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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
After reaching 5.1 percent in 2023, growth is expected to slow to 3.9 percent in 2024, while inflation would decline to 8.2 percent. The banking sector remains resilient amid continued rapid consumer credit growth. A moderate current account deficit is expected this year. The outlook is subject to elevated risks, including from an uncertain external environment. Decisive reforms are necessary to diversify the economy, make growth higher and more inclusive, and address challenges from climate change.
Keywords:
IMF TA; IMF's holding; money-market development; inflation pressure; central bank communications; Policy effectiveness; NBK policy rate; oil revenue; IMF's transparency policy; Fiscal stance; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy and Inflation Scares
Christopher J. Erceg
,
Jesper Lindé
, and
Mathias Trabandt
A salient feature of the post-COVID inflation surge is that economic activity has remained resilient despite unfavorable supply-side developments. We develop a macroeconomic model with nonlinear price and wage Phillips curves, endogenous intrinsic indexation and an unobserved components representation of a cost-push shock that is consistent with these observations. In our model, a persistent large adverse supply shock can lead to a persistent inflation surge while output expands if the central bank follows an inflation forecast-based policy rule and thus abstains from hiking policy rates for some time as it (erroneously) expects inflationary pressures to dissipate quickly. A standard linearized formulation of our model cannot account for these observations under identical assumptions. Our nonlinear framework implies that the standard prescription of "looking through" supply shocks is a good policy for small shocks when inflation is near the central bank's target, but that such a policy may be quite risky when economic activity is strong and large shocks drive inflation well above target. Moreover, our model implies that the economic costs of "going the last mile" – i.e. a tight stance aimed at returning inflation quickly to target – can be substantial.
Keywords:
Inflation Dynamics; New Keynesian Model; Inflation Risk; Monetary Policy; Linearized Model; Nonlinear Model; State-Dependent Pricing; cost-push shock; policy rule; COVID inflation surge; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Supply shocks; Central bank policy rate; Labor markets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of San Marino: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper compares Sammarinese banks with nearby Italian banks with similar business models, highlighting gaps in asset quality, capital adequacy, and cost efficiency. Individual banks can boost profits by reducing the high operating costs and increasing the share of income-generating assets. If within bank consolidation is insufficient to restore competitiveness, system-wide consolidation can be considered to achieve economies of scale. It is key to improve the competitiveness of the banking sector well-ahead of the 15-year time frame granted by the EU association agreement. The analysis shows most San Marino banks need to catch up in terms of asset quality, capital adequacy and cost efficiency. A system-level consolidation can be considered. The banking sector remains oversized. The number of bank branches needs to be reduced by more than two thirds to reach the EU level. The share of income-generating assets should also be increased.
Keywords:
Nowcasting GDP; NOWCASTING tool; businesses' expectation; association agreement; DFM approach to Nowcasting; A. comparing San Marino bank; San Marino bank; Small and medium enterprises; Income; Manufacturing; Commercial banks; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust: 2024 Borrowing Agreements with Belgium, Denmark, France, Japan, Korea, And Qatar
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents the last six borrowing agreements that were concluded between October 2023 and February 2024 to provide new loan resources to the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) as part of the loan mobilization round launched in July 2021 to support low-income countries (LICs) during the pandemic and beyond. Five of the six agreements use SDRs in the context of SDR channeling. Together these borrowing agreements provide a total amount of SDR 3.9 billion in new PRGT loan resources. The 2021 loan fundraising campaign was concluded successfully. It mobilized total contributions of SDR 14.65 billion from 17 PRGT lenders, well exceeding the SDR 12.6 billion loan target.
Keywords:
transparency policy; PRGT loan disbursement; loan resource; SDR interest rate assumption; loan pledge; Loans; Poverty reduction and development; SDR interest rate
Cover Policy Papers
Use of SDRs in the Acquisition of Hybrid Capital Instruments of the Prescribed Holders
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
On May 10, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board approved the use of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) for the acquisition of hybrid capital instruments issued by prescribed holders. This new use of SDRs, which adds to seven already authorized prescribed SDR operations, is subject to a cumulative limit of SDR 15 billion to minimize liquidity risks. The Executive Board also established a strong expectation that contributors channeling SDRs to prescribed holders under such capital contributions have Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs) in place to ensure sufficient liquidity and equitable distribution of potential SDR exchanges into currencies. A review of the proposed use is expected to be conducted when cumulative hybrid capital contributions surpass SDR 10 billion or two years after the authorization, whichever comes first.
Keywords:
Special Drawing Right; Hybrid Capital Instrument; Voluntary Trading Arrangement; Reserve Asset; SDR channeling; Prescribed Holders; IMF members channeling SDR; capital instrument; use of SDR; prescribed SDR operation; transparency policy; Reserve assets; Currencies; Loans; Liquidity risk; International monetary system; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Fund’s Income Position for FY 2024 and FY 2025-2026
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper updates the projections of the Fund’s income position for FY 2024 and FY 2025-2026 and proposes related decisions for the current and the following financial years. The paper also includes a proposed decision to keep the margin for the rate of charge unchanged until completion of the review of surcharges, but until no later than end FY 2025, at which time the Board would set the margin for the rest of FY 2025 and FY 2026. The Fund’s overall net income for FY 2024 is projected at about SDR 4.4 billion after taking into account pension-related remeasurement gain and estimated retained investment income of the Endowment Account.
Keywords:
Income Position; Lending Income; Investment Income; Expenditures; Margin for the Rate of Charge; Reserve Accumulation; Precautionary Balances; Pension; Provisioning; Payout; Reimbursement; Remeasurement; Surcharges; outlook factor; GRA FY; FY 2024; review of surcharge; market condition; transparency policy; Income; SDR interest rate; Budget planning and preparation; Credit; Discount rates; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Saint Lucia: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Saint Lucia as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The mission focused on addressing data compilation issues on trade in goods—especially on the import and re-export of fuel—and travel credits and assessed the revised 2022 balance of payments that was disseminated in December 2023.
Keywords:
Saint Lucia; balance of payments statistics; external sector statistics.; balance of payments estimate; St. Lucia imports; exit surveys methodology; validation procedure; balance of payments survey; CED data; Civil society organizations; External sector statistics; Imports; Customs unions; Exports; Caribbean
Cover Departmental Papers
Central Bank Digital Currencies in the Middle East and Central Asia
Serpil Bouza
,
Bashar Hlayhel
,
Thomas Kroen
,
Marcello Miccoli
,
Borislava Mircheva
,
Greta Polo
,
Sahra Sakha
, and
Yang Yang
Against the backdrop of a rapidly digitalizing world, there is a growing interest in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) among central banks, including in the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) region. This paper aims to support ME&CA policymakers in examining key questions when considering the adoption of a CBDC while underscoring the importance of country-specific analyses. This paper does not provide recommendations on CBDC issuance. Instead, it frames the discussion around the following key questions: What is a CBDC? What objectives do policymakers aim to achieve with the issuance of a CBDC? Which inefficiencies in payment systems can CBDCs address? What are the implications of CBDC issuance for financial stability and central bank operational risk? How can CBDC design help achieve policy objectives and mitigate these risks? The paper provides preliminary answers to these questions at the regional level. A survey of IMF teams and public statements from ME&CA policymakers confirm that promoting financial inclusion and making payment systems more efficient (domestic and cross-border) are the top priorities in the region. Payment services through CBDCs, if offered at a lower cost than existing alternatives, could spur competition in the payment market and help increase access to bank accounts, improve financial inclusion, and update legacy technology platforms. CBDCs may also help improve the efficiency of cross-border payment services, especially if designed to address frictions arising from a lack of payment system interoperability, complex processing of compliance checks, long transaction chains, and weak competition. At the same time, CBDCs could negatively impact bank profitability while introducing a substantial operational burden for central banks. However, the exact economic and financial impacts of CBDCs need further study and would depend on estimates of CBDC demand, which are uncertain and country- dependent. CBDC issuance and adoption is a long journey that policymakers should approach with care. Policymakers need to analyze carefully whether a CBDC serves their country’s objectives and whether the expected benefits outweigh the potential costs, in addition to risks for the financial system and operational risks for the central bank.
Keywords:
central; bank; digital; currency; CBDC implementation; CBDC design; CBDC uptake; monetary policy pass-through; market power; CBDC issuance; Central Bank digital currencies; Payment systems; Financial inclusion; Digital financial services; Commercial banks; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2024 Update of Resource Adequacy of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust and the Debt Relief Trusts
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
, and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper provides an update of the adequacy of the resources of the Fund’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and the debt relief trusts. Demand for PRGT loans continued to exceed earlier projections. Total PRGT credit outstanding reached SDR 18.3 billion at end-2023, or three times the pre-pandemic average. PRGT fundraising targets under the 2021 two-stage funding strategy to support LICs during the pandemic and beyond were met. Work is underway to implement the pledges. Ensuring PRGT long-term sustainability is a priority, and balancing a level of PRGT lending that meets the demand from eligible countries while ensuring the long-term sustainability of the Trust will be taken up in the ongoing PRGT Review. The Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) remains severely underfunded, after providing debt relief to the IMF’s poorest and most vulnerable members during 2020–22. The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative is nearly complete. Somalia reached its Completion Point under the HIPC Initiative in December 2023, while Sudan’s prospects for reaching its HIPC Completion Point remain uncertain owing to domestic developments.
Keywords:
Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT); Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT); Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC); Resource Adequacy; Concessional financing; Fundraising; PRGT Review; PRGT lending; fundraising round; resource adequacy background; transparency policy; loan resource; Debt relief; Credit; Debt service; Loans; Credit risk; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2024
Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2024
A Tepid and Pricey Recovery
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

After four turbulent years, the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is gradually improving. Growth will rise from 3.4 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in 2024, with nearly two thirds of countries anticipating higher growth. Economic recovery is expected to continue beyond this year, with growth projections reaching 4.0 percent in 2025. Additionally, inflation has almost halved, public debt ratios have broadly stabilized, and several countries have issued Eurobonds this year, ending a two-year hiatus from international markets. However, not all is favorable. The funding squeeze persists as the region’s governments continue to grapple with financing shortages, high borrowing costs, and impending debt repayments. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. The region continues to be more vulnerable to global external shocks, as well as the threat of rising political instability, and frequent climate events. Three policy priorities can help countries adapt to these challenges: improving public finances without undermining development; monetary policy focused on ensuring price stability; and implementing structural reforms to diversify funding sources and economies. Amid these challenges, sub-Saharan African countries will need additional support from the international community to develop a more inclusive, sustainable, and prosperous future.

Keywords:
Sub-Saharan Africa; Slow recovery; Funding squeeze; Monetary policy; Economic diversification; Structural reforms; International support; IMF staff calculation; headline inflation; public finance; IMF financing arrangement; borrowing costs entail; sub-Saharan Africa face; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Fiscal consolidation; Price stabilization; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Africa