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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 804 items for :

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Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Bhutan: Development of an Interest Rate Corridor Framework
Oleg Churiy
and
Bernard J Laurens
At the request of the Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan (RMA), an IMF South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center (SARTTAC) visited Thimphu during August 20-29, 2024. The mission’s objectives were to assist the authorities in setting up interest rate corridor (IRC) and operationalizing the related instruments, operations, liquidity forecasting, and collateral frameworks.
Keywords:
Monetary policy; International organization; IMF South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center; capacity development recipient; staff capacity; high-level summary; money market development; Interest rate corridor; Open market operations; Liquidity forecasting; Liquidity management
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Bhutan: Technical Assistance Report-Development of an Interest Rate Corridor Framework
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
and
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
In August 2024, at the request of the Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan (RMA), the IMF South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center (SARTTAC) conducted a Technical Assistance (TA) mission in Thimphu. The mission aimed to assist the RMA in establishing an interest rate corridor (IRC) and operationalizing related instruments, liquidity forecasting, and collateral frameworks. The mission identified that the RMA lacks necessary monetary policy instruments to effectively address changing systemic liquidity conditions and financial stability challenges. It emphasized the need to move away from reliance on administrative controls, as the absence of appropriate price incentives reinforces the preference for foreign exchange among Bhutanese residents, increasing pressures on the peg. To tackle these issues, the mission proposed a phased approach to introduce the IRC. Initially, relevant external and internal documents should be finalized, followed by mock operations. The first phase involves introducing a one-week main Open Market Operation (OMO), conducted weekly at the policy rate with full allotment. Automatic access to the IRC's standing facilities should be ensured. Later, fixed-quantity, variable-rate OMOs should be utilized, relying on liquidity forecasting to calibrate operations. Additionally, the mission recommended reinstating sweeping arrangements for government accounts and enhancing coordination with the Treasury to improve liquidity forecasting. These measures aim to strengthen the RMA's operational framework and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Keywords:
Monetary policy; International organization; Bhutan.; RMA money market contact group; IMF South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center; IMF's Monetary; expert of the IMF Monetary; interest rate corridor framework; Liquidity management; Interest rate corridor; Liquidity; Commercial banks; Central bank policy rate
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Azerbaijan: Technical Assistance Report-Modernizing Central Bank Communication
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This report presents an analysis of the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan's (CBA) communication framework and offers recommendations for enhancement. The technical assistance mission, led by the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department, aimed to modernize the CBA's communication strategies to align with international best practices. The findings indicate that while the CBA has made significant progress in external communications, there are areas for improvement, particularly in formalizing communication processes and enhancing message clarity. Recommendations include strengthening the role of the Communications Division, adopting a proactive communication policy, and improving the monetary policy communication cycle. These changes are expected to elevate the CBA's communication to a policy tool that supports its objectives of price and financial stability.
Keywords:
Central Bank; Communication; Monetary Policy; Transparency; Inflation Targeting; Stakeholders; Capacity Building; Policy Framework; Institutional Strategy; Communication Division; Azerbaijan.; CBA monetary policy press release; C. communications management; monetary policy department; B. Communication cycle; communication framework; CBA flagship policy publication; Monetary policy communication; Social networks; Financial sector stability; Central bank policy rate; Monetary policy frameworks; Global
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Measure the Monetary Stance
Olamide Harrison
and
Vina Nguyen
This note provides a conceptual framework to organize discussions of the appropriateness of the monetary policy stance and presents tools that country teams can employ to measure, report, and evaluate the stance of monetary policy. The note focuses exclusively on aggregate demand considerations—on whether the stance is tight or loose—without considering whether such a stance is appropriate for achieving policy objectives. The latter requires considering aggregate supply and Phillips Curve trade-offs. The note does not cover other macroeconomic policies, such as macroprudential or fiscal measures, which could also have a considerable impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Keywords:
Monetary policy stance; natural interest rate; neutral interest rate; yield curve; data IMF Library; ante real interest rates; publication order; inflation expectation; Real interest rates; Central bank policy rate; Inflation; Monetary stance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy and Inflation Scares
Christopher J. Erceg
,
Jesper Lindé
, and
Mathias Trabandt
A salient feature of the post-COVID inflation surge is that economic activity has remained resilient despite unfavorable supply-side developments. We develop a macroeconomic model with nonlinear price and wage Phillips curves, endogenous intrinsic indexation and an unobserved components representation of a cost-push shock that is consistent with these observations. In our model, a persistent large adverse supply shock can lead to a persistent inflation surge while output expands if the central bank follows an inflation forecast-based policy rule and thus abstains from hiking policy rates for some time as it (erroneously) expects inflationary pressures to dissipate quickly. A standard linearized formulation of our model cannot account for these observations under identical assumptions. Our nonlinear framework implies that the standard prescription of "looking through" supply shocks is a good policy for small shocks when inflation is near the central bank's target, but that such a policy may be quite risky when economic activity is strong and large shocks drive inflation well above target. Moreover, our model implies that the economic costs of "going the last mile" – i.e. a tight stance aimed at returning inflation quickly to target – can be substantial.
Keywords:
Inflation Dynamics; New Keynesian Model; Inflation Risk; Monetary Policy; Linearized Model; Nonlinear Model; State-Dependent Pricing; cost-push shock; policy rule; COVID inflation surge; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Supply shocks; Central bank policy rate; Labor markets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
South Africa: Central Bank Transparency Code Review
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper focuses on South Africa’s Central Bank Transparency Code Review. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB’s) strategic commitment to open and transparent communications should be anchored in a more robust institutional communication framework. Communications about the SARB’s role in the reform of the Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account settlement framework and the implications for its financial autonomy should be further clarified. The SARB’s monetary policy framework is comprehensive, transparent and understandable, but would benefit from greater transparency about setting the inflation target, policy deliberations, and alternative risk scenarios. The SARB has significantly increased the transparency and accountability of its monetary policy framework by adopting appropriate communications vehicles to reach different audiences and by publishing model-based forecasts. The SARB would also benefit from enhancing the transparency of well-established governance arrangements and policies in some areas. It is recommended to strengthen the transparency of certain aspects of the SARB’s legal structure and autonomy, by providing a general explanation of the SARB’s legal protections and its institutional and functional autonomy.
Keywords:
contingency reserve account; central bank Transparency Code; IMF mission; review mission; production assistance; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Monetary policy frameworks; International reserves; Inflation targeting; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Ghana: Extensions and Applications
Philip Abradu-Otoo
,
Joseph K. Acquah
,
James Attuquaye
,
Simon Harvey
,
Francis Loloh
,
Shalva Mkhatrishvili
,
Valeriu Nalban
,
Daniel Ngoh
,
Victor Osei
, and
Michael Quansah
The paper documents the latest extensions of the Bank of Ghana’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), used regularly to produce policy analysis and forecasts in support of the Bank’s policy processes. The decomposition of GDP allows to separate the agriculture and oil sectors, driven by exogenous and international developments, from non-agriculture non-oil activities, which are more relevant from the central bank’s perspective of assessing the business cycle position. Inter-sectoral price spillovers and their role in the formation of inflation expectations are explicitly accounted, with important policy implications. Specific model applications – including impulse response functions and simulations of shocks that affect agricultural production, e.g., those caused by climate disruptions; and counterfactual simulations to evaluate recent policy choices – highlight the usefulness of the extended QPM in providing a more detailed account of the economic developments, enhance forecast coverage, and broaden its underlying narrative, thus strengthening the BOG’s forward-looking policy framework.
Keywords:
Ghana; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Quarterly Projection Model; Monetary Policy; Transmission Mechanism; A. impulse response; impulse response function; reaction function; policy analysis; Bank of Ghana's Quarterly Projection Model; price spillover; Inflation; Output gap; Inflation targeting; Real interest rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
ECB Spillovers to Emerging Europe: The Past and Current Experience
Philipp Engler
,
Gianluigi Ferrucci
,
Pawel Zabczyk
, and
Tianxiao Zheng
We provide new evidence on the spillover effects of ECB monetary policy shocks to emerging European economies, using a combination of empirical methods and model-based simulations and focusing on spillovers from interest rate and balance sheet policies implemented by the ECB. We consider an event study set around the ECB policy announcement in June 2022 and also use local projections to estimate regional spillovers in a panel of 16 Emerging European countries spanning 1999 to 2022. Identifying ECB monetary policy shocks as the unexplained component of changes in the three-month Euribor futures rate, we find that ECB monetary policy tightening induces more than one-for-one changes in government bond yields in Emerging Europe, as well as sizable increases in sovereign spreads, domestic currency depreciations, and significantly lower output. Model simulations using a two-country DSGE calibrated to the euro area and its Eastern European neighbors reveal that a conventional tightening, achieved through interest rate increases, provides a more favorable inflation-output trade-off compared to balance sheet tightenings. The extent of spillovers from quantitative tightening depends on the speed of balance sheet reduction, and it is larger under a fixed exchange rate regime.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Quantitative Easing; International Spillovers; ECB monetary policy tightening; ECB policy announcement; ECB spillover; ECB monetary policy shock; monetary policy spillover; ECB asset purchase portfolio; Spillovers; Exchange rate arrangements; Monetary tightening; Central bank policy rate; Exchange rates; Europe; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal R-Star: Fiscal-Monetary Tensions and Implications for Policy
Marijn A. Bolhuis
,
Jakree Koosakul
, and
Neil Shenai
Since the Global Financial Crisis, fiscal policy in advanced economies has become more “active” – that is, increasingly unresponsive to rising debt levels. This paper explores tensions between active fiscal and monetary policies by introducing the concept of “fiscal r-star,” which is the real interest rate required to stabilize debt levels when the primary balance is set exogenously, output is growing at potential, and inflation is at target. It is proposed that the difference between monetary r-star and fiscal r-star—referred to as the “fiscal monetary gap”—is a proxy for fiscal-monetary policy tensions. An analysis of over 140 years of data from 16 advanced economies shows that larger fiscal-monetary gaps are associated with rising debt levels, higher inflation, financial repression, lower real returns on bonds and cash, with elevated risks of future debt, inflation, currency, housing, and systemic crises. Current estimates indicate that fiscal-monetary tensions are at historic highs. Given the tepid growth outlook, growth-enhancing reforms and fiscal consolidation, among other policy adjustments, may be needed to attenuate fiscal-monetary tensions over time.
Keywords:
Fiscal r-star; fiscal-monetary gap; fiscal-monetary interactions; fiscal dominance; inflation; fiscal consolidation; monetary policy; fiscal policy; policy space; financial repression; debt liquidation; fiscal-monetary policy tension; debt level; fiscal policy to debt; IMF working paper 24/174; Fiscal stance; Real interest rates; Inflation targeting; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Deciphering Delphic Guidance: The Bank of England and Brexit
Jagjit Chadha
,
Corrado Macchiarelli
,
Satyam Goel
,
Arno Hantzsche
, and
Sathya Mellina
In response to the 2016 referendum on EU Membership and the ensuing uncertainty as to the eventual consequences of Brexit, the Bank of England (BoE) adopted various methods of influencing market rates, including conventional, unconventional monetary policy measures and communications on forward guidance. To investigate the effectiveness of BoE’s communication, we first decompose long-dated yields into a risk neutral and term premium component. Text-based analysis of Monetary Policy Committee minutes is then used to measure the stance of policy, attitudes to QE and Brexit. We show that the Bank’s communication strategy acted to complement the stance of monetary policy, which had responded by lowering Bank rate and expanding QE, and acted to lower the term premium that might otherwise have risen in response to Brexit uncertainty.
Keywords:
UK referendum; Brexit; risk premium; monetary policy; central bank communication; text mining; BoE action; BoE strategy; Bank of England MPC communication; BoE's monetary policy; Brexit referendum; Yield curve; Unconventional monetary policies; Central bank policy rate; Sovereign bonds; Global