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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Saint Lucia as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The mission focused on addressing data compilation issues on trade in goods—especially on the import and re-export of fuel—and travel credits and assessed the revised 2022 balance of payments that was disseminated in December 2023.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Growth decelerated marginally in 2017, as the continued decline in CBI inflows slowed growth in construction. Consumer inflation was low, partly due to a small contraction in food prices. The overall fiscal balance remained in surplus but has deteriorated markedly since its 2013- peak, and the debt-to-GDP ratio increased marginally from the previous year. The current account deficit remains high and only marginally declined in 2017, as the decline in CBI receipts was more than offset by growing tourism receipts and a significant decrease in imports. Foreign reserves at the ECCB remained at comfortable levels, well above the various reserve-adequacy metrics. The banking sector has reported capital and liquidity ratios that are well above the regulatory minimum but has elevated NPLs and risks, including delays in completing the debt-land swap arrangement and loss of Corresponding Banking Relationships (CBRs).
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents IMF’s 2019 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). ECCU’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated from 3/4 percent in 2017 to 3 3/4 percent in 2018, reflecting buoyancy in the tourism sector, sizable Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) inflows, and a recovery from the 2017 hurricanes in Anguilla and Dominica, which were supported by large public investments in reconstruction. Fiscal deficits increased in 2018–2019, but they have remained moderate. Efforts are needed to streamline, and re-balance tax incentives based on clear principles consistent with international best practices. External imbalances are sizable and significant financial sector vulnerabilities affect both banks and non-banks. Growth is projected to gradually moderate toward its long-term average of 2 1/4 percent as the cyclical momentum normalizes and CBI inflows ease. These trends would also contribute to wider fiscal deficits, ending the downward drift in public debt dynamics. The outlook is clouded by downside risks, including a possible intensification of natural disasters and financial sector weaknesses.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the need and importance of fiscal integration for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). The continued success of the currency union can be solidified by greater fiscal policy integration. Against the growing intensity of external shocks, country-level fiscal policies remain as the most important policy lever. Regional fiscal policy coordination could usefully supplement national policies in dealing with adverse shocks. Such coordination can potentially create fiscal and policy space along several dimensions. Internationally, fiscal integration takes many forms, depending on the interconnectedness of member economies and their willingness to give up fiscal autonomy. The analysis shows there is scope for tangibly improving tax incentives and rebalancing them toward those that are more effective, while using higher revenues to attract investment also through better infrastructure. Regional coordination could significantly support and accelerate those processes.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic performance of St. Kitts and Nevis moderated in 2016. Growth moderated, reflecting the deceleration in tourism-linked sectors and contraction in manufacturing output, while still exceeding the average growth in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union region. Consumer inflation was negative, reflecting the favorable tax environment and low international fuel prices, but end-year inflation turned positive as these effects started to subside. Growth is expected to average at about 3 percent in the medium term. Inflation is projected to rise with the expected rise in fuel prices, remaining about 2 percent in the medium term.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses key points of 2017 Discussions on Common Policies of Member Countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). Favorable external conditions continue to support economic recovery in the ECCU, but flat tourism receipts and falling revenues from citizenship programs have weakened growth. The fiscal position has deteriorated slightly, and public debt remains high. Despite progress on financial sector reform, bank lending continues to decline while indigenous banks’ profitability is adversely impacted by increasing costs to secure correspondent banking relationships. The short-term outlook is favorable and risks are broadly balanced, but strong structural policies are needed to address impediments to medium-term growth.
Ms. Kimberly Beaton
,
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
, and
Shernnel Thompson
This paper assesses the determinants of NPLs in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and whether a deterioration in asset quality may result in negative feedback effects from the banking system to economic activity. The results suggest that the deterioration in asset quality can be attributed to both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors. Banks with stronger profitability and lower exposure to the construction sector and household loans tend to have lower NPLs. Further, some evidence indicates that foreign owned banks systematically have lower NPLs than domestic banks, pointing to the presence of important differences across bank practices with an impact on asset quality. Finally, the results emphasize the strength of macrofinancial feedback loops in the ECCU.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This IMF Staff Report for the 2016 Discussion on Common Policies of Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) Member Countries highlights that the regional recovery in ECCU is gaining ground, supported by continued low oil prices, strong tourism arrivals, and robust citizenship-by-investment receipts. Risks to the near-term outlook are balanced, but growth in the ECCU continues to be hindered by weak competitiveness, banking sector fragilities, susceptibility to natural disasters, and large public debt. The Executive Directors have encouraged the authorities to press ahead with sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms to decisively address these issues and strengthen the conditions for robust long term growth.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that economy of St. Kitts and Nevis continued its strong growth at about 5 percent, recording the strongest growth in the region during 2013–15. Strong growth has been underpinned by construction and tourism sector activity and their favorable spillovers on the rest of the economy, supported by surging inflows from its Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) program. Large CBI inflows continued in 2015, albeit at a slower pace. The medium-term outlook is positive, but remains dependent on developments in CBI inflows. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.5 percent in 2016 and 3 percent, on average, over the medium term.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
KEY ISSUES Context. The new government that came to power in June 2014 inherited serious fiscal and external payments problems, including arrears to the Fund and other creditors, and unresolved banking sector problems. Moreover, public debt remains at an unsustainable level of close to 100 percent of GDP, while economic activity has been weak with output still well below the level reached at the time of the 2008/09 global financial crisis. Main policy recommendations • Implement fiscal measures equivalent to 2.8 percent of GDP in 2015 to tackle cash flow problems and achieve an underlying primary surplus of 3.0 percent of GDP by 2016 to address debt sustainability challenges. Underpin measures with structural fiscal reforms. • Use Citizenship by Investment Program revenues to pay down arrears and debt and fund bank resolution. The program should be managed in line with the high standards of governance and transparency set out in the law. • Move expeditiously as planned with the resolution of ABI Bank and support initiatives underway to strengthen the regional bank resolution framework, in particular, the passage of needed legislative reforms. • Improve competitiveness by moderating labor costs; increasing energy efficiency, including by better performance of the state-owned utility company; and improving the investment climate. Authorities’ views. The authorities broadly agreed with staff’s assessment of the economic situation and risks, and its recommendations to reduce fiscal vulnerabilities and strengthen the banking system. They were more optimistic about growth prospects for 2015 based on expectations for substantial FDI. They are opposed to increases in taxes and plan to focus fiscal efforts on cutting recurrent spending. On bank resolution, they wish to work closely with the Fund and World Bank to speedily address outstanding problems. They paid the arrears to the Fund and committed to timely servicing of Fund obligations. Data provision. Data provision is adequate for surveillance and post-program monitoring although significant areas for improvement remain, in particular on labor market statistics, measurement of arrears, financial information on state-owned enterprises, and national accounts by expenditure components.