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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Aruba: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Stability Diagnostic and Scoping Mission
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This technical assistance report on Aruba highlights the financial stability diagnostic and scoping mission. The economy of Aruba is tourist dependent, which is an important source of vulnerability. The major source of risk comes from lending. Banks are increasingly exposed to the real estate market and compete with nonregulated lenders. Residential house prices have increased significantly in some regions since the start of the pandemic driven by strong demand from nonresidential buyers as well as higher construction costs due to coronavirus disease-related supply constraints. The future Financial Stability Department (FSD) is advised to develop a strategy on Macroprudential Policy (MaP). Based on the macroprudential strategy, the FSD should prepare the methodology for the introduction of the MaP instruments chosen as well as ensure the necessary preparations in terms of data collection for this purpose. The data available to the Central Bank of Aruba is sufficient for starting systemic risk monitoring, but some data gaps should be addressed. The monitoring of systemic risk and the development of macroprudential tools requires more granular, frequent, and timely data.
Keywords:
CARTAC mission; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; bank FIS; mortgage bank; bank data; c. CBA; lending portfolio; Financial sector stability; Mortgages; Commercial banks; Housing prices; Loans; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trinity Strikes Back: Monetary Independence and Inflation in the Caribbean
Mr. Serhan Cevik
and
Tianle Zhu
Monetary independence is at the core of the macroeconomic policy trilemma stating that an independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate and free movement of capital cannot exist at the same time. This study examines the relationship between monetary autonomy and inflation dynamics in a panel of Caribbean countries over the period 1980–2017. The empirical results show that monetary independence is a significant factor in determining inflation, even after controlling for macroeconomic developments. In other words, greater monetary policy independence, measured as a country’s ability to conduct its own monetary policy for domestic purposes independent of external monetary influences, leads to lower consumer price inflation. This relationship—robust to alternative specifications and estimation methodologies—has clear policy implications, especially for countries that maintain pegged exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar with a critical bearing on monetary autonomy.
Keywords:
WP; independence; country; inflation dynamics; Macroeconomic trilemma; monetary independence; exchange rate fexibility; inflation; consumer price inflation; inflation aversion; system GMM identification assumption; inflation in the Caribbean; dynamics in a group; GMM estimation; monetary policy autonomy; Monetary policy frameworks; Exchange rate arrangements; Conventional peg; Central bank autonomy; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands - Aruba: 2019 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that Aruba’s economic recovery continues, although at a slowing pace. The authorities have managed well the impact of the crisis in Venezuela through diversification of product markets and tourism sources. Nonetheless, a deepening of the crisis is a downside risk—mainly through a potentially sizable influx of immigrants and refugees. It is recommended to identify additional reform measures to achieve Aruba’s fiscal targets. These measures should involve a mix of revenue increases and expenditure restraint, and be prioritized, sequenced, equitable, and well-communicated to minimize implementation risks and ensure the measures’ durability. The government devised a reform agenda with fiscal consolidation as a key pillar. Additional measures are needed to achieve the authorities’ fiscal targets. The additional adjustment should contain a mix of tax reforms and expenditure rationalization. The fiscal measures in 2019 are expected to deliver a large upfront increase in revenues but it will be important to strike a balance between revenue increases and expenditure restraint in subsequent years.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Aruba; GDP; article IV consultation discussion; discussion; Last Article IV consultation discussion; government finance statistics; central bank; IMF staff estimate; money market rate; Tourism; Fiscal consolidation; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation Discussions
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Aruba has been recovering from a severe double-dip recession. The economy faced two major shocks over the past five years—the global financial crisis and shutdown of the Valero oil refinery in 2012. After a strong recovery in 2013 with growth reaching 4.75 percent, the pace of activity moderated in 2014. In 2015, growth is projected to rise to 2.25 percent. The tourism sector—the mainstay of the Aruban economy—is envisaged to grow, albeit at a slower rate. Moreover, domestic demand is slated to recover notably amid subsiding policy uncertainty and as key public-private partnership projects move forward.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; Aruba; financing; below-the-line financing; Aruban economy; money market rate; financing category; Aruba's reputation; Tourism; Commercial banks; Renewable energy; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands: Aruba: 2013 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report, Informational Annex, Press Release
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic output in Aruba remains 12 percent below its pre-crisis level, with recovery slower than others in the Caribbean region. The non-oil current account (CA) balance, which mostly reflects developments in the tourism sector, has improved since mid-2000 reaching a balanced position in 2012. The overall CA balance, however, after being in surplus for years, showed volatilities in recent years reflecting oil-sector developments. In 2012, it recorded a surplus of 5 percent of GDP. In 2013, real output is projected to grow by 1¼ percent. Robust tourism growth and some pickup in consumption from projected deflation will support the subdued near-term recovery.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Aruba; financing; holding; below-the-line financing; government finance statistics; financing category; money market rate; deficit beginning; Tourism; Caribbean; South America; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands: Curaçao and Saint Maarten: 2011 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion
International Monetary Fund
The two newly autonomous countries within the Kingdom of the Netherlands face substantial challenges. Growth has been low, and unemployment high. The current account deficit has widened to worrisome levels, increasing the vulnerability of the peg to the U.S. dollar and stimulating calls for dollarizing or dissolving the currency union. A substantial adjustment is needed to bring the underlying current account deficit to historically sustainable levels over the medium term. This could be facilitated by measures to restrain credit growth, supported by fiscal consolidation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; consumer price index; deficit; expenditure; total consumer price index; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Netherlands Antillies debt; exchange rate; deficit outcome; central bank; Current account deficits; Debt relief; Exports; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Aruba: 2010 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Staff Report; Informational Annex; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of the Netherlands-Aruba
International Monetary Fund
Aruba has an open economy with a history of stability-oriented macroeconomic policies. Adverse external shocks have led to a decline in tourism and disruption of oil refinery operations. Serious fiscal challenges need to be addressed and a fiscal adjustment program is needed to safeguard the sustainability of the public finances. Expenditure cuts and the central bank’s switch from a credit ceiling to an unremunerated reserves requirement as key policy tool is commended. The new monetary policy framework will likely increase the challenges to prudential regulation and supervision.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; discussion; staff appraisal; Aruba; Netherlands; letters to Aruba's commercial banks; policy stance; IMF staff representative; market share; Commercial banks; Loans; Tourism; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cross-Border Investment in Small International Financial Centers
Mr. Philip R. Lane
and
Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
This note documents and assesses the role of small financial centers in the international financial system using a newly-assembled dataset. It presents estimates of the foreign asset and liability positions for a number of the most important small financial centers, and places these into context by calculating the importance of these locations in the global aggregate of cross-border investment positions. It also reports some information on bilateral cross-border investment patterns, highlighting which countries engage in financial trade with small financial centers.
Keywords:
WP; portfolio; holding; SIFCs; liability; Capital flows; financial centers; international investment position; BIS securities statistics; vis-à-vis SIFCs; portfolio equity share; SIFC Group; portfolio liability; Financial statements; Foreign direct investment; Offshore financial centers; Portfolio investment; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands: Aruba: Assessment of Financial Sector Supervision and Regulation
International Monetary Fund
This assessment of financial sector supervision and regulation for the Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba discusses its financial sector, which is primarily domestically orientated with limited offshore financial sector activity. The system for banking supervision and regulation in Aruba was found to be compliant or largely compliant with 19 of the Basel Core Principles (BCP). Aruba had improved its rules and systems, and was cooperating effectively with other jurisdictions on antimoney laundering (AML).
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; CBA; Aruba; parent bank; CBA issue guideline; shell bank; CBA requirements; CBA authority; Aruba's bank; Insurance companies; Commercial banks; Offshore financial centers; Market risk; Insurance; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands: Aruba: Detailed Assessment of Compliance with the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses detailed assessment of compliance with the Basel Core Principles for effective banking supervision for the Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba. Aruba’s offshore banking sector is small by international standards, with only two institutions registered. The mission also recommends that the Central Bank of Aruba (CBA) meet with management to better understand their plans for their Aruban operations and their financial results. Aruba remains open to foreign investment and migrant workers, who make up 40 percent of the population and have been key contributors to economic growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; risk management; credit institution; CBA authority; CBA examiner; CBA's assertion; supervision department; credit risk; country risk; Credit; Market risk; Credit risk; External audit; Loans; Caribbean