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Julien Acalin and Laurence M. Ball
The fall in the U.S. public debt/GDP ratio from 106% in 1946 to 23% in 1974 is often attributed to high rates of economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951. Our central result is a simulation of the path that the debt/GDP ratio would have followed with primary budget balance and without the distortions in real interest rates caused by surprise inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history. Moreover, the ratio starts rising again in 1980 and in 2022 it is 84%. These findings imply that, over the last 76 years, only a small amount of debt reduction has been achieved through growth rates that exceed undistorted interest rates.
Robert C. M. Beyer, Ruo Chen, Florian Misch, Claire Li, Ezgi O. Ozturk, and Lev Ratnovski
The extent to which changes in monetary policy rates lead to changes in loan and deposit rates for households and firms, referred to as ‘pass-through’, is an important ingredient of monetary policy transmission to output and prices. Using data on seven different bank interest rates in 30 European countries, different approaches, and the full sample as well as a subsample of euro area countries, we show that a) the pass-through in the post-pandemic hiking cycle has been heterogenous across countries and types of interest rates; b) the pass-through has generally been weaker and slower, except for rates of non-financial corporation loans and time deposits in euro area countries; c) differences in pass-through over time and across countries for most deposit rates are correlated with financial sector concentration, liquidity, and loan opportunities, and d) the effects of pass-through to outstanding mortgage rates on monetary transmission on prices and output are heterogenous across countries.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Despite a very challenging socio-political environment, the authorities continue to prioritize fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability in their policy actions. An agreement-in-principle at the technical level has been reached on the debt treatment with China that is in line with other creditors and consistent with debt sustainability objectives. The formal debt exchange with private external bondholders has been finalized in November with high participation rate.
Harold James

Abstract

The book explores the Fund’s engagement in Europe in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, and especially after 2010. It explains how, why, and with what consequences the International Monetary Fund—along with the European Central Bank and the European Commission (together known as “the troika”)—supported adjustment programs in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Cyprus as well as helping to monitor Spain’s adjustment program and exploring modalities for supporting Italy. Additionally, it analyzes how the euro area developments interacted with and affected the rest of Europe, including not only eastern and southeastern Europe but also the United Kingdom, where the political fallout from post-financial crisis populism—in the form of “Brexit” from the European Union—was, in the end, the most extreme. The IMF’s European programs embroiled the Fund in numerous controversies over the exceptionally large lending, over whether or not to impose losses on private creditors, and over the mix between external financing and internal adjustment undertaken by program countries. They also required the IMF to confront longstanding questions about its governance and evenhandedness in the treatment of different segments of its membership. The crisis programs, with Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus, all revolved around debt sustainability. In the Greek case, after an intense internal debate, the IMF initially chose a program without debt reduction because it feared that such a program–even if ultimately in the interests of Greece, the client country–would trigger a panic of banks and other creditors and thus generate contagion for the rest of Europe. Learning from the Greek case, in Ireland and Portugal, the IMF pushed for debt reduction, to which the government in Ireland but not in Portugal was sympathetic. There was thus no private sector debt reduction in Ireland and Portugal. The European programs were caught up in big geopolitical debates about the appropriate role of the Fund in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. The book examines the intellectual and policy shifts that took place in the IMF as a result of the controversies about its European programs. It concludes with some reflections on how all the programs also produced genuine policy reform and held out the possibility of a return to growth and prosperity.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Despite a challenging global environment, growth is recovering, and the labor market is resilient. The current account deficit has narrowed significantly, foreign direct investment (FDI) remains robust, and foreign exchange reserves are at record highs. Risks have fallen since the start of the program. The authorities intend to treat the SBA as precautionary starting from this review, one review earlier than planned.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
India is on track to be one of the fastest growing major economies in the world this year, underpinned by prudent macroeconomic policies. Nonetheless, the economy is facing global headwinds, including a global growth slowdown in an increasingly fragmented world.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the Bank of Papua New Guinea (BPNG), and with the support of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) Asia and Pacific Department (APD), the Statistics Department (STA) conducted an in-person technical assistance (TA) mission on the compilation of financial soundness indicators (FSIs) during November 14-18, 2022, in Port Moresby. Prior to the mission, the BPNG was compiling and reporting a set of FSIs to STA which are disseminated in the IMF’s FSI data portal. The mission, in collaboration with the BPNG staff, updated the methodologies for compiling FSIs for deposit takers and developed new FSIs for life insurance corporations and pension funds in line with the 2019 FSIs Guide, for reporting to STA. This mission is financed by the Financial Sector Stability Fund (FSSF) FSIs Sub-Module.
Mr. Jiaqian Chen, Ms. Era Dabla-Norris, Carlos Goncalves, Zoltan Jakab, and Jesper Lindé
This paper argues case that a tighter fiscal policy stance can meaningfully support central banks in fighting inflation in both advanced and emerging market economies. While the standard textbook result suggest that monetary policy is much more effective than fiscal policy in battling inflation in open economies due to the exchange rate channel, we show that a tighter fiscal stance is notably more effective in the current situation. This is so because when many countries currently need to tighten the policy stance simultaneously, the exchange rate channel does not provide monetary policy with an edge over fiscal policy. We also show that fiscal consolidation can be helpful in small open emerging markets and developing economies by reaffirming their commitment to price stability, and by putting the fiscal house in order which reduces risk premiums and strengthens the currency. Furthermore, we show that spillovers from major economies can be more adverse from tighter monetary policy. By applying a two-agent New Keynesian modeling framework with unconstrained and hand-to-mouth households, we show that any adverse effects of tighter fiscal policy (relative to tighter monetary policy) on consumption inequality can be handled with a combination of general spending cuts and targeted transfers to vulnerable households.