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International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
On November 15, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy and approved a number of reforms. As an international institution, making important documents available to the public on timely basis enhances the IMF’s credibility, accountability, and effectiveness and is critical to fulfill its mandate of promoting global economic and financial stability. While transparency at the IMF is achieved through a range of policies and practices, the Transparency Policy and the Open Archives Policy form the core elements of the IMF’s transparency framework. The Fund has come a long way since the inception of these policies in the early nineties. Most Board documents are now published, published more quickly, and under more consistent and evenhanded application of modification rules. The information available in the Fund’s archives has increased and is more easily accessible to the public. While experience suggests that these policies are effective in delivering on their objectives, the landscape in which the Fund operates has evolved since these policies were last reviewed in 2013. In a more interconnected and shock-prone world the pace with which policymakers need to make decisions has accelerated and the expectations of stakeholders on the availability and timeliness of the Fund’s analysis and policy advice has grown. Against this backdrop, the 2024 Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy focuses on targeted reforms to (i) support faster publication of board documents and communications of Board’s decisions; (ii) strengthen the rules and processes to modify Board documents prior to publication; and (iii) allow faster release of some documents in the Fund’s archives accessible to the public. The reforms further clarify the scope and objectives of these policies, their implementation processes, and how to strengthen knowledge sharing. The review was supported by data analysis as well as surveys and consultations with key stakeholders, including Executive Directors, country authorities, IMF missions chiefs, and civil society organizations as detailed in the three background papers accompanying this 2024 review.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper assesses the drivers of inflation in Brunei Darussalam. Inflation in Brunei has been on the downward trend since September 2022 being the first to hit disinflationary territory post-coronavirus disease amongst its regional peers. This appendix seeks to analyze the drivers of inflation in Brunei by employing an augmented Phillips curve model of inflation with global variables. By examining demand-side and supply-side factors, this paper aims to understand the relative importance of different inflation causes and their implications for economic policy. The estimation reveals that rather sudden decline in Brunei over the recent quarters is driven by supply factors, more specifically global supply chain developments in addition to moderate impacts by demands side factors. This motivates to keep conservative near term inflation outlook at 1.3 percent for 2024 as the global supply chain disruption is prone to substantial uncertainty and always evolving.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brunei faces complex diversification challenges while it continues to contend with a protracted recovery since the pandemic. Real gross domestic product has rebounded moderately, driven mainly by the non-oil and gas (O&G) sector and earlier than expected supply from a new O&G field in Q4 2023. The recovery is expected to continue, with growth strengthening in 2024 given the increase in O&G production, including from new fields. Inflation is projected to remain unchanged, and fiscal and external balances are expected to stabilize alongside O&G prices. The report recommends maintaining a prudent fiscal stance given the narrowing output gap, uncertainty around O&G revenues and long-term decarbonization trends. Brunei’s currency board has served it well: continuing to align policy rates with the Monetary Authority of Singapore is recommended. It is also recommended to closely monitor credit growth and ensure that the foreign loans continue to be invested in high credit-rated assets, to help to mitigate credit risk.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper discusses the potential role of carbon pricing for climate mitigation and revenue diversification strategy in Brunei Darussalam. Carbon pricing schemes are gaining momentum worldwide, including in Asia. The paper provides guidance on the choice between carbon taxes and emissions trading systems and their design. The paper compares the impact of several mitigation policies modelled for illustration in Brunei Darussalam. All policies reduce carbon dioxide emissions below baseline levels by 10-50 percent by 2030, with most of the reductions coming from the power generation and industry sectors. The policies also raise revenues equivalent to 1.6–7.2 percent of gross domestic product above the baseline in 2030. The policy yielding the most of emissions reduction and the most revenues is the combination policy of a carbon tax reaching $50 per tonne by 2030 and the fuel subsidies phase-out. The policy yielding smallest emissions reduction and revenues is feebates.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Brunei has begun to recover from the pandemic, with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions lifted and borders reopened in 2022. Brunei’s high vaccination rates have allowed for the removal of COVID-19 restrictions and reopening of borders; however, reduced oil and gas (O&G) production have undermined the recovery. The financial sector remains liquid and well capitalized. High fuel prices helped strengthen the fiscal and external positions in 2022. Inflation hit a historical high but has recently declined. The government is committed to diversifying toward a low-carbon economy. Growth in 2023 would remain negative due to extended O&G infrastructure maintenance, while non-oil sectors will contribute positively to growth, aiding diversification. Inflation is anticipated to moderate further. The overall fiscal and external positions are projected to weaken in 2023 and the medium term. Prioritize human capital development and digitalization, and strengthen the regulatory framework for public private partnership. Consider more extensive participation in regional trade and economic partnerships.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
After successfully weathering the pandemic in 2020, Brunei was hit by new waves of COVID-19, with case numbers going up significantly and new lockdown measures imposed in H2 2021. Reduced activities in mining and LNG manufacturing, combined with the negative impact of new pandemic variants on domestic services, led to a slowdown in the economy. Real GDP contracted by 1.6 percent in 2021. For 2022, growth is projected to rebound to 1.2 percent, on the back of easing of mobility constraints and a positive terms of trade shock due to surges in O&G prices. Inflation, while remaining relatively low at 2.2 percent at end 2021, has increased in 2022 and pressures are expected to remain elevated in the short term, owing to supply disruptions and higher food and fuel prices. The economy continues to diversify, with double-digit growth of the food/agriculture sector and a new fertilizer sector commencing production. The risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, due to potential new COVID-19 variants, increased global uncertainty associated with an escalation of the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening from the US and a larger-than-expected growth slowdown in China. On the upside, higher energy prices would further improve the terms of trade and restore fiscal positions in the short term, while partially contributing to build the buffers needed to ensure stronger intergenerational equity. Strong policy actions are needed to boost medium-term growth and foster resilience.