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Marianne Bechara
,
Wouter Bossu
,
Amira Rasekh
,
Chia Yi Tan
, and
Akihiro Yoshinaga
In designing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), it is imperative that central banks carefully consider its legal foundations. As with any form of money, CBDCs require a solid basis under public and private law to provide it with the necessary legal certainty and political support that will underpin its wide circulation. This Fintech Note examines the private law aspects of token-based CBDC primarily intended for retail use. It follows a previous IMF working paper that examines the legal foundations of CBDC under central bank law and its treatment under monetary law—the main public law aspects of CBDC.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This report provides an overview of the technical assistance provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the Banco de la República to support the authorities in reviewing the regulatory framework and formulating development strategies for the foreign exchange market.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The Samoan economy has bounced back strongly over the last two years, supported by a recovery in tourism. Fiscal surpluses, in part due to high grant flows, have helped the country emerge from the pandemic with enhanced buffers. At the same time, several longstanding and emerging factors—including lack of economies of scale, climate vulnerabilities, ML/TF concerns, delays in the implementation of public investment due to capacity constraints, and rising outward migration—pose challenges to the economic outlook in the medium term.
Carolina Lopez-Quiles
and
Adil Mohommad
We examine spillovers from ECB’s TLTROs on European countries outside the euro area. Using individual banks’ balance sheet data, we find that TLTROs lowered funding and lending rates for foreign-owned subsidiaries, especially in emerging market economies. We also find an increase in profitability among foreign subsidiaries and no effects on solvency risk. The effects are sizable--every €1 billion in exposure to TLTROs via parent banks is associated with 0.2 bps reduction in deposit rates and 0.4 bps reduction in lending rates of foreign subsidiaries. This underscores the need to factor euro area monetary policies into policy settings outside the euro area.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Recent developments. Haiti is facing exceptionally challenging circumstances. The deteriorating security environment, which reached crisis proportions in the first few months of 2024, has continued to worsen, disrupting supply chains (particularly energy and basic services) and feeding inflationary pressures. In November 2024, Haiti's transitional Presidential Council designated Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé to form a new government with a time-bound mandate through next elections. The government has a narrow but important window of opportunity to implement reforms that could help restore the country’s potential over the medium term.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The authorities’ commitment to a range of policy reforms continues to strengthen macroeconomic stability. The economy is growing, inflation is receding, donor support is increasing, the public debt is declining, and international bond spreads are at historic lows. The Final Investment Decision (FID) to develop a large offshore oil field was announced on October 1. Moody’s has upgraded Suriname’s sovereign debt rating and changed the outlook to positive.
Bas B. Bakker
The economic literature has long attributed non-zero expected excess returns in currency markets to time-varying risk premiums demanded by risk-averse investors. This paper, building on Bacchetta and van Wincoop's (2021) portfolio balance framework, shows that such returns can also arise when investors are risk-neutral but face portfolio adjustment costs. Models with adjustment costs but no risk aversion predict a negative correlation between exchange rate levels and expected excess returns, while models with risk aversion but no adjustment costs predict a positive one. Using data from nine inflation targeting economies with floating exchange rates (2000–2024), we find strong empirical support for the adjustment costs framework. The negative correlation persists even during periods of low market stress, further evidence that portfolio adjustment costs, not risk premium shocks, drive the link between exchange rates and excess returns. Our model predicts that one-year expected excess returns should have predictive power for multi-year returns, with longer-term expected returns as increasing multiples of short-term expectations, and the predictive power strengthening with the horizon. We confirm these findings empirically. We also examine scenarios combining risk aversion and adjustment costs, showing that sufficiently high adjustment costs are essential to generate the observed negative relationship.These findings provide a simpler, testable alternative to literature relying on assumptions about unobservable factors like time-varying risk premiums, intermediary constraints, or noise trader activity.
Javier Kapsoli
and
Ezgi O. Ozturk
This paper analyzes reserve adequacy measurement in Kosovo, where euro serves as the legal tender. The study adapts the IMF's Assessing Reserve Adequacy framework to Kosovo's unique monetary context, focusing on precautionary motives for holding reserves. The analysis reveals limited readily available reserves at the Central Bank of Kosovo and recommends additional government deposits of 1.75-5.75 percent of GDP. Given the significant opportunity costs of maintaining such deposits, the paper suggests alternative solutions, including exploring a private lender of last resort model and maintaining ECB repo lines.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper provides background for an informal discussion to engage with Executive Directors, held on November 26, 2024, on the Comprehensive Review of GRA Access Limits. The General Resources Account (GRA) access limits are part of the Fund’s risk management framework. They help maintain a balance between the need to: (i) ensure that members have confidence in the availability of Fund financing; and (ii) preserve liquidity and the revolving nature of the Fund’s resources.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Costa Rica’s Post Financing Assessment. Growth has exceeded 4 percent so far in 2024 and is expected to moderate to 3 1/2 percent in 2025. Costa Rica successfully completed its Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability arrangements in June. Growth remains robust, inflation continues to converge to the central bank’s target from below, and international reserves are ample. Discussions centered on further enhancing economic and climate resilience, capitalizing on Costa Rica’s economic fundamentals and institutions, and sustaining the policy track record that has been demonstrated over the past several years. Fiscal consolidation should be anchored on reducing spending in nonpriority areas and bolstering revenues while allowing for some increase in social spending. The fiscal stance should be centered on adhering to the fiscal rule and medium-term fiscal framework. The recent intervention and resolution of two small, nonbank financial institutions underscores the importance of the authorities’ plans to strengthen the frameworks for bank resolution and deposit insurance. Progress in a range of supply side areas will be important to raise potential growth and mitigate the effects of climate change.