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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Extreme Weather Events, Agricultural Output, and Insurance: Evidence from South America
Juliette Caucheteux
,
Jonas Nauerz
, and
Svetlana Vtyurina
Extreme weather has profoundly affected countries across South America (SA), given the importance of the agricultural sector for the economies. However, these effects have not yet been properly measured. In our study, we construct a unique dataset of high-frequency satellite data on temperature, precipitation, and a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) that proxies the agricultural yield in selected countries. In particular, we then examine the effect of droughts on agricultural yields (soy output) and find that they have a significant negative impact and that there is heterogeneity in the response across countries. While insurance could help protect farmers against severe losses, coverage in the region is low, and barriers remain high. Building on existing literature and using a calibrated structural model, we highlight the benefits of insurance for Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and offer some recommendations for its expansion.
Keywords:
Agriculture; Productivity; NDVI; SPEI; Weather; Drought; Insurance; South America; weather event; soy output; loss from drought; benefits of insurance; NDVI in Brazil; Natural disasters; Agricultural sector; Agricultural production; Insurance companies; Caribbean
Cover Policy Papers
Progress Report to The IMFC on The Activities of The Independent Evaluation Office Of The IMF
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Since the 2024 Spring Meetings, the IEO finalized the evaluation on The Evolving Application of the IMF’s Mandate and launched a new evaluation on The IMF and Climate Change. The IEO has continued its progress on the ongoing evaluations of The IMF’s Exceptional Access Policy and the IMF Advice on Fiscal Policy. The IEO will develop an Evaluation Policy that addresses the recommendations of the Fourth External Evaluation of the IEO, which was concluded in July 2024.
Keywords:
evaluation Policy; evaluation policy; maintaining high-quality policy advice; IMF's mandate; policy area; Climate change
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Debt Dynamics During the Climate Transition
Daniel Garcia-Macia
,
Waikei R Lam
, and
Anh D. M. Nguyen
Managing the climate transition presents policymakers with a tradeoff between achieving climate goals, fiscal sustainability, and political feasibility, which calls for a fiscal balancing act with the right mix of policies. This paper develops a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model to quantify the fiscal impacts of various climate policy packages aimed at reaching net zero emissions by mid-century. Our simulations show that relying primarily on spending measures to deliver on climate ambitions will be costly, possibly raising debt by 45-50 percent of GDP by 2050. However, a balanced mix of carbon-pricing and spending-based policies can deliver on net zero with a much smaller fiscal cost, limiting the increase in public debt to 10-15 percent of GDP by 2050. Carbon pricing is central not only as an effective tool for emissions reduction but also as a revenue source. Delaying carbon pricing action could increase costs, especially if less effective measures are scaled up to meet climate targets. Technology spillovers can reduce the costs but bottlenecks in green investment could unwind the gains and slow the transition.
Keywords:
Climate change; mitigation; public debt; carbon pricing; subsidies; public investment; industrial policies; dynamic general equilibrium.; technology spillover; investment bottleneck; No. 2024/71; mix of carbon-pricing; adjustment cost parameter; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Climate finance; Climate policy; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Fourth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Achieving the 2023 primary fiscal deficit target of 1.9 percent of gross domestic product remains essential to support disinflation and reserve accumulation, alleviate financing pressures, and strengthen debt sustainability. Timely implementation of high-quality measures, particularly improving the targeting of energy subsidies and social assistance, will help offset lower export taxes due to the drought, protect priority infrastructure and social spending, and secure the fiscal targets. “Real interest rates should remain sufficiently positive to tackle high inflation and support demand for peso assets. On the domestic financing front, prudent efforts will be needed to mitigate near-term rollover risks and mobilize net financing, while limiting the build-up of vulnerabilities and protecting debt sustainability.
Keywords:
waiver of nonobservance; pension moratorium; financing strategy; nonobservance of the performance criteria; step-up interest rate structure; Inflation; Natural disasters; Imports; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Role of State-Contingent Debt Instruments in Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Charles Cohen
,
S. M. Ali Abbas
,
Anthony Myrvin
,
Tom Best
,
Mr. Peter Breuer
,
Hui Miao
,
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
, and
Eriko Togo
The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a series of costly and inefficient sovereign debt restructurings. Any such restructurings will likely take place during a period of great economic uncertainty, which may lead to protracted negotiations between creditors and debtors over recovery values, and potentially even relapses into default post-restructuring. State-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) could play an important role in improving the outcomes of these restructurings.
Keywords:
Sovereign debt restructuring; Pandemic; COVID-19; Global financial crisis; Sovereign debt default; State-contingent debt instruments; GDP-linked debt; natural disasters clauses; debt sustainability; value recovery instruments; natural disaster clauses; reference variable; debt contract; investor preference; GLW payment; VRI payout; sector debt suspension; investor appetite; debt stock; Eurobond investor; trading partner; upside payout; investor participation; Natural disasters; Bonds; Debt restructuring; Securities; Global; Caribbean
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2018
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance and Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; IMF's Asia; government; coin; anti-corruption office
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2018
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This paper discusses that from shifting demographics to climate change, Southeast Asia confronts a host of challenges. Summoning them will require both resilience and flexibility. Advances in artificial intelligence, including robotics, together with innovations such as 3-D printing and new composite materials, will transform manufacturing processes, making them less labor-intensive while creating opportunities for new products. This will enable new ways of making things and change the drivers of competitiveness. There will be indirect effects as well. For example, aircraft manufacturers, taking advantage of new composite materials such as carbon fibers, have developed a class of superlong-haul aircraft that could bring more tourists to Southeast Asia as relatively cheap point-to-point travel options emerge. The region should still enjoy synergies from globalization and other modes of economic integration, but the form and shape of such integration could change. For Southeast Asia, the next couple of decades could prove exhilarating in terms of the opportunities presented by technology and global growth, but also tumultuous because of the continuing risks, such as those posed by an unreformed and unstable international financial architecture. There clearly is much hard work to be done. Policymakers still have not gotten everything right, but they are heading in the right direction.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; IMF's Asia; government; coin; anti-corruption office; shrinking world trade of the Great Depression; policy recommendation; coin design; remittance trap; Gender diversity; Climate change; Women; Southeast Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Mekong
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nicaragua: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Nicaragua’s social security system, which is projected to run out of liquid reserves by 2019, several years earlier than anticipated. To avoid burdening the budget, reforms to the system are urgently needed. A deep actuarial, economic, and operational analysis is needed to design a comprehensive reform program. Such a program must ensure that the defined-benefit, pay-as-you-go system can sustain itself for another generation of workers and that improved health care benefits can be maintained. A politically acceptable, pragmatic solution appears within reach. However, the authorities should act quickly to avoid a costly bailout of the system.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; Nicaragua; free zone; commodity; transfer pricing; CPS deficit; export tax free zones; commodity export; CPS balance; trade shock; commodity TP regulation; Pension spending; Pensions; Climate change; Natural disasters; Global; Caribbean; Central America
Cover Administration des régimes fiscaux des industries extractives
Administration des régimes fiscaux des industries extractives
Manuel
Mr. Jack Calder

Abstract

L’administration des recettes fiscales tirées de ressources naturelles présente des difficultés particulières. Ce manuel est l’un des premiers ouvrages à s’intéresser de près à l’efficacité de l’administration des recettes issues des industries extractives. Il fournit aux décideurs politiques et aux agents des pays en développement et émergents des instructions pratiques pour mettre en place un cadre juridique, une organisation et des procédures solides pour gérer les recettes issues de ces industries. Il aborde le thème de la transparence et de sa promotion face une demande croissante des parties prenantes nationales et internationales pour plus de clarté et de responsabilité dans l’administration des recettes publiques tirées des ressources naturelles. Il approfondit également les solutions pour que les pays en développement parviennent à renforcer leurs capacités techniques et managériales pour mieux administrer ces recettes.

Keywords:
BOOK; natural resource; government; tax authority; natural resource company; Large taxpayer office
Cover Manual sobre administración de regímenes fiscales para industrias extractivas
Manual sobre administración de regímenes fiscales para industrias extractivas
Manual
Mr. Jack Calder

Abstract

Los ingresos derivados de los recursos naturales suelen plantear desafíos singulares para la administración tributaria. Este Manual es uno de los primeros de su tipo que se enfoca en la administración eficaz de los ingresos provenientes de las industrias extractivas. Ofrece a las autoridades y los funcionarios en las economías en desarrollo y de mercados emergentes directrices prácticas para el establecimiento de un marco jurídico robusto, una organización y procedimientos para la gestión de los ingresos de estas industrias. Examina la transparencia y la manera de fomentarla ante las crecientes exigencias de claridad y rendición de cuentas en la administración de los ingresos públicos generados por las industrias extractivas, y analiza la forma en que los países en desarrollo pueden reforzar su capacidad gerencial y técnica para administrar estos ingresos.

Keywords:
BOOK; natural resource; government; tax authority; natural resource company; Large taxpayer office