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Business and Economics > Banks and Banking

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on securing fiscal discipline and credibility in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Fiscal consolidation and the reintroduction of the WAEMU fiscal framework Pact—is crucial for maintaining debt sustainability, external viability, and financial stability, while promoting access to lower cost financing and rebuilding fiscal buffers. Members’ adjustment plans should emphasize domestic revenue mobilization, while controlling expenditure, notably the wage bill. In order to enhance fiscal credibility, and maximize prospects for debt sustainability, financial stability and external viability, it is essential and urgent to reintroduce regional fiscal rules at the original ceilings—3 percent gross domestic product (GDP) for deficit and 70 percent GDP for debt. It is also essential to implement a consistent definition of fiscal indicators across the region, avoiding carve-outs for particular spending items. In order to secure fiscal discipline and credibility, it is critical to establish effective mechanisms for assessment, accountability, and enforcement, including by defining a credible debt correction mechanism and exogenous escape clauses, as well as building an effective communication strategy.
Keywords:
deficit ceiling; climate adaption; WAEMU level; WAEMU population; WAEMU lag; Gender inequality; Climate change; Agricultural commodities; Women; Securities; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Proposal to Improve Country-Level Data on Total Factor Productivity Growth
Andrew M. Warner
The assumption behind popular data on national capital stocks, and therefore total factor productivity, is that countries were in a steady state in the first year that investment data became available. This paper argues that this assumption is highly implausible and is necessarily responsible for implausible data on the ratio of capital to output and productivity growth. It is not credible that countries with similar incomes had huge differences in their capital stocks. This paper claims, with evidence, that implausible features of the data can be greatly reduced by using data on electricity usage or national stocks of road vehicles.
Keywords:
Productivity; Total Factor Productivity; Economic Growth; capital output ratio; total factor productivity growth; capita-output ratio; investment data; TFP growth estimate; Capital productivity; Stocks; Capital adequacy requirements; Electricity; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of North Macedonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on challenges and policies regarding climate change in the Republic of North Macedonia. A scale-up of private and public investments, along with decommission of old and polluting coal-based power plants, is needed to adapt to climate change and meet emissions targets as part of the green transition. The EU-Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (EU-CBAM) from 2026 will affect North Macedonia, and the authorities should consider a gradual introduction of carbon taxation to prepare for the EU-CBAM, as also envisioned in existing legislation. The introduction of the EU CBAM will influence North Macedonia’s exports to the EU negatively, as well as revenue collected, as part of the EU CBAM will be foregone revenue for North Macedonia. Instead, North Macedonia should consider a form of carbon taxation, as also envisioned in existing legislation, to collect the revenue by the state, as well as recycle part of this to mitigate the impact of the carbon tax and further support the green transition.
Keywords:
interest rate pass-through; long term interest rates pass-through; interest rate transmission; climate policy agenda; productivity competition; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Central bank policy rate; Climate change; Electricity; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: Second Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Request for an Extension of the Policy Coordination Instrument, Modification of Targets, Inflation Band Consultation, and Request of Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Paraguay
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Paraguay’s Second Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Request for an Extension of the Policy Coordination Instrument, Modification of Targets, Inflation Band Consultation, and Request of Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The government is committed to continued prudent macroeconomic policies and the implementation of structural reforms, including a series of adaptation and mitigation measures and to preserve and expand its green energy matrix. Barring global and weather-related external shocks, Paraguay’s growth prospects are bright. It remains important for Paraguay to rebuild fiscal buffers, including through implementation of long-standing structural reforms. The re-establishment of the fiscal deficit rule by 2026 is rightfully the government’s key priority. The authorities are committed to implementing an ambitious set of climate-related reforms consistent with maximum access under the RSF. The commitment to implement an ambitious matrix of climate-related reforms, closely coordinated with development partners, will help enhance the country’s image as a ‘green’ investment destination.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflation-targeting regime; sound capacity; BCP credit survey; RSF request; Climate change; Electricity; Global; South America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Gold as International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More?
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
,
Mr. Barry J. Eichengreen
, and
Chima Simpson-Bell
After moving slowly downward for the better part of four decades, central bank gold holdings have risen since the Global Financial Crisis. We identify 14 “active diversifiers,” defined as countries that purchased gold and raised its share in total reserves by at least 5 percentage points over the last two decades. In contrast to the diversification of foreign currency reserves, which has been undertaken by advanced and developing country central banks alike, active diversifiers into gold are exclusively emerging markets. We document two sets of factors contributing to this trend. First, gold appeals to central bank reserve managers as a safe haven in periods of economic, financial and geopolitical volatility, when the return on alternative financial assets is low. Second, the imposition of financial sanctions by the United States, United Kingdom, European Union and Japan, the main reserve-issuing economies, is associated with an increase in the share of central bank reserves held in the form of gold. There is some evidence that multilateral sanctions imposed by these, and other countries have a larger impact than unilateral sanctions on the share of reserves held in gold, since the latter leave scope for shifting reserves into the currencies of other non-sanctioning countries.
Keywords:
International Reserves; Gold; Sanctions; aggregate gold share regression; gold appeal; share of gold; gold share; country level gold share regression; Gold reserves; Reserve assets; Gold prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Azerbaijan: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Azerbaijan faced unprecedented challenges in 2020. The combined COVID-19 and oil price shocks pushed the economy into recession. A sizeable relief package helped cushion the economic impact from this shock, and the economy has started to recover. Yet the medium-term outlook remains subdued. The long-term fiscal position is unsustainable as oil resources are expected to run out by mid-century. The authorities have laid out strategic goals of accelerated yet sustainable socio-economic development over the next decade and are developing policy plans to that end.
Keywords:
CPI data ROSC; fund Dept; safeguards assessment policy; fund surveillance; transparency policy; International Monetary Fund Washington; d.c; Oil prices; Oil; External sector statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On September 30, 2020, the IMF Executive Board approved a 27-month arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with exceptional access (SDR 4,615 million, 661 percent of quota, about $6.5 billion) to help Ecuador restore macroeconomic stability and pursue the unfinished structural agenda from the previous program. High frequency indicators point to improvements in economic activity after bottoming out in Q2, while oil prices have been declining relative to earlier assumptions, leaving the macroeconomic outlook broadly unchanged over the medium term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; upside risk; EFF arrangement; procurement procedure; dollarization regime; IMF management team; Oil; Oil prices; Credit; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ecuador: Request for Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Cancellation of Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This chapter presents Ecuador’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) and Cancellation of Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Ecuador is facing urgent and immediate balance of payment (BOP) needs driven by the sharp propagation of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak—Ecuador is one of the hardest hit countries in Latin America—a plummeting of oil prices, and a dramatic collapse of global demand. In the near term, the authorities have taken significant measures to contain the spread of the virus and mitigate the socio-economic impact. Containment measures include the closing of schools and universities, public spaces and noncritical commercial activities, halting public transport, and imposing a nationwide curfew. Additional support from other external partners will be required and critical to close the remaining financing gap and ease budget constraints. The RFI will help Ecuador finance the much-needed health and social assistance spending and catalyze financing from other multilateral financial institutions.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; financing constraint; RFI resource; Ecuador's request; EFF program; short-term outlook; Oil prices; Oil; International reserves; Fiscal stance; Global; COVID-19
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sudan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Sudan provides a first stock-taking of the scale, main transmission channels and potential costs of poor governance and corruption in Sudan and offers preliminary recommendations. A large body of literature and country analyses confirm that weak governance and corruption undermine economic growth, amplify income inequality and erode public trust in the institutions. According to international agencies and existing literature, Sudan has scored very poorly on compliance with rule of law best practices in the past. Effective implementation of preventive measures is important; particularly in relation to politically exposed persons. Transparency on beneficial ownership of legal persons and arrangements to prevent their misuse for laundering the proceeds of corruption are necessary. Transparency, accountability, and comprehensive communication should be the backbone of governance and anti-corruption reforms in each sector. Rationalizing tax exemptions and phasing out tax holidays would strengthen governance while boosting fiscal revenues.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Sudan; bank; risk profile; IMF staff calculation; authority; joint venture bank; supervision capacity need; revenue loss; generation company; governance mission; improving tax performance; customs authority; Oil; Corruption; Oil sector; Energy subsidies; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Kazakhstan discusses that the political transition has increased the focus on social conditions and regional and rural development. Discussions focused on enhancing the inflation-targeting framework, bank soundness, the fiscal framework, structural reforms, and governance. Growth has been buoyed by new spending, retail credit, and oil and gas investments. Inflation has picked up, and the current account has deteriorated. High domestic demand driven by major oil and gas investments and government and household consumption supported by wage increases and consumer lending has underpinned the economy’s strong performance. The state continues to play a strong role in the economy, and the authorities face challenges ensuring that measures are well targeted and effective in promoting private sector growth. The challenges include oil volatility and dependency, reliance on subsidies and other state support, still-impaired banks, and governance vulnerabilities. Progress is being made with structural reform implementation, with many of the flagships “100 Concrete Steps” completed and the remaining ones broadly on track. Efforts to promote a smaller state footprint should continue, with actions to improve governance and mitigate corruption vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF TA; headline inflation; IMF government Finance Statistics Yearbook; lending; government; Kazakhstani authorities; target band; consumer lending; FSI website; NBK policy rate; Fiscal stance; Fiscal governance; Government finance statistics; Oil; Global