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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 1,610 items for :

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Financial Conditions and Their Growth Implications for Qatar
Dorothy Nampewo
This paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Qatar and uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to examine the impact of financial conditions on Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth. The analysis shows that the FCI is an important leading indicator of Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth, highlighting its predictive potential for future economic performance. The GaR framework suggests that overall, the current downside risks to Qatar’s baseline non-hydrocarbon growth projections are relatively mild.
Keywords:
Financial conditions; non-hydrocarbon growth; Qatar; GaR framework; growth projection; Qatar's baseline; copyright page; financial conditions indicator; Financial conditions index; Oil prices; Central bank policy rate; Deposit rates; Post-clearance customs audit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
macro News; macroeconomics news; ECB monetary policy surprise; EU TFP frontier; inflation expectation; Automobile industry; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Asset prices; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Czech Republic is evolving from a heavily manufacturing-based, export-oriented hub to a more mature and diversified economy. Non-auto manufacturing, energy, and construction, once important Czech engines of growth, have run out of steam, hampered by decelerating productivity growth, higher energy costs, and sluggish demand. The auto industry has shown resilience so far, but the required transition to electric vehicles and exposure to foreign competition are set to exert significant pressures in the coming years. Higher value-added sectors, including ICT services, are constrained by lack of skilled labor and limited access to capital, undermining their ability to compete in global markets.
Keywords:
currency of the Czech Republic; FSAP update; FSAP participation; services inflation; managing inflation risk; Inflation; Productivity; Labor markets; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Economic activity has slowed reflecting falling natural gas production, lower public investment execution, financial volatility, and disruptions due to socio-political tensions. Bolivia’s inflation rate remains one of the lowest in the region, sustained by price controls and costly subsidies. The combination of sizable fiscal imbalances, declining natural gas exports, a loss of access to international markets, and the ongoing monetization of the deficit in the context of an exchange rate peg have eroded competitiveness, depleted reserves, and left Bolivia in a precarious position.
Keywords:
market exchange rate volatility; authorities' action; U.S. dollar; Bolivian authorities; government's measure; Public sector; International reserves; Inflation; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Measure the Monetary Stance
Olamide Harrison
and
Vina Nguyen
This note provides a conceptual framework to organize discussions of the appropriateness of the monetary policy stance and presents tools that country teams can employ to measure, report, and evaluate the stance of monetary policy. The note focuses exclusively on aggregate demand considerations—on whether the stance is tight or loose—without considering whether such a stance is appropriate for achieving policy objectives. The latter requires considering aggregate supply and Phillips Curve trade-offs. The note does not cover other macroeconomic policies, such as macroprudential or fiscal measures, which could also have a considerable impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Keywords:
Monetary policy stance; natural interest rate; neutral interest rate; yield curve; data IMF Library; ante real interest rates; publication order; inflation expectation; Real interest rates; Central bank policy rate; Inflation; Monetary stance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Long-Term Debt and Short-Term Rates: Fixed-Rate Mortgages and Monetary Transmission
Alessia De Stefani
and
Rui Mano
We study the two-way relationship between fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) and monetary policy in a panel of up to 35 countries over the last two decades. The dataset includes quarterly information on the composition of mortgage flows and stock by type of rate-fixation and monetary policy shocks cleaned of information effects. Using instrumental-variablel local projections, we find both path- and state-dependency in monetary transmission. Monetary policy shapes mortgage choice, increasing (decreasing) the share of FRMs during easing (tightening) cycles. Over time, this mechanism alters the composition of the outstanding mortgage stock which, in turn, affects the central bank's ability to stabilize the economy ex-post. A greater (lower) prevalence of FRMs weakens (strengthens) monetary policy transmission to key macro-variables.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Mortgage Markets; monetary policy shock; monetary policy transmission; mortgage choice; prevalence of FRMs; ARM rate; Mortgages; Central bank policy rate; Stocks; Housing prices; Private consumption; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
ECB Monetary Policy Passthrough to Bank Interest Rates During Tightening: Republic of Kosovo
Ezgi O. Ozturk
This paper analyzes the transmission of ECB policy rate changes to bank interest rates in Kosovo during the 2022-23 tightening cycle. While both lending and deposit rates increased, the passthrough was more limited compared to the euro area and regional peers. Three key factors explain this limited transmission: Kosovo's stage of financial development, high banking sector liquidity, and significant bank concentration.
Keywords:
Monetary policy transmission; interest rates; banking sector; euroization; financial development; Kosovo; ECB monetary policy Passthrough; ECB policy rate change; ECB policy rate Passthrough; ECB Policy rate pass-through; Central bank policy rate; Deposit rates; Financial sector development; Inflation; Financial inclusion; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On March 25, 2022, the IMF Executive Board approved a 30-month arrangement for Argentina supported by the Extended Fund Facility (2022 EFF). Amounting to US$44 billion (1,001 percent of quota), it was the second largest non-precautionary arrangement in the Fund’s history after the 2018 Stand-by Arrangement for Argentina (2018 SBA). Of the planned 10 reviews, eight were completed. The arrangement is set to expire at end-2024.
Keywords:
program ownership; IMF view; disinflation process; Policy strategy; lending decision; risk tolerance; Fiscal consolidation; International reserves; Inflation; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s economy remains resilient, and performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. The authorities met all end-September quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks. Economic growth in 2024 has been upgraded given better than expected resilience to the energy shocks. However, a slowdown is expected in 2025 due to an increasingly tight labor market, the impact of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and continued uncertainty about the war. The financial sector remains stable, but vigilance is needed given heightened risks. Progress on strengthening bank resolution and risk-based supervision, stress-testing frameworks and contingency planning should be sustained. Sustained reform momentum, progress at domestic revenue mobilization, and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and improve governance.
Keywords:
core inflation basket; Ukrenergo's government; national bank of Ukraine; supervisory board; inflation expectation; Budget planning and preparation; Inflation; International reserves; Debt sustainability; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy and Inflation Scares
Christopher J. Erceg
,
Jesper Lindé
, and
Mathias Trabandt
A salient feature of the post-COVID inflation surge is that economic activity has remained resilient despite unfavorable supply-side developments. We develop a macroeconomic model with nonlinear price and wage Phillips curves, endogenous intrinsic indexation and an unobserved components representation of a cost-push shock that is consistent with these observations. In our model, a persistent large adverse supply shock can lead to a persistent inflation surge while output expands if the central bank follows an inflation forecast-based policy rule and thus abstains from hiking policy rates for some time as it (erroneously) expects inflationary pressures to dissipate quickly. A standard linearized formulation of our model cannot account for these observations under identical assumptions. Our nonlinear framework implies that the standard prescription of "looking through" supply shocks is a good policy for small shocks when inflation is near the central bank's target, but that such a policy may be quite risky when economic activity is strong and large shocks drive inflation well above target. Moreover, our model implies that the economic costs of "going the last mile" – i.e. a tight stance aimed at returning inflation quickly to target – can be substantial.
Keywords:
Inflation Dynamics; New Keynesian Model; Inflation Risk; Monetary Policy; Linearized Model; Nonlinear Model; State-Dependent Pricing; cost-push shock; policy rule; COVID inflation surge; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Supply shocks; Central bank policy rate; Labor markets