component of changes in the three-month Euribor futures rate, we find that ECB monetary policy tightening induces more than one-for-one changes in government bond yields in Emerging Europe, as well as sizable increases in sovereign spreads, domestic currency depreciations, and significantly lower output. Model simulations using a two-country DSGE calibrated to the euro area and its Eastern European neighbors reveal that a conventional tightening, achieved through interest rate increases, provides a more favorable inflation-output trade-off compared to balance sheet tightenings. The extent of spillovers from quantitative tightening depends on the speed of balance sheet reduction, and it is larger under a fixed exchange rate regime.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Quantitative Easing; International Spillovers; ECB monetary policy tightening; ECB policy announcement; ECB spillover; ECB monetary policy shock; monetary policy spillover; ECB asset purchase portfolio; Spillovers; Exchange rate arrangements; Monetary tightening; Central bank policy rate; Exchange rates; Europe; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Mirage of Falling R-stars
Ales Bulir
and
Jan Vlcek
Was the recent decline in real interest rates driven by a diminishing natural real interest rate, or have we observed a long sequence of shocks that have pushed market rates below the equilibrium level? In this paper we show on a sample of 12 open economies that once we account for equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation/depreciation, the natural real interest rate in the 2000s and 2010s is no longer found to be declining to near or below zero. The explicit inclusion of equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation in the identification of the natural rate is the main deviation from the Laubach-Williams approach. On top of that, we use a full-blown semi-structural model with a monetary policy rule and expectations. Bayesian estimation is used to obtain parameter values for individual countries.
Keywords:
r-star; zero lower bound; equilibrium real appreciation; Penn effect; HLW framework; open-economy extension; ales Bulfr; Time-Invariant Estimates; HLW estimate; Real interest rates; Real exchange rates; Central bank policy rate; Exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper provides an overview of interest rate dynamics in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in relation to global and euro area trends following the recent cycle of monetary tightening. It analyzes the impact of interest rate dynamics on capital allocation both domestically and externally, with a focus on capital outflows. It concludes that the wider spread between domestic interest rates and euro area short-term rates has been associated with capital outflows of around KM 1.7 billion since the European Central Bank started tightening monetary policy in July 2022, mostly in the form of money market placements in the euro area. It also shows that the compression of local interest rates and the few alternative investment opportunities in a limited market appear to have resulted in households and firms placing most of their funds in short-term deposits, making bank funding less stable than under a longer maturity structure. It notes that this lack of investment opportunities may lead to crowding into the real estate sector, with possible implications for financial stability in the long term.
Keywords:
A. labor market market trend; lending interest rate dynamics; interest rate differential; BiH labor market indicator; wage development; capital allocation; Employment; Labor markets; Wage adjustments; Wages; Global; Europe
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Surviving Low Interest Rates Central Banks in Kosovo and Other Western Balkan Countries: Republic of Kosovo
Mr. Si Guo
Interest income from foreign reserves is one of the main revenue sources for most emerging market central banks. For central banks in the Western Balkan region, the low global interest rates during 2008–2021 negatively affected their revenues, and the impact was more pronounced for central banks in Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina because they cannot use seigniorage to finance their operations. This paper explores how these central banks coped with the long period of low-interest rates. The main finding is that the decline in interest income from foreign reserves was partially compensated by higher fees, commissions, and other regulatory revenues.
Keywords:
Central bank; Low interest rates; Kosovo; Montenegro; Bosinia; Herzegovina; interest income; central banks in Kosovo; emerging market central banks; rising interest rates; personnel cost-to-GDP ratio; Income; International reserves; Central bank rates; Government securities; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Inclusion: What Have We Learned So Far? What Do We Have to Learn?
Mr. Adolfo Barajas
,
Thorsten Beck
,
Mohammed Belhaj
, and
Samy Ben Naceur
The past two decades have seen a rapid increase in interest in financial inclusion, both from policymakers and researchers. This paper surveys the main findings from the literature, documenting the trends over time and gaps that have arisen across regions, income levels, and gender, among others. It points out that structural, as well as policy-related, factors, such as encouraging banking competition or channeling government payments through bank accounts, play an important role, and describes the potential macro and microeconomic benefits that can be derived from greater financial inclusion. It argues that policy should aim to identify and reduce frictions holding back financial inclusion, rather than targeting specific levels of inclusion. Finally, it suggests areas for future research.
Keywords:
WP; bank account; economic growth; incorporated firm; financial activity; household enterprise; loan officer; Financial Inclusion; Financial Development; Fintech; Economic Growth; Income Inequality; Financial Frictions; financial system; external finance; private sector; comparative advantage; Credit; Mobile banking; Financial sector development; Global; fixed cost; credit market; firm owner; firms' use
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bosnia and Herzegovina
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). RFI is expected to help provide support for scaling up priority spending on health and social assistance, while preserving debt sustainability. Preserving the currency board arrangement and raising the resilience of the banking system play a crucial role for restoring external and internal balances. High frequency monitoring of the banks, including their liquidity positions and asset quality, is crucial at this juncture. Economic activity is tentatively projected to decline by 5 percent in 2020 on account of a pronounced fall in exports and remittances and reduced domestic demand and supply. High political uncertainties pose additional downside risks. Despite a recent easing of political tensions, the complexity of the political environment is a downside risk, which could lead to policy slippage and weakened response measures. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a purchase under the RFI considering the urgent nature of the external financing needs caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 crisis.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BiH authorities; Bosnia-Herzegovina; emergency financing request; SDR; Executive Board discussion; IMF lending tracker; donor support; bank depositor; COVID-19; Government finance statistics; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Technical Assistance Report-Implementation of a New Reserve Requirement Framework
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance (TA) report on Bosnia and Herzegovina highlights that the negative spread in a context of structural lower returns on foreign exchange reserves and sizable capital inflows has led to a gradual and steady erosion of the currency board coverage ratio. The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) requested Technical Assistance to review its reserve requirement framework. The mission recommends aligning the remuneration of reserve requirements on foreign exchange liabilities to the CBBH’s opportunity cost. The mission also recommends prescribing the fulfilment in foreign currency of the reserve requirements for foreign currency liabilities. It also suggested altering the remuneration scheme of domestic reserve requirements. In order to be neutral from an intermediation perspective, the reserve requirement remuneration should be aligned to the market-neutral uncovered interest rate parity rate, whereas the remuneration of excess reserves may take place significantly below the market-neutral rate but at or above the foreign currency remuneration rate. The CBBH may benefit from a constructive dialogue with the Area Department or TA to set the new rates of remuneration of domestic reserve requirement and excess reserves.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; remuneration rate; coverage ratio; opportunity cost; FX reserve; asset yield; management implication; maturing FX funding; reserve requirements; reserve account; Reserve requirements; Currencies; Government liabilities; International reserves; Reserve currencies; Eastern Europe; Southern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Technical Assistance Report-Implementation of a New Reserve Requirement Framework
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Since 2014, the CBBH has been exposed to a negative spread on the reinvestment of the reserve requirements. Until 2014, the CBBH remunerated reserve requirements on the basis of the returns achieved on their reinvestment in the euro area money market. In 2014, when the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the deposit facility rate below zero, the CBBH decided not to follow the ECB in the remuneration of reserve requirements and to floor such remuneration to zero. Subsequently, in 2016, the CBBH decided to remunerate excess reserves at 50 percent of the ECB deposit facility rate and to continue remunerating reserve requirements at 0 percent. This exposes the CBBH to a negative spread of about 0.25 percent and 0.45 percent between the reinvestment yield and the remuneration of excess reserves and reserve requirements, respectively.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; remuneration rate; coverage ratio; opportunity cost; FX reserve; asset yield; management implication; maturing FX funding
Cover Departmental Papers
Reassessing the Role of State-Owned Enterprises in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe
Christine J. Richmond
,
Ms. Dora Benedek
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
,
Bobana Cegar
,
Mr. Peter Dohlman
,
Michelle Hassine
,
Beata Jajko
,
Piotr Kopyrski
,
Maksym Markevych
,
Mr. Jacques A Miniane
,
Mr. Francisco J Parodi
,
Gabor Pula
,
Mr. James Roaf
,
Min Kyu Song
,
Mariya Sviderskaya
,
Ms. Rima A Turk
, and
Mr. Sebastian Weber
The Central, Eastern, and South Eastern European (CESEE) region is ripe for a reassessment of the role of the state in economic activity. The rapid income convergence with Western Europe of the early 2000s was not always equally shared across society, and it has now slowed dramatically in many countries of the region.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; private sector; CESEE country; country authorities; economic activity; return on assets; ownership policy; IMF staff calculation; return on equity; holding company; support SOEs; country authority datum; composite index; aluminum company Hydro Aluminum A.S.; company Hydro Aluminum A.S.; SOE performance; government interference; Public enterprises; Privatization; Corporate governance; Employment; Global; Eastern Europe; SOE governance; CESEE region SOB; SOE presence; governance index; Total factor productivity; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2017 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Extension of the Arrangement, Rephasing of Purchases, and Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bosnia and Herzegovina
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the macroeconomic conditions in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) have remained stable. BiH has made progress in reducing internal and external imbalances in recent years, thanks to a prudent fiscal position, and a strong monetary anchor provided by the currency board. However, job creation has been limited, unemployment has remained high, particularly among the youth, and the income convergence with the European Union has stalled. Fiscal stability has been maintained, mainly through continued restraint on current government spending. Progress in improving budget composition has been limited and reforms of state enterprises have not progressed as envisaged.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Bosnia-Herzegovina; authority; wage bill saving; SDR; authorities in the FBiH; banking sector legislation; executive board's decision; authorities of the FBiH; public-sector arrears; Capital spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Government finance statistics; Europe