Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Western Hemisphere > Argentina

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 16 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Economic and financial statistics x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach
Tsendsuren Batsuuri
,
Shan He
,
Ruofei Hu
,
Jonathan Leslie
, and
Flora Lutz
This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model robustness with regard to different feature sets and time periods. ML models consistently outperform traditional methods in out-of-sample prediction of new IMF-supported arrangements with key predictors that align well with the literature and show consensus across different algorithms. The analysis underscores the importance of incorporating a variety of external, fiscal, real, and financial features as well as institutional factors like membership in regional financing arrangements. The findings also highlight the varying influence of data processing choices such as feature selection, sampling techniques, and missing data imputation on the performance of different ML models and therefore indicate the usefulness of a flexible, algorithm-tailored approach. Additionally, the results reveal that models that are most effective in near and medium-term predictions may tend to underperform over the long term, thus illustrating the need for regular updates or more stable – albeit potentially near-term suboptimal – models when frequent updates are impractical.
Keywords:
Early warning systems; IMF Lending; Machine Learning; IMF arrangement; ML model; machine learning approach; state-of-the-art machine learning; machine learning model; Emergency assistance; Data processing; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Safeguards Assessment—2019 Update
Mr. George M Kabwe
,
Elie Chamoun
,
Riaan van Greuning
,
Mowele Mohlala
, and
Ms. Julia Cardoso
Safeguards assessments are a key pillar of the risk management arrangements for IMF lending. Safeguards assessments aim to mitigate the risks of misuse of Fund resources and misreporting of program monetary data under Fund arrangements. Safeguards assessment reports are confidential and therefore the IMF Executive Board is provided with a periodic report on safeguards activities on a biennial basis, in addition to high-level summaries in member country staff reports on key findings and recommendations. This update on safeguards activity covers the period May 2017 to end-April 2019 (the period).
Keywords:
PP; central bank; governance; audit; risk management framework; lending; governance arrangement; central bank participant; central bank autonomy provision; central bank safeguards framework; central bank authority; Internal audit; Central bank governance; External audit; Auditing; Monetary statistics; Global; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; West Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Technical Assistance Report-Report of the Technical Assistance Mission on External Sector Statistics (April 17–28, 2017)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the National Statistics and Census Institute (INDEC), a technical assistance mission on external sector statistics (ESS) visited Buenos Aires during April 17–28, 2017. This was a follow up to the November 2016 mission that evaluated the ESS methodology, information sources, and dissemination policy and made recommendations to improve quality, adapt the production of ESS to the methodology provided by the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition (BPM6), and support the quarterly compilation and dissemination of the International Investment Position (IIP) in accordance with the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS). The mission reviewed the implementation status of the tasks identified in the action plan prepared by the November 2016 mission; assisted compilers in preparing quarterly ESS in accordance with BPM6 guidelines for the next quarterly publication; and provided practical advice on the methodology to be used.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BCRA; DNCI; BPM6; mission; current account; debt survey; IIP quarterly; balance of payments goods account; dissemination policy; BCRA chart; DNCI staff; External sector statistics; Foreign assets; International investment position; Private debt
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Technical Assistance Report-Technical Assistance Mission on External Sector Statistics (November 14-25, 2016)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), a technical-assistance mission on external-sector statistics (ESS) visited Buenos Aires on November 14–25, 2016. Currently, INDEC’s National Directorate for International Accounts (DNCI) compiles and disseminates ESS following the guidelines of the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual. The mission reviewed the ESS methodology, data sources, and dissemination policy in order to help enhance its quality and to assist compilers in migrating the methodology to the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The main data sources used to compile the current account and the capital account (excluding investment income, which is compiled along with the financial account and the IIP) are customs records, corporate surveys, the international-tourism survey, accounting information available to the public, administrative records, and information concerning the exchange balance disseminated by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). The mission found data sources and compilation procedures to be sound. Although the mission identified improvements that could add to the quality of certain estimates, the balances of the current and capital accounts are expected to remain substantially unchanged.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BCRA; investment; DNCI; corporation; enterprise; service-corporation survey; investment enterprise; land passenger-transport corporation; BCRA staff; exchange balance; aggregate data; Business enterprises; External sector statistics; Foreign assets; Foreign direct investment; International investment position
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Thirty-Eighth Issue
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Thirty-Eighth Issue
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Abstract

This volume documents decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund, as well as documents relating to the United Nations and other international organizations.

Keywords:
SELD; holding; capital transfer; usable currency; use of fund's resource; Japanese yen; signature authority decision; Currencies; Credit; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Loans; Multiple currency practices; Global; West Africa; Africa; Institutional View on capital flows
Cover Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF
Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF
An IEO Evaluation
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This report examines whether the IMF has effectively leveraged an important asset: data. It finds that in general, the IMF has been able to rely on a large amount of data of acceptable quality, and that data provision from member countries has improved markedly over time. Nonetheless, problems with data or data practices have, at times, adversely affected the IMF’s surveillance and lending activities. The roots of data problems are diverse, ranging from problems due to member countries’ capacity constraints or reluctance to share sensitive data to internal issues such as lack of appropriate staff incentives, institutional rigidities, and long-standing work practices. Efforts to tackle these problems are piecemeal, the report finds, without a clear comprehensive strategy that recognizes data as an institutional strategic asset, not just a consumption good for economists. The report makes a number of recommendations that could promote greater progress in this regard.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; data; data management; evaluation; data practice; IMF data provision; model data management guideline; data management framework; data deficiency; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Data dissemination; Financial statistics; Financial statements; Global; data challenge; data management initiative; evaluation team; IMF document; Data collection
Cover IMF Working Papers
Systemic Risks in Global Banking: What Available Data Can Tell Us and What More Data Are Needed?
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
,
Mr. Patrick M. McGuire
, and
Mr. Stijn Claessens
The recent financial crisis has shown how interconnected the financial world has become. Shocks in one location or asset class can have a sizable impact on the stability of institutions and markets around the world. But systemic risk analysis is severely hampered by the lack of consistent data that capture the international dimensions of finance. While currently available data can be used more effectively, supervisors and other agencies need more and better data to construct even rudimentary measures of risks in the international financial system. Similarly, market participants need better information on aggregate positions and linkages to appropriately monitor and price risks. Ongoing initiatives that will help in closing data gaps include the G20 Data Gaps Initiative, which recommends the collection of consistent bank-level data for joint analyses and enhancements to existing sets of aggregate statistics, and the enhancement to the BIS international banking statistics.
Keywords:
WP; bank; asset; balance sheet; exposure; bank data; contagion scenario module; data cover bank; Systemic risks; banking system; international; contagion; vulnerabilities; parent bank; BIS data; bank nationality level; dollar funding; exposure data; bank sector; bank asset; reporting bank; counterparty bank; CBS track bank; Foreign currency exposure; Foreign banks; Commercial banks; Financial statistics; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies
Mr. Philip Liu
,
Rafael Romeu
, and
Mr. Troy D Matheson
Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates "nowcasts" and forecasts of real GDP growth using five alternative models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate that the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.
Keywords:
WP
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module
International Monetary Fund
The country lacks an integrated statistical framework that would take account of the various analytical and accounting linkages across macroeconomic statistics, and the relationships between regulatory tools, intermediate objectives, and policy goals. There is significant room to improve the methodological soundness, accuracy, and reliability of the statistics, for instance, by expanding the data sources for most sectors, as well as by strengthening data validation and statistical techniques for most datasets. Paraguay should improve the access to official statistics and metadata.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bullet; short term; balance of payments; CBP website; asses CPI data source; IIP data; hard copy; Government finance statistics; Consumer price indexes; Balance of payments statistics; Producer price indexes; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Does Sdds Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies
Mr. John Cady
Does macroeconomic data transparency-as signaled by subscription to the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS)-help reduce borrowing costs in private capital markets? This question is examined using detailed data on new issues of sovereign foreign currency-denominated (U.S. dollar, yen, and euro) bonds for several emerging market economies. Panel econometric estimates indicate that spreads on new bond issues declined by about 75 basis points following SDDS subscription.
Keywords:
WP; SDDS subscription; yield; borrowing cost; SDDS discount; secondary market; Sovereign debt and yield spreads; international capital markets; standards and codes; data transparency; SDDS; SDDS coefficient estimate; emerging market yields spread; sovereign bond bond issue; SDDS data category; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Emerging and frontier financial markets; Bonds; Securities markets; Global