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Mr. Eswar S Prasad
and
Raghuram Rajan
China has achieved tremendous economic progress in the last three decades, but there is much work to be done to make the economy resilient to large shocks, ensure the sustainability of its growth, and translate this growth into corresponding improvements in the economic welfare of its citizens. We discuss the complex challenges that Chinese policymakers face in striking the right balance in terms of speed and coordination of reforms. We argue that China's current stage of development, along with its rising market orientation and increasing integration with the world economy, may make the incremental and piecemeal approaches to reforms increasingly untenable and, in some cases, could even generate risks of their own. The present favorable domestic and external circumstances provide an excellent window of opportunity for bolder reforms and for tackling some deep-rooted problems without causing much economic disruption.
Ms. Julie A Kozack
Assessments regarding the effectiveness of sovereign debt restructurings are often summarized by comparisons of the net present value of debt service before and after the restructuring. These calculations are inherently sensitive to the choice of discount rate. This paper explores issues that arise in selecting discount rates when evaluating sovereign debt restructurings. It suggests using a range of discount rates and centering the analysis around the internal rate of return to assess whether the debt restructuring has generated net present value savings or costs to the debtor.
Mr. Gauti B. Eggertsson
and
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
This paper examines the effects of quantitative easing implemented by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) since early 2001, looking specifically at the impact on inflation expectations and real asset prices. It suggests a number of possible channels through which quantitative easing may have exerted influence, and reviews some of the empirical evidence linking open market operations and long-term bond purchases to real yields and other asset prices. It argues that quantitative easing has had smaller effects on nominal and real variables than desired, mainly because the BoJ has not succeeded in credibly communicating its policy intentions once the zero bound on short-term rates ceases to be binding. It argues that setting clear goals for inflation and a return to interest rate targeting are not only key elements of a successful strategy to avoid deflation, but are also essential to pin down expectations and avoid instability once deflation wanes.
Mr. Olaf Unteroberdoerster
This paper reviews recent banking reform efforts in the lower Mekong countries (LMCs), comprising Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and Vietnam. Linked by close economic and cultural ties, the three LMCs face the dual challenge of economic development and transition to market-based economies. Two-tier banking systems were formally introduced in the late 1980s. However, state-owned banks with weak balance sheets continue to dominate the banking systems of Vietnam and Lao P.D.R. Cambodia's main challenge is to reconstruct a banking system after decades of civil strife. Based on progress made and brief cross-country comparisons, the paper identifies key challenges and options for further reform.
Mr. Stefan N Ingves
,
Mr. Steven A. Seelig
, and
Mr. Dong He
This paper discusses the role of asset management companies (AMCs) in facilitating bank restructuring and specifies some policy lessons learned from international experience. The paper concludes that there is no single optimal solution but a combination of strategies that will vary from bank to bank and country to country. There are, however, common factors that contribute to the success of an AMC and these include the legal environment, leadership, independence, incentives, and commercial orientation.
Mr. Michael Andrews
Bonds issued by the government or government agencies are often used to finance bank restructuring following a systemic crisis. Many conflicting considerations affect the design of the bonds used to pay for public sector investment in bank equity or the purchase of distressed assets from banks. Some bond features can leave restructured banks facing significant risks, laying the foundation for future banking sector problems. Sovereign default makes publicly financed bank restructuring more difficult, but it is still possible to carry out if banks receive sufficient interest income to provide a margin over their cost of funds.
Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko
,
Padamja Khandelwal
, and
Mr. Alexander Lehmann
We assess the current barriers to trade in financial services in the six Central American countries seeking a free trade agreement with the United States (the CAFTA) and examine the relative merits of regional and multilateral liberalization. Even though there are few formal barriers, deficiencies in regulatory and competition standards and in the judicial systems still restrict the participation of foreign institutions in the financial systems in the region. A greater presence of such institutions could support other objectives of trade and investment liberalization, though it would require several adjustments in prudential supervision at national levels and greater cooperation between members of the CAFTA.
Mr. R. B. Johnston
,
Mr. Balázs Horváth
,
Mr. Luca Errico
, and
Ms. Jingqing Chai
This paper examines the regulatory and supervisory implications stemming from the dominance of large and complex financial institutions, drawing on the recent Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) mission work on Sweden. The analysis highlights the importance of consolidated supervision, of a greater emphasis on effective management and corporate governance structures, and of measures strengthening the disciplinary role of the private sector. It calls for developing credible liquidity and crisis management arrangements through appropriate attention to the cross-product and cross-border nature of large and complex financial institution (LCFI) operations. Strengthened supervisory and regulatory responses will enable financial markets to better assess the nature and sources of residual risks they have to face and, on this basis, to develop more effective risk-mitigating measures.
Ms. Claudia H Dziobek
and
Mr. Mei Jin
Monthly economic statistical bulletins issued by central banks and national statistical offices, the focus of this study, are well established in countries with advanced statistical systems. Such bulletins present a synopsis of current economic trends and cater to a broad group of users involved in policy, markets, media, and research. Compendium bulletins serve as a reference point, contribute to public economic knowledge and transparency, and can add to international visibility. The authors find that only about half of developing countries produce monthly bulletins. Based on experience in industrial countries and a survey of 22 successful bulletins from developing countries, this paper highlights the role of such bulletins and discusses selected aspects of their content, production, and dissemination.
Ms. Andrea Schaechter
Using electronic delivery channels for banking services and products has become increasingly popular in recent years. Electronic banking makes it possible to offer banking services around the world 24 hours a day. The dependence on technology for providing the services with the necessary security, and the cross-border nature of transactions, involve additional risks for banks and new challenges for banking regulators and supervisors. This paper provides an overview of some of the issues resulting from the development of electronic banking and how they are currently being addressed by regulatory and supervisory authorities.