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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Research Perspectives
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2021
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2021
Keywords:
IMF research perspective; government spending multiplier; R&D effort; IMF CSF; central bank financing; COVID-19; Bank credit; Fiscal stance; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
COVID-19 in Latin America: A High Toll on Lives and Livelihoods
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
and
Carlos Goncalves
Latin America was hit hard by Covid-19, both in terms of lives and livelihoods. Early lockdowns in the second quarter of 2020 prevented an explosion of deaths at the time but did not stop the pandemic from later wreaking havoc in the region. This paper investigates the dynamics of pandemics in Latin America and how it differed from elsewhere. We probe the role of non-pharmaceutical interventions; the effectiveness (or lack of thereof) lock-downs in Latin America; which structural factors contributed to the high death toll in Latin America, and the extent to which the epidemic harmed the economy. Finally, we briefly analyze the roots of the second-waves that started in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Keywords:
later lockdown; dynamics of Covid-19 epidemic; lock-downs in Latin America; modeling lockdown type; lockdowns in Latin America; COVID-19; South America; Caribbean; Europe; Western Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
A Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending: Background Papers
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
, and
Review Department
This Supplement presents an account of the extensive consultations and the results of various analyses that supported the development of “A Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending.”
Keywords:
PP; spending; staff report; staff; IMF staff calculation; spending issue; social spending; IMF program; Health care spending; Education spending; Personal income; Total expenditures; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographic Changes in Latin America: The Good, the Bad and …
Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea
,
Marco A Espinosa-Vega
, and
Diego Wachs
The paper develops a simple, integrated methodology to project public pension cash flows and healthcare spending over the long term. We illustrate its features by applying it to the LAC5 (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico), where public spending pressures are expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to demographic trends and rising healthcare costs. We simulate alternative pension reforms, including the transition from a defined benefit to a defined contribution pension system and the fiscal burden of a minimum guaranteed pension under the latter. We also analyze public healthcare outlays in the LAC5, which is likewise expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to aging and the so-called excess cost growth factor of healthcare services, showing that curbing the evolution of the latter (e.g., through enhanced competition in the healthcare sector) could aid in containing spending pressures. Despite its simplicity, the methodology yields projections that compare well with other approaches. It therefore provides a good benchmark for assessing alternative reform scenarios, particularly in data-constrained countries.
Keywords:
WP; inflation rate; defined contribution; DC system; replacement rate; DB system; pension system; public pension spending; public healthcare spending; aging; pension system reforms; contribution rate; cash flow; Pension spending; Pensions; Retirement; Western Hemisphere
Cover Paraguay
Paraguay
Corruption, Reform, and the Financial System
Mr. Jeffrey R. Franks
,
Miss Randa Sab
,
Ms. Valerie A Mercer-Blackman
, and
Roberto Benelli

Abstract

Following some historical background, this paper describes how corruption is manifested in Paraguay. The paper distinguishes between factors that explain the growth performance of Paraguay since 1960 (where corruption does not directly enter as a significant factor) and factors that explain the relative level of income of Paraguay in the past 40 or 50 years compared with other countries. It then illustrates how Paraguay's weak institutions may have led to long-term growth below its potential. Finally, the authors briefly consider how Paraguay could improve its institutions. To the extent that prudent policies and the willingness to consider the adoption of international best practices will exert pressure for change in Paraguay, a gradual improvement of institutional quality will ensue, which is necessary for sustained long-run growth.

Keywords:
ISI; SI; exchange rate; real exchange rate; terms of trade; Chaco War pension; survivor pension; wage inflation; pension recipient; Pensions; Real exchange rates; Pension spending; Wages; Retirement; Sub-Saharan Africa; South America; Africa; East Asia; Caribbean; retirement age; government effectiveness; Real effective exchange rates
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Disappearing Openness-Inflation Relationship: A Cross-Country Analysis of Inflation Rates
Mr. M. F. Bleaney
The robust negative correlation between openness and inflation found in cross-country data for the 1970s and 1980s has disappeared in the 1990s. There is now a strong negative correlation of inflation with per capita GDP, as higher-income countries have achieved significant disinflation not emulated by lower-income countries. Since 1973, the most consistent finding is that floating exchange rate regimes are associated with inflation rates at least 10 percent a year higher than pegged exchange rate regimes, after allowing for other factors. There is also a consistent positive correlation between land area and inflation.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; regime score; GDP; inflation rate; inflation; openness; openness coefficient; openness-inflation correlation; regime regression; inflation aversion parameter; dependent variable; rate of inflation; Exchange rate arrangements; Floating exchange rates; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Restraint, Demographic Change, and Social Services in Israel, 1985-1987, and Application of the Methodology to Latin America
International Monetary Fund
The paper analyzes the development of government social expenditure during the economic stabilization period, with specific reference to the changing needs for such expenditure arising from the change in Israel’s demographic structure. The results reveal a real cut in direct services. The implicit strategy applied a mere restraint, for some two to three years, with real erosion in services arising from the growth in the size of beneficiary groups. This strategy proved attainable, even though it took more time than an alternative shock-like strategy that would have had little, if any, chance of being implemented. A partial application to six Latin American countries shows that even though the increase of the elderly dependency ratio is more than offset by the declining child-dependency ratio, there will be an overall increase in dependency-related expenditure.
Keywords:
WP; national expenditure; health expenditure requirement; fiscal policy; government expenditure; simulation model; social expenditure; expenditure figure; Aging; Total expenditures; Caribbean