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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover Africa-China Linkages
Africa-China Linkages
Building Deeper and Broader Connections
Abebe Aemro Selassie
,
Andrea Richter Hume
, and
Alfred Schipke

Abstract

Africa has made remarkable strides across many development metrics, significantly improving life expectancy, literacy, health, and education. With its population set to double to around 2 billion by 2050, Africa’s economic trajectory will increasingly shape global dynamics. Central to this growth story are Africa’s economic and financial linkages with China, reflected in robust trade, foreign direct investment, and financing flows. These connections are bolstered by institutional frameworks like the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, which aim to strengthen and expand this partnership.  This book delves into the evolving Africa-China economic relationship, examining its many facets and the potential impact of China’s current trends on Africa’s future. It offers a multidimensional analysis, including the role of policy frameworks, capacity building, and fintech in promoting sustainable development. One chapter provides a comprehensive overview of official financing, detailing the Chinese government agencies driving the China-Africa economic partnership. Another explores the rapid evolution of fintech in both regions, highlighting its role in enhancing financial inclusion, spurring growth, and reducing income inequality. This offers valuable insights for other emerging markets and developing countries. The book also dedicates a chapter to China’s economic ties with the Maghreb countries, while discussions on global experiences in strengthening policy frameworks and capacity building offer crucial lessons for bolstering Africa’s institutional structures.   With China poised to contribute a quarter of global economic growth over the next five years, it will remain a key player in shaping Africa’s economic future. However, the slowing of China’s economy, and its ongoing structural changes, will present both challenges and opportunities for African nations. By focusing on this important and evolving driver of growth in Africa, this book complements the IMF’s ongoing policy dialogue and financial support to African countries. The IMF’s deep experience in analysing spillovers is particularly relevant for the book’s assessment of the channels through which developments in China affect Africa.

Keywords:
Africa; China; Economic Development; Growth; Debt; Financing; Investment; Institutions; Capacity Development; Frameworks
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Bhutan: Development of an Interest Rate Corridor Framework
Oleg Churiy
and
Bernard J Laurens
At the request of the Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan (RMA), an IMF South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center (SARTTAC) visited Thimphu during August 20-29, 2024. The mission’s objectives were to assist the authorities in setting up interest rate corridor (IRC) and operationalizing the related instruments, operations, liquidity forecasting, and collateral frameworks.
Keywords:
Monetary policy; International organization; IMF South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center; capacity development recipient; staff capacity; high-level summary; money market development; Interest rate corridor; Open market operations; Liquidity forecasting; Liquidity management
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Belize: Technical Assistance Report-Developing the Supervision of E-Money Issuers
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
IMF conducted a mission at the request of the Central Bank of Belize provided technical assistance focusing on developing a framework for the supervision of electronic money issuers in Belize. The mission reviewed existing approaches to supervising firms conducting regulated financial activities, as well as the regulatory framework and licensing practices for e-money issuers only to the extent that they influence and impact effective supervision. The mission also met with other key stakeholders from the public and private sector setting out nine key recommendations covering risk-based supervision, data collection, reconciliations, transparency, fund safeguarding, permitted investments, agents, inspection reports, and domestic collaboration.
Keywords:
Electronic money; E-money; Supervision; Belize; Central Bank; fintech; Payments.; IMF's Monetary; instrumentalities of the CD recipient; World Bank staff; e-money issuer; terms and conditions; risk assessment; Central bank bills; National payment systems; Credit bureaus; Payment systems
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bolivia's growth momentum moderated in 2023, to 2.5 percent, from declining natural gas production, less public investment, and financial market turmoil. Growth is anticipated to decelerate to 1.6 percent in 2024, holding at around 2.2-2.3 percent in the medium term under the continuation of the current policies. Inflation is forecast to reach 4.5 percent in 2024, stabilizing around 4 percent thereafter. The outlook is however predicated on significantly improved access to external financing, without which the risk of disorderly fiscal and/or exchange rate adjustment is elevated. Near-term growth is expected to remain constrained by elevated uncertainty and unfavorable financial conditions. Structural reforms to incentivize foreign investment, improve capital allocation, eliminate credit quotas and interest rate ceilings, expand and diversify the export base, strengthen fiscal and central bank governance, and revamp the regulatory framework will be crucial to eventually guide the economy to a higher medium-term growth path.
Keywords:
market exchange rate volatility; authorities' action; U.S. dollar; Bolivian authorities; government's measure; Public sector; International reserves; Inflation; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Haiti: Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper explores Haiti’s the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). This new 12-month SMP is expected to contribute to strengthen macroeconomic stability to support well-being of people and to enhance economic resilience and governance. It will anchor the government’s macroeconomic priorities for the year ahead. IMF management also welcomes the authorities’ commitment to publish the forthcoming Governance Diagnostic Report. Haiti faces a multidimensional crisis, a political transition, with a challenging outlook. The top priority is to continue to restore security. This is a prerequisite for macroeconomic stability and for allowing growth to materialize. Despite domestic and global difficulties, the authorities are firmly committed to negotiating a new SMP and have managed to contain somewhat the impact of the various shocks, thereby averting even worse macroeconomic outcomes. Advancing governance reforms is paramount to help Haiti exit from fragility, ensure inclusive growth and build trust with the private sector and development partners. A government-led strategy to continue to strengthen the economy’s resilience to multiple shocks requires the financial support of the international community.
Keywords:
governance Diagnostic Report; SMP lapse; government priority; transparency policy; management of the International Monetary Fund; PROGRAM monitoring; SMP commitment; Credit; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: 2024 Article IV Consultation and the Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Suriname’s 2024 Article IV Consultation and the Eight Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Suriname is implementing an ambitious economic reform agenda to restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, while laying the foundations for strong and more inclusive growth. The authorities’ steadfast commitment to maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies and implementing difficult but necessary reforms are yielding positive results: the economy is growing, inflation is declining, donor engagement is deepening, and investor confidence is returning. The Final Investment Decision announcement in the new offshore field has boosted the medium-term outlook in the country. Building on the progress made thus far, the authorities should entrench fiscal discipline, particularly in the run up to the elections while protecting the vulnerable. In view of the upcoming oil wealth, strengthening the fiscal framework, including through the introduction of new fiscal rules, and addressing governance weaknesses is critical.
Keywords:
Surinamese authorities; tax authorities; debt sustainability outlook; recapitalization plan; B. data standard; governance reform agenda; policy priority; management framework; government procurement; Monetary base; International reserves; Exchange rates; Arrears; Caribbean
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Financial Buffers in a Euroized Economy: Republic of Kosovo
Javier Kapsoli
and
Ezgi O. Ozturk
This paper analyzes reserve adequacy measurement in Kosovo, where euro serves as the legal tender. The study adapts the IMF's Assessing Reserve Adequacy framework to Kosovo's unique monetary context, focusing on precautionary motives for holding reserves. The analysis reveals limited readily available reserves at the Central Bank of Kosovo and recommends additional government deposits of 1.75-5.75 percent of GDP. Given the significant opportunity costs of maintaining such deposits, the paper suggests alternative solutions, including exploring a private lender of last resort model and maintaining ECB repo lines.
Keywords:
Reserve adequacy; euroization; central bank reserves; liquidity buffers; foreign exchange reserves; bank deposits; monetary policy; Kosovo; Euroized economy; ECB repo line; lender of last resort model; government deposit; Currencies; Lender of last resort; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper analyzes Argentina’s Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. The 2022 EFF came about in extremely difficult circumstances. Argentina was unable to regain external viability under the 2018 Stand-By Arrangement and faced large and concentrated repurchase obligations to the IMF. The combination of a gradualist reform strategy, large adverse shocks, and progressively weaker implementation resulted in outcomes substantially worse than in the baseline by end-2023. The program got off to a difficult start, with the surge in global commodity prices due to Russia’s war in Ukraine feeding inflation expectations and creating additional fiscal spending needs that were met through direct and indirect monetization, further fueling inflation. A major course correction subsequently undertaken by the Milei government—notably a sharp fiscal consolidation, an upfront devaluation, and an end to monetary financing of the budget helped Argentina avert a full-blown crisis and make important strides toward macroeconomic stabilization. Overall, the 2022 EFF did not achieve its original macroeconomic objectives, but it was successful in easing the burden of Argentina’s financial obligations to the IMF by rescheduling repayments over 2026–2034, and may have helped Argentina avoid even worse outcomes in 2022–2023.
Keywords:
program ownership; IMF view; disinflation process; Policy strategy; lending decision; risk tolerance; Fiscal consolidation; International reserves; Inflation; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Costa Rica: Post Financing Assessment-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Costa Rica’s Post Financing Assessment. Growth has exceeded 4 percent so far in 2024 and is expected to moderate to 3 1/2 percent in 2025. Costa Rica successfully completed its Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability arrangements in June. Growth remains robust, inflation continues to converge to the central bank’s target from below, and international reserves are ample. Discussions centered on further enhancing economic and climate resilience, capitalizing on Costa Rica’s economic fundamentals and institutions, and sustaining the policy track record that has been demonstrated over the past several years. Fiscal consolidation should be anchored on reducing spending in nonpriority areas and bolstering revenues while allowing for some increase in social spending. The fiscal stance should be centered on adhering to the fiscal rule and medium-term fiscal framework. The recent intervention and resolution of two small, nonbank financial institutions underscores the importance of the authorities’ plans to strengthen the frameworks for bank resolution and deposit insurance. Progress in a range of supply side areas will be important to raise potential growth and mitigate the effects of climate change.
Keywords:
BCCR President Madrigal López; Policy discussion; debt management reform; IMF's transparency policy; financing cost; Credit; International reserves; Global; Central America
Cover Policy Papers
Central Bank Stress Testing—Guidance Note
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The expansion of central bank balance sheets has become a critical topic in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Central banks have taken unprecedented measures to ensure price stability and financial stability, particularly when traditional policy tools were insufficient. However, this expansion has led to significant balance sheet risks, resulting in notable losses as central banks have adjusted their policies in response to rising inflation. This guidance note explores these risks and introduces a modeling framework to assess them. While essential for achieving stability, the expansion of central bank balance sheets introduces significant risks that require careful management. The proposed modeling framework is a valuable tool for assessing these risks and guiding capital policy. Exploring the relationship between balance sheet size and economic outcomes could yield beneficial insights for future central bank strategies.
Keywords:
Central bank; balance sheet; stress testing; balance sheet risk; central bank equity; forecasting balance sheet; central bank bank transfer; balance sheet action; central bank profit; Financial statements; Central bank policy rate; Central bank balance sheet; Yield curve; International reserves; Global