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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 13 items for :

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Financial Conditions and Their Growth Implications for Qatar
Dorothy Nampewo
This paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Qatar and uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to examine the impact of financial conditions on Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth. The analysis shows that the FCI is an important leading indicator of Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth, highlighting its predictive potential for future economic performance. The GaR framework suggests that overall, the current downside risks to Qatar’s baseline non-hydrocarbon growth projections are relatively mild.
Keywords:
Financial conditions; non-hydrocarbon growth; Qatar; GaR framework; growth projection; Qatar's baseline; copyright page; financial conditions indicator; Financial conditions index; Oil prices; Central bank policy rate; Deposit rates; Post-clearance customs audit; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Real Estate Sector and Financial Stability Risks in Chile: Chile
Tatsushi Okuda
The Chilean real estate sector has recently undergone adjustments which have increased the risks for the financial sector, but the system remains overall resilient. In the baseline, the real estate market is expected to modestly recover, and several factors mitigate credit risk. The buffers in the financial sector currently appear broadly adequate to absorb stresses from high long-term interest rates and the tail risk of a real estate crisis. Nevertheless, supervisors should monitor these risks closely, keep advancing in closing data gaps, and continue to extend stress test models to comprehensively capture real estate-specific risk factors.
Keywords:
Financial sector stability; Real estate sector; Stress testing; I. housing wealth effect; risk factors; real estate crisis; real estate; Mortgages; Loans; Long term interest rates; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
ECB Monetary Policy Passthrough to Bank Interest Rates During Tightening: Republic of Kosovo
Ezgi O. Ozturk
This paper analyzes the transmission of ECB policy rate changes to bank interest rates in Kosovo during the 2022-23 tightening cycle. While both lending and deposit rates increased, the passthrough was more limited compared to the euro area and regional peers. Three key factors explain this limited transmission: Kosovo's stage of financial development, high banking sector liquidity, and significant bank concentration.
Keywords:
Monetary policy transmission; interest rates; banking sector; euroization; financial development; Kosovo; ECB monetary policy Passthrough; ECB policy rate change; ECB policy rate Passthrough; ECB Policy rate pass-through; Central bank policy rate; Deposit rates; Financial sector development; Inflation; Financial inclusion; Europe
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Financial Buffers in a Euroized Economy: Republic of Kosovo
Javier Kapsoli
and
Ezgi O. Ozturk
This paper analyzes reserve adequacy measurement in Kosovo, where euro serves as the legal tender. The study adapts the IMF's Assessing Reserve Adequacy framework to Kosovo's unique monetary context, focusing on precautionary motives for holding reserves. The analysis reveals limited readily available reserves at the Central Bank of Kosovo and recommends additional government deposits of 1.75-5.75 percent of GDP. Given the significant opportunity costs of maintaining such deposits, the paper suggests alternative solutions, including exploring a private lender of last resort model and maintaining ECB repo lines.
Keywords:
Reserve adequacy; euroization; central bank reserves; liquidity buffers; foreign exchange reserves; bank deposits; monetary policy; Kosovo; Euroized economy; ECB repo line; lender of last resort model; government deposit; Currencies; Lender of last resort; International reserves; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Monetary Policy Issues in the UK: United Kingdom
Agnese Carella
,
Ruo Chen
,
Katherine Dai
,
Gloria Li
,
Ruy Lama
, and
Roland Meeks
After hiking rates 14 consecutive times between December 2021 and August 2023 to arrest above-target inflation, the Bank of England (BoE) has held rates at 5.25 percent since then. As the BoE prepares for easing, this paper examines three concurrent monetary policy questions: (a) how have the macroeconomic and financial effects of BoE monetary tightening during the current cycle compared with experiences in other major advanced economies (AEs), and with previous UK tightening cycles; (b) what is the impact of US Fed decisions on UK monetary transmission, and the attendant implications thereof for BoE communications; and (c) how do model-based predictions of UK monetary policy paths (which seek to stabilize inflation and the output gap) compare with staff’s recommended path in the 2024 Article IV consultation. We find that (a) monetary transmission has largely mirrored previous episodes (and experiences in other major AEs), with the most notable exception of the mortgage channel, which has been slower due to a higher share of fixed-rate mortgages; (b) an outsized impact of Fed announcements on UK financial markets places a premium on BoE communications in a context where the BoE may diverge from the Fed; and (c) optimal rate path predictions are close to staff’s recommended path, although if the BoE attached a high weight to concerns about a prolonged period of above-target inflation leading to de-anchoring of inflation expectations, a slower pace of cuts would be warranted. A technical assistance mission from the IMF's Statistics Department visited Cambodia during April 10-21, 2023, to support the authorities in continuing to improve the compilation and dissemination of government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics (PSDS).
Keywords:
Monetary policy; monetary transmission; central bank communications; BoE communications; monetary policy issue; path prediction; issues in the UK; Fed announcement; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Output gap; Spillovers; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Monetary Policy Transmission in Oman
Thomas Kroen
Amid a pegged exchange rate to the US dollar and an open capital account, Oman’s policy rates move closely with US monetary policy. In this analysis, we show empirically that transmission from policy rates into effective lending and deposit rates remains subdued in Oman, even compared to GCC peers that similarly face a high oil price environment with persistent excess liquidity in the banking system. A cap on personal loan rates and low exposure of banks to SMEs and riskier borrowers limit passthrough into effective lending rates and credit conditions. The note documents ongoing actions by Omani policymakers to strengthen transmission and provides further recommendations on liquidity management, reserve management, and relaxing the interest rate cap.
Keywords:
monetary policy transmission; Oman's policy rates move; Fed policy rate hike; transmission from policy; credit growth; Deposit rates; Credit; Central bank policy rate; Excess liquidity; Interest rate ceilings
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Key Banking System Risks in the WAEMU: WAEMU
Knarik Ayvazyan
The gradual alignment of prudential regulations on Basel II/III standards since 2018, as well as improvements in banking supervision and macroprudential surveillance, have contributed to the WAEMU’s banking system’s resilience to recent global and regional shocks. However, while cyclical vulnerabilities have been contained, bank credit portfolios remain highly concentrated, and their exposure to sovereign risks has grown substantially in recent years, together with liquidity risks. Further reforms building on those recently implemented in line with recommendations from the 2022 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), including to enhance macroprudential policy’s effectiveness and banking supervision frameworks, will help address such vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
WAEMU; banks; risk; stress test; financial stability; credit gap; banking system's resilience; bank credit portfolio; Banking System risk; banking supervision framework; risks in the WAEMU; Commercial banks; Government securities; Securities; Market risk; Macroprudential policy; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Recent Challenges to the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the WAEMU: WAEMU
Alain Feler
and
Lawrence Norton
This paper discusses recent challenges in BCEAO monetary policy, from a recent spike in inflation, the persistent erosion of external reserves, and strains in the regional financial market. In response to these shocks, the BCEAO operated via both policy rates and liquidity management, including by shifting from fixed to variable rate auctions. The paper finds that the conduct of monetary policy became progressively more constrained by financial stability and external viability challenges, arguing for enhanced monetary-fiscal policy coordination to help the BCEAO meet its reserves objectives.
Keywords:
BCEAO; WAEMU; monetary policy; CFA franc; BCEAO purchase; conduct of monetary policy; viability challenge; BCEAO refinancing; FX reserve; Liquidity; Central bank policy rate; Securities; Financial sector stability; International reserves; Global; West Africa
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Domestic and External Drivers of Inflation: The Gambia
Jean-Claude Nachega
,
Glen Kwende
,
Laurent Kemoe
, and
Fidel A Márquez Barroeta
This paper investigates the drivers of headline inflation and the degree of exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) in The Gambia over the period 2014-2023. The analysis highlights the decisive long-term roles of global prices of commodities (food, oil and fertilizer), the exchange rate, and the domestic output gap. The short-run dynamics of inflation points to the roles of global food price and the second-round effects of changes in food prices and the output gap. Monetary policy has the potential to tame inflation in the short run provided the monetary policy rate is adjusted rapidly and boldly. Lastly, there is evidence of an asymmetric ERPT to domestic prices, and the size of currency depreciation matters for inflation dynamics.
Keywords:
Inflation; monetary policy rate; oil prices; food prices; fertilizer prices; exchange rates; inflation dynamics; inflation point; drivers of inflation; points to the role; Output gap; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Optimal Fiscal Path Considerations: Portugal
Mr. Ippei Shibata
and
Mr. Volodymyr Tulin
Despite achieving a rapid reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years, Portugal's debt ratio remains relatively high at 113.9 percent of GDP in end-2022. This paper employs an analytical model to determine the appropriate trajectory for structural consolidation to sustain ambitious debt reduction over the medium term, taking into account the uncertainties in the economic landscape. The model points to a need for continued fiscal tightening between 2024 and 2028. Optimal consolidation would be higher under higher longterm interest rates, lower medium-term growth prospects, or increased market sensitivity to debt.
Keywords:
Fiscal stance; cycle stabilization; government deficit; government debt; Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund; Portugal's debt ratio; model point; interest rate sensitivity; I. model detail; Real interest rates; Fiscal consolidation; Government debt management