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Philipp Engler
,
Gianluigi Ferrucci
,
Pawel Zabczyk
, and
Tianxiao Zheng
We provide new evidence on the spillover effects of ECB monetary policy shocks to emerging European economies, using a combination of empirical methods and model-based simulations and focusing on spillovers from interest rate and balance sheet policies implemented by the ECB. We consider an event study set around the ECB policy announcement in June 2022 and also use local projections to estimate regional spillovers in a panel of 16 Emerging European countries spanning 1999 to 2022. Identifying ECB monetary policy shocks as the unexplained component of changes in the three-month Euribor futures rate, we find that ECB monetary policy tightening induces more than one-for-one changes in government bond yields in Emerging Europe, as well as sizable increases in sovereign spreads, domestic currency depreciations, and significantly lower output. Model simulations using a two-country DSGE calibrated to the euro area and its Eastern European neighbors reveal that a conventional tightening, achieved through interest rate increases, provides a more favorable inflation-output trade-off compared to balance sheet tightenings. The extent of spillovers from quantitative tightening depends on the speed of balance sheet reduction, and it is larger under a fixed exchange rate regime.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on challenges and policies regarding climate change in the Republic of North Macedonia. A scale-up of private and public investments, along with decommission of old and polluting coal-based power plants, is needed to adapt to climate change and meet emissions targets as part of the green transition. The EU-Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (EU-CBAM) from 2026 will affect North Macedonia, and the authorities should consider a gradual introduction of carbon taxation to prepare for the EU-CBAM, as also envisioned in existing legislation. The introduction of the EU CBAM will influence North Macedonia’s exports to the EU negatively, as well as revenue collected, as part of the EU CBAM will be foregone revenue for North Macedonia. Instead, North Macedonia should consider a form of carbon taxation, as also envisioned in existing legislation, to collect the revenue by the state, as well as recycle part of this to mitigate the impact of the carbon tax and further support the green transition.
Khaled AlAjmi
,
Jose Deodoro
,
Mr. Ashraf Khan
, and
Kei Moriya
Using the 2010, 2015, and 2020/2021 datasets of the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database (CBLD), we explore artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) approaches to analyzing patterns in central bank legislation. Our findings highlight that: (i) a simple Naïve Bayes algorithm can link CBLD search categories with a significant and increasing level of accuracy to specific articles and phrases in articles in laws (i.e., predict search classification); (ii) specific patterns or themes emerge across central bank legislation (most notably, on central bank governance, central bank policy and operations, and central bank stakeholders and transparency); and (iii) other AI/ML approaches yield interesting results, meriting further research.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents the technical assistance report on investment funds and interconnectedness risks in Albania. The fund sector has been expanding and remains highly concentrated. Interconnectedness between funds and the rest of the financial system is limited. On the liability side, retail investors mainly hold fund shares, and institutional investors play a minor role. On the asset side, funds do not have significant direct exposures to securities issued by financial entities. Exposures to the sovereign market are the main risk transmission channel between funds and the rest of the financial system, given the lack of liquidity of domestic sovereign bonds. The review recommends that Albanian Financial Services Authority (AFSA) should enhance its risk monitoring of the fund sector and its interlinkages with the rest of the financial system. The review recommends that AFSA consider expanding the range of Liquidity Management Tools available to funds. The current regulatory framework only foresees suspension of redemptions, while other tools could be used to mitigate the risk of destabilizing redemptions.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

Capacity development (CD) is a key function of the IMF, aiming to assist its member countries develop their institutional and human capacity to design and implement sound macroeconomic and financial policies. CD has been provided to all IMF member countries at some point, although it is directed mainly toward low- and middle-income countries. CD represents about one-third of the IMF’s administrative budget, having expanded substantially in the past decade. This evaluation assesses how effective the IMF has been in meeting the CD needs and expectations of recipient countries, and the Fund’s institutional objectives for CD, during 2012-20. It also provides an initial review of how IMF CD adapted to the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. The evaluation finds that IMF CD was relevant, valued, and broadly effective. Recipients, donors, and the wider membership saw IMF CD as being of the highest technical quality in the Fund’s core areas of expertise and generally perceived that it had become better tailored to recipient needs and circumstances. Overall, Fund CD has supported member countries in building the institutional capacity, in a very wide range of country circumstances. The IMF has also put substantial effort into integrating CD with surveillance and programs, which has in general enhanced its overall engagement with member countries. While recognizing these achievements, the evaluation also identifies a number of important shortcomings and challenges. The evaluation includes recommendations to enhance the strategic framework for, and prioritization of, CD; information available to Executive Directors and opportunities to exercise their oversight role; the integration of CD with surveillance and programs, particularly in the context of programs; CD ownership and delivery; the monitoring and evaluation framework; the sustainability of the CD funding model; and HR policies and incentives to maintain and develop the expertise in the Fund’s core and newly emerging CD topics.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Albania continues to be severely affected by the aftermath of the November 2019 earthquake and the COVID-19 pandemic. The authorities responded promptly to the shocks, and macroeconomic and financial stability have so far been maintained. The economy is expected to contract sharply in 2020, followed by a gradual recovery in 2021-22. The outlook is subject to major uncertainty and rising downside risks as a second wave is gripping many countries in Europe. Albania’s capacity to repay the Fund is adequate, but risks have risen in light of the shocks. Aside from a more severe pandemic, key risks stem from elevated public deficits and debt, weaknesses in public finances, and a relatively high level of non-performing loans (NPLs) and euroization.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Abstract

The 2019 Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide (2019 Guide) includes new indicators to expand the coverage of the financial sector, including other financial intermediaries, money market funds, insurance corporations, pension funds, nonfinancial corporations, and households. In all, the 2019 Guide recommends the compilation of 50 FSIs—13 of them new. Additions such as new capital, liquidity and asset quality metrics, and concentration and distribution measures will serve to enhance the forward-looking aspect of FSIs and contribute to increase policy focus on stability of the financial system.

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance (TA) report on Bosnia and Herzegovina highlights that the negative spread in a context of structural lower returns on foreign exchange reserves and sizable capital inflows has led to a gradual and steady erosion of the currency board coverage ratio. The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) requested Technical Assistance to review its reserve requirement framework. The mission recommends aligning the remuneration of reserve requirements on foreign exchange liabilities to the CBBH’s opportunity cost. The mission also recommends prescribing the fulfilment in foreign currency of the reserve requirements for foreign currency liabilities. It also suggested altering the remuneration scheme of domestic reserve requirements. In order to be neutral from an intermediation perspective, the reserve requirement remuneration should be aligned to the market-neutral uncovered interest rate parity rate, whereas the remuneration of excess reserves may take place significantly below the market-neutral rate but at or above the foreign currency remuneration rate. The CBBH may benefit from a constructive dialogue with the Area Department or TA to set the new rates of remuneration of domestic reserve requirement and excess reserves.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Since 2014, the CBBH has been exposed to a negative spread on the reinvestment of the reserve requirements. Until 2014, the CBBH remunerated reserve requirements on the basis of the returns achieved on their reinvestment in the euro area money market. In 2014, when the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the deposit facility rate below zero, the CBBH decided not to follow the ECB in the remuneration of reserve requirements and to floor such remuneration to zero. Subsequently, in 2016, the CBBH decided to remunerate excess reserves at 50 percent of the ECB deposit facility rate and to continue remunerating reserve requirements at 0 percent. This exposes the CBBH to a negative spread of about 0.25 percent and 0.45 percent between the reinvestment yield and the remuneration of excess reserves and reserve requirements, respectively.