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Western Hemisphere > Brazil

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Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
Mauro Cazzaniga, Florence Jaumotte, Longji Li, Giovanni Melina, Augustus J Panton, Carlo Pizzinelli, Emma J Rockall, and Marina Mendes Tavares
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape the global economy, especially in the realm of labor markets. Advanced economies will experience the benefits and pitfalls of AI sooner than emerging market and developing economies, largely due to their employment structure focused on cognitive-intensive roles. There are some consistent patterns concerning AI exposure, with women and college-educated individuals more exposed but also better poised to reap AI benefits, and older workers potentially less able to adapt to the new technology. Labor income inequality may increase if the complementarity between AI and high-income workers is strong, while capital returns will increase wealth inequality. However, if productivity gains are sufficiently large, income levels could surge for most workers. In this evolving landscape, advanced economies and more developed emerging markets need to focus on upgrading regulatory frameworks and supporting labor reallocation, while safeguarding those adversely affected. Emerging market and developing economies should prioritize developing digital infrastructure and digital skills
Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence; Labor Market; Job Displacement; Income Inequality; Advanced Economies; Emerging Market Economies; Low-Income Developing Countries; AI preparedness index; AI benefit; AI exposure; ICT employment share; AI adoption; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Income; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Automation and Welfare: The Role of Bequests and Education
Manuk Ghazanchyan, Alexei Goumilevski, and Alex Mourmouras
This paper examines the welfare effects of automation in neoclassical growth models with and without intergenerational transfers. In a standard overlapping generations model without such transfers, improvements in automation technologies that would lower welfare can be mitigated by shifts in labor supply related to demographics or pandemics. With perfect intergenerational transfers based on altruism, automation could raise the well-being of all generations. With imperfect altruism, fiscal transfers (universal basic income) and public policies to expand access to education opportunities can alleviate much of the negative effect of automation.
Keywords:
Automation; Aging; Altruism; Fiscal Policy; Education; Overlapping Generations; appendix B. Replicating Kotlikoff; automation technology; IMF working papers; welfare effect; S model; production function; Income; Human capital; Consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Non-traded Gains From Trade - Selection in the Non-Traded Sector: Evidence from Brazil
Rafael Machado Parente and Rowan Shi
We investigate how trade shocks affect the allocation of labor across plants at the local labor market level. Using Brazil’s import liberalization as a quasi-natural experiment, we uncover a new margin for the gains from trade: the reallocation of labor from smaller to larger producers in the non-traded sector. We find that in response to liberalization, larger non-traded producers self-select into importing, expanding as they gain access to inputs from abroad. We then develop a parsimonious model of heterogeneous producers incorporating this mechanism. The theory is consistent with the empirical findings and show that reallocation among non-traded producers is welfare-enhancing. In contrast, this reallocation effect disappears when all nontraded producers make the same importing decision.
Keywords:
Gains from trade; trade liberalization; non-traded sector; firm Selection; import liberalization policy; importing behavior; trade shock; margin reallocation; reallocation effect; Imports; Labor markets; Trade policy; Employment
Cover IMF Working Papers
How the Brady Plan Delivered on Debt Relief: Lessons and Implications
Mr. Neil Shenai and Marijn A. Bolhuis
Rising debt vulnerabilities in low- and middle-income countries have rekindled interest in a Brady Plan-style mechanism to facilitate debt restructurings. To inform this debate, this paper analyzes the impact of the original Brady Plan by comparing macroeconomic outcomes of 10 Brady countries to 40 other emerging markets and developing economies. The paper finds that following the first Brady restructuring in 1990, Brady countries experienced substantial declines in public and external debt burdens and a sharp pick-up in output and productivity growth, anchored by a comparatively strong structural reform effort. The impact of the Brady Plan on overall debt burdens was many times greater than initial face value reductions, indicating the existence of a “Brady multiplier.” Brady restructurings took longer to complete than non-Brady restructurings. Today, similar mechanisms could be helpful in delivering meaningful debt stock reduction when solvency challenges are acute, but Brady-style mechanisms alone would not solve existing challenges in the sovereign debt landscape, including those related to creditor coordination, domestic barriers to economic reforms, and the increased prevalence of domestic debt, among others.
Keywords:
Brady Plan; sovereign debt restructuring; debt relief; debt sustainability; differences-in-differences; synthetic control method; stock reduction; Brady deal; IMF program performance; IMF working paper 23/258; Brady country; Debt restructuring; Structural reforms; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Notes
Expanding and Improving Social Safety Nets Through Digitalization: Conceptual Framework and Review of Country Experiences
Nicolo Bird and Emine Hanedar
Social safety nets (SSNs) are focal policies that support poor and vulnerable households, most prominently through cash transfers. However, strong discrepancies persist across countries in terms of spending, coverage, and targeting of SSNs, with larger gaps often found in low-income countries. Digital technologies can prove vital in supporting a rapid expansion of SSNs around the world. Governments need to do three things for this: identify, verify, and pay. This note explains how countries can make considerable improvements across these three dimensions despite differences in capacity levels. It examines six case studies of countries―Brazil, Democratic Republic of Congo, India, Pakistan, Togo, and Türkiye―that used and adapted digital technologies in different ways due, in large part, to variations in digital SSN infrastructures in place before the onset of COVID-19. These case studies illustrate how (1) innovative digital technologies can help overcome lack of government capacity to implement SSNs, even in countries with a lack of digital infrastructure or capacity, and (2) countries with stronger digital infrastructure or investments in SSNs before COVID-19 were able to complement existing policies to reach more people and to provide stronger responses than countries without preexisting SSN frameworks.
Keywords:
social safety nets; digitalization; COVID-19; fiscal sustainability
Cover IMF Working Papers
Mitigating Climate Change at the Firm Level: Mind the Laggards
Mr. Damien Capelle, Mr. Divya Kirti, Mr. Nicola Pierri, and Mr. German Villegas Bauer
Using self-reported data on emissions for a global sample of 4,000 large, listed firms, we document large heterogeneity in environmental performance within the same industry and country. Laggards—firms with high emissions relative to the scale of their operations—are larger, operate older physical capital stocks, are less knowledge intensive and productive, and adopt worse management practices. To rationalize these findings, we build a novel general equilibrium heterogeneous-firm model in which firms choose capital vintages and R&D expenditure and hence emissions. The model matches the full empirical distribution of firm-level heterogeneity among other moments. Our counter-factual analysis shows that this heterogeneity matters for assessing the macroeconomic costs of mitigation policies, the channels through which policies act, and their distributional effects. We also quantify the gains from technology transfers to EMDEs.
Keywords:
Climate Change; Productivity; Technology Adoption; Capital Vintages; Emissions; R&D expenditure; capital vintage; management practice; emission intensity; emission Intensity; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Consumption; Stocks; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere, October 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Western Hemisphere, October 2023
Securing Low Inflation and Nurturing Potential Growth
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

After a stronger-than-expected recovery from the pandemic and continued resilience in early 2023, economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is softening as the effect of tighter policies to combat inflation is taking hold and the external environment is weakening. The early and swift monetary tightening across the region since 2021, together with the withdrawal of most of the pandemic fiscal stimulus and the reversal of external price pressures, have helped put headline inflation on a downward trajectory. Core inflation has also started to ease, as price pressures are becoming less generalized, although it remains elevated amid strong labor markets and positive output gaps in some countries. Banking systems have weathered the rise in interest rates well and are generally healthy, though credit to the private sector is decelerating amid tighter supply conditions and weaker demand.

Keywords:
inflation; regional outlook; fragmentation; global trade; Latin America and the Caribbean; banking systems; volatility; IMF staff calculation; inflation expectation; cash equivalent; contractionary monetary policy; end-of-period inflation; price pressure; inflation gap; inflation projection; headline inflation in Brazil; inflation shock; return on equity; inflation from the inflation target; Fiscal stance; Central bank policy rate; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Purchasing power parity; Caribbean; Central America; South America; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Labor Market Exposure to AI: Cross-country Differences and Distributional Implications
Carlo Pizzinelli, Augustus J Panton, Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares, Mauro Cazzaniga, and Longji Li
This paper examines the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on labor markets in both Advanced Economies (AEs) and Emerging Markets (EMs). We propose an extension to a standard measure of AI exposure, accounting for AI's potential as either a complement or a substitute for labor, where complementarity reflects lower risks of job displacement. We analyze worker-level microdata from 2 AEs (US and UK) and 4 EMs (Brazil, Colombia, India, and South Africa), revealing substantial variations in unadjusted AI exposure across countries. AEs face higher exposure than EMs due to a higher employment share in professional and managerial occupations. However, when accounting for potential complementarity, differences in exposure across countries are more muted. Within countries, common patterns emerge in AEs and EMs. Women and highly educated workers face greater occupational exposure to AI, at both high and low complementarity. Workers in the upper tail of the earnings distribution are more likely to be in occupations with high exposure but also high potential complementarity.
Keywords:
Artificial intelligence; Employment; Occupations; Emerging Markets; impact of artificial intelligence; exposure to AI; labor market exposure; employment share; educated worker; Labor markets
Cover Policy Papers
Making Public Debt Public—Ongoing Initiatives and Reform Options—Background Paper
International Monetary Fund
This Background Paper provides technical information to accompany the main paper “Making Public Debt Public: Ongoing Initiatives and Reform Options”. It provides further empirical evidence of benefits of public debt transparency and elaborates on two elements that can be used to enhance it: (i) sound practices in public debt management and (ii) available international data standards and publicly available debt databases.
Keywords:
debt transparency; public debt management; public debt databases; public debt data standards; B. public debt transparency; data standards initiative; IMF team; Sound public debt management practice; public debt transparency; Government debt management; Government finance statistics; Securities; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Annual Update on SDR Trading Operations
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper provides an update on the status of the SDR trading market and operations. For more than three decades, SDRs have exclusively been exchanged for freely usable currencies in transactions by agreement, primarily through the Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs). Since the last annual update, SDR trading has continued to be dominated by SDR sales, although SDR acquisitions have increased significantly. From September 2022 to August 2023, SDR 17.9 billion were sold through the VTA market, of which SDR 8.9 billion were exchanged by 29 participants into currencies and SDR 8.0 billion were sold by the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) for liquidity management and to facilitate the investment of SDR contributions. On the purchase side, the volume and number of transactions increased from the previous year as more participants needed to replenish their SDR holdings to cover charges to the IMF, reflecting the rising SDR interest rate. The VTAs continue to have ample capacities to meet the demand for exchange of SDRs into currencies.
Keywords:
SDR trading capacity; SDR sale; SDR department participant; VTA market; IMF-administered trust; SDR trade; Currencies; Liquidity; Trading arrangements; Freely usable currencies; Middle East and Central Asia