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Asia and Pacific > Bhutan

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Cover South Asia's Path to Resilient Growth
South Asia's Path to Resilient Growth

Abstract

South Asia’s Path to Resilient Growth highlights the remarkable development progress in South Asia and how the region can advance in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Steps include a renewed push toward greater trade and financial openness, while responding proactively to the distributional impact and dislocation associated with this structural transformation. Promoting a green and digital recovery remains important. The book explores ways to accelerate the income convergence process in the region, leveraging on the still-large potential demographic dividend in most of the countries. These include greater economic diversification and export sophistication, trade and foreign direct investment liberalization and participation in global value chains amid shifting regional and global conditions, financial development, and investment in human capital.

Keywords:
South Asia; sustainable growth; structural reforms; macro-financial management; IMF staff calculation; poverty head count ratio; health outcome; government of India; infrastructure investment; technical efficiency; value chain; teachers' wage; Exports; Climate change; Employment; Inflation targeting; East Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bhutan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bhutan
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The pandemic has had a substantial impact on the economy, straining pre-pandemic gains in income and poverty reduction. The wide-ranging policy measures, including containment protocols, rapid vaccination and booster campaigns, direct income support, and policy support for borrowers and businesses, mitigated the adverse impact on lives and well-being. As the pandemic recedes and in light of the uncertainties from the war in Ukraine, the focus needs to be on securing livelihoods and ensuring strong and job-rich medium-term growth, while minimizing any persistent adverse effects from the pandemic and mitigating risks.
Keywords:
development goal; quarterly balance of payments; income support; FDI investment rule; Five-Year Plans; food price; COVID-19; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; South Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bangladesh: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
RMG industry; FDI inflow; health spending efficiency; Bangladesh labor force; TFP growth loss; Climate change; Climate finance; COVID-19; Exports; Global; South Asia; Total factor productivity
Cover IMF Working Papers
Climate Change in South Asia: Further Need for Mitigation and Adaptation
Ruchir Agarwal, Vybhavi Balasundharam, Patrick Blagrave, Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti, Ragnar Gudmundsson, and Racha Mousa
The South Asia region is both a large contributor to climate change and also one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change. This paper provides an overview of the region’s vulnerabilities, national committments to mitigate emissions, and national policies to adapt to a changing climate. The paper also discusses policy measures that may be needed to make further progress on both mitigation and adapatation. Our analysis suggests that while substantial progress is being made, there remains scope to adopt a more cohesive strategy to achieve the region’s goals—including by improving the monitoring and tracking of adaptation spending, and by laying the groundwork to equitably increase the effective price of carbon while protecting low-income and vulnerable households in the region.
Keywords:
South Asia region; mitigation policy; policy measure; climate change in South Asia; power generation; Climate change; Climate finance; Natural disasters; Greenhouse gas emissions; South Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Diversification Strategy for South Asia
Weicheng Lian, Fei Liu, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, and Biying Zhu
While South Asia has gone a long way in diversifying their economies, there is substantial scope to do more. Some countries – India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka – can build on their existing production capabilities; others – Bangladesh, Bhutan, and the Maldives – would need to undertake a more concerted push. We identify key policies from a large set of potential determinants that explain the variation in export diversification and complexity across 189 countries from 1962 to 2018. Our analysis suggests that South Asia needs to invest in infrastructure, education, and R&D, facilitate bank credit to productive companies, and open to trade in order to diversify and move up the value chains. Given the COVID-19 pandemic, investing in digital technologies as part of the infrastructure push and improving education are of even greater importance to facilitate the ability to work remotely and assist resource reallocation away from the less viable sectors.
Keywords:
summary statistic; outlook index; Economics complexity; South Asia's progress; diversification of export; Export diversification; Exports; Infrastructure; Income; South Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Defying the Odds: Remittances During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar, Mr. Montfort Mlachila, Mr. Saad N Quayyum, and Vigninou Gammadigbe
This paper provides an early assessment of the dynamics and drivers of remittances during the COVID-19 pandemic, using a newly compiled monthly remittance dataset for a sample of 52 countries, of which 16 countries with bilateral remittance data. The paper documents a strong resilience in remittance flows, notwithstanding an unprecedent global recession triggered by the pandemic. Using the local projection approach to estimate the impulse response functions of remittance flows during Jan 2020-Dec 2020, the paper provides evidence that: (i) remittances responded positively to COVID-19 infection rates in migrant home countries, underscoring its role as an important automatic stabilizer; (ii) stricter containment measures have the unintended consequence of dampening remittances; and (iii) a shift from informal to formal remittance channels due to travel restrictions appears to have also played a role in the surge in formal remittances. Lastly, the size of the fiscal stimulus in host countries is positively associated with remittances as the fiscal response cushions the economic impact of the pandemic.
Keywords:
Remittances; COVID-19; Shocks; impulse response function; infection rate; home economy; remittance flow; corridor data; Fiscal stimulus; Migration; Inward remittances; Global