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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Extreme Weather Events, Agricultural Output, and Insurance: Evidence from South America
Juliette Caucheteux
,
Jonas Nauerz
, and
Svetlana Vtyurina
Extreme weather has profoundly affected countries across South America (SA), given the importance of the agricultural sector for the economies. However, these effects have not yet been properly measured. In our study, we construct a unique dataset of high-frequency satellite data on temperature, precipitation, and a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) that proxies the agricultural yield in selected countries. In particular, we then examine the effect of droughts on agricultural yields (soy output) and find that they have a significant negative impact and that there is heterogeneity in the response across countries. While insurance could help protect farmers against severe losses, coverage in the region is low, and barriers remain high. Building on existing literature and using a calibrated structural model, we highlight the benefits of insurance for Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and offer some recommendations for its expansion.
Keywords:
Agriculture; Productivity; NDVI; SPEI; Weather; Drought; Insurance; South America; weather event; soy output; loss from drought; benefits of insurance; NDVI in Brazil; Natural disasters; Agricultural sector; Agricultural production; Insurance companies; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms Through a Supply-side Framework: The Case of Argentina
Ms. Lusine Lusinyan
The paper uses a supply-side framework based on a production function approach to assess the role of structural reforms in boosting long-term GDP growth in Argentina. The impact of product, labor, trade, and tax reforms on each supply-side channel—capital accumulation, labor utilization, and total factor productivity, proxied with an efficiency estimate—is assessed separately and then combined to derive the total impact on growth. The largest effect of structural reforms, involving regulatory changes that promote competition and facilitate flexible forms of employment, comes through the productivity/efficiency channel. Pro-competition regulation also improves labor utilization, while lower entry barriers and trade tariffs are important for capital accumulation. Structural reforms could have substantial effects on Argentina’s long-term GDP growth; for example, an ambitious reform effort to improve business regulatory environment would add 1–1½ percent to average annual growth of GDP.
Keywords:
WP; product market; Argentina; employment; product market reform; Economic growth; structural reforms; productivity; product market competition; labor market reforms; trade openness; employment rate; technical efficiency; labor market indicator; trade tariff; Total factor productivity; Commodity markets; Capital productivity; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?
Zidong An
,
João Tovar Jalles
, and
Mr. Prakash Loungani
We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus’ (1987) view that behavioral factors—the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news—play a role in the evolution of forecasts.
Keywords:
WP; recession; recession year; bias; efficiency; information rigidity; forecast comparison; forecasted recession; IMF World Economic Outlook; comparing recession; recession episode; Production growth; Rational expectations; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring External Risks for Peru: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy
Mr. Fei Han
This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China’s investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconomic model for a small open and partially dollarized economy is developed and estimated for Peru to measure the risk spillovers, and simulate domestic macroeconomic responses in different scenarios with these two external risks. The simulation results suggest that Peru’s output is vulnerable to both risks, particularly the U.S. monetary policy tightening. Simulations also highlight the importance of higher exchange rate flexiblity and a lower degree of dollarization, which could help mitigate the negative spillover effects of these external risks.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; exchange rate; monetary policy; Macroeconomic Model; Partial Dollarization; External Risk; Spillovers; Macroeconomic Forecast; China scenario; investment slowdown; copper export; U.S. dollar; Peru's output gap; mineral imports; federal funds rate; terms-of-trade gap; macroeconomic response; World metal price inflation; Output gap; Exchange rates; Exchange rate flexibility; Inflation; Metal prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: 2011 Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This 2011 Article IV Consultation—Selected Issues paper focuses on estimating potential output and the output gap and spillovers from agriculture in the case of Uruguay. It introduces additional economic information and theory to estimate potential output, shedding some light on the discussion of current monetary and fiscal policies. The objective is to take advantage of economic data to disentangle the most recent economic performance by introducing multivariate techniques. The paper also presents an overview of the labor market and pension system of Uruguay.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Uruguay; dollarization level; pension system; debt dollarization; employment flexibility; Philips curve; wage indexation; Potential output; Output gap; Wages; Dollarization; Real wages; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Costly Are Debt Crises?
Davide Furceri
and
Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka
The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after eight years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets.
Keywords:
WP; debt crisis; crisis episode; debt; output losses; debt crises; sovereign defaults; output growth; bond debt default; banking sector crisis; crisis output; debt crisis output; debt-currency-banking crisis; occurrence of a debt crisis; currency crises episode; debt crises t; identification of debt crisis episode; debt t; onset of a debt crisis; Debt default; Currency crises; Production growth; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles
Miss Zhanwei Z. Yue
and
Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza
Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments.
Keywords:
WP; debt ratio; working capital; Sovereign default; business cycles; country risk; external debt; default event; default frequency; default probability; credit market; transmission mechanism; result default; default incentive; country default; sensitivity analysis; utility function; default punishment; Total factor productivity; Labor supply; Debt default; Eastern Europe; Western Hemisphere; Western Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
After five years of Paraguay’s high growth led, in part by agro-exporting sectors, the external environment has turned less favorable, with a sharp decline of export prices and a curtailment of external credit lines. The Selected Issues paper for Paraguay discusses economic development and policies. Over the same period, inflation remained above 5 percent, but hovered around 10 percent in the last two years, fed in part by supply shocks but possibly also by an overheating of the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; bank behavior; monetary policy rule; primary sector; bank fundamentals; excess output gap; Credit; Banking crises; Output gap; Inflation; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2007, Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2007, Western Hemisphere
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The past year has been one of strong economic performance for the Western Hemisphere, notwithstanding somewhat slower growth in the United States in recent quarters. Can this performance be sustained, and what challenges does the region face? Reviewing macroeconomic prospects and risks, this report pays particular attention to the influence of the external environment on Latin America, and addresses the question of whether Latin America has now succeeded in breaking with its history of periodic growth reversals.

Keywords:
REO; IMF staff calculation; world growth shock; price; variable; standard deviation commodity shock; nonfuel commodity price; impulse response function; high-productivity scenario; Commodity prices; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Housing prices; Global; Central America; Caribbean; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sustaining Latin America's Resurgence: Some Historical Perspectives
Mr. Anoop Singh
and
Mr. Martin D. Cerisola
This paper looks at the historical lessons that might serve to entrech Latin America's newly resurgent growth phase. It briefly reviews the post-World War II experiences in Latin America and Asia, focusing on the conditions that favored capital accumulation and productivity growth in the faster growing economies. Among these, the paper highlights the importance of stable macroeconomic policies, especially fiscal policy.
Keywords:
WP; foreign direct investment; country authorities; central bank; inflation targeting; private sector; Macroeconomic Policy; Policy Design and Consistency; Economic Growth; Open Economies; reforming country; per capita income; country risk; fiscal policy volatility; physical capital; Latin American country; exchange rate regime; government intervention; Chile's policy framework; a number of country; competitive price; Exchange rate arrangements; Productivity; Capital accumulation; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Global