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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Eight Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Sustaining progress requires improving the quality of fiscal adjustment, taking initial steps toward an enhanced monetary and foreign exchange policy framework, and implementing reforms to unlock growth, formal employment, and investment. Greater focus on micro-level reforms will help support the recovery and boost potential growth. The proposed reforms aimed at improving competitiveness, increasing labor market flexibility, and improving the predictability of the regulatory framework for investment, are steps in the right direction, and their approval and careful implementation should be a priority. Risks, although moderated, are still elevated, requiring agile policymaking. Contingency planning will remain critical, and policies will need to continue to adapt to evolving outcomes to safeguard stability and ensure all program objectives continue to be met.
Keywords:
FX policy; BCRA FX purchase; FX gap; cost recovery; FX access tax; Exchange restrictions; Public sector; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Following the October 2020 election, the new administration moved to tackle the devastating human and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The economy shows signs of recovery from its 8.8 percent contraction in 2020. However, fiscal imbalances have increased and international reserves continue to fall. On February 12, Bolivia repurchased the 240.1 million SDR purchase under the Fund’s Rapid Financing Instrument (that was approved by the Fund’s Executive Board in April 2020).
Keywords:
IMF staff visit; government administration; U.S. dollar; health personnel; import substitution policy; one-off expenditure item; Public sector; Exchange rate flexibility; COVID-19; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uruguay
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Uruguay highlights that the country enjoys political stability, strong governance and institutions, and a high degree of social cohesion. Following a decade and a half of robust growth, the country boasts high per capita income, low levels of poverty and inequality, and a resilient financial sector. More recently, in a context of a volatile region and global uncertainties, challenges have emerged. The political and economic landscapes—with the post-election mandate and a growth boost due to large private and infrastructure investments—present an opportunity to address these challenges and preserve the social compact for future generations. The authorities are expected to use the opportunity to reduce debt and bring inflation toward the mid-point of the target range, to rebuild buffers and manage sizable risks. In addition, the authorities should leverage Uruguay’s institutional advantages to further improve the fiscal and inflation targeting frameworks and implement structural reforms, in order to raise potential growth and safeguard the achievements of the past decade.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; energy matrix; financial asset; deficit; net debt NFPS; sound financial system; Uruguay's authorities; impeccable record; CPS deficit; Public sector; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Fourth Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Applicability and Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Staff Supplement
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Argentina’s Fourth Review of the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for a Waivers of Applicability and Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. The report highlights that with very high inflation and an increase in gross financing needs in coming months, discussions centered on how best to mitigate risks to the program, bolster market confidence, and calibrate monetary policy to continue bringing down inflation. The authorities have revamped their debt management strategy to support higher rollovers and an extension of average maturity of new issuance to the degree permitted by market conditions. The authorities have maintained a cautious approach to expenditure authorization in order to safeguard their program’s fiscal targets. The Argentine authorities’ efforts to increase rollover rates on public debt and to lengthen the maturity of new debt issuance should help mitigate financing risks in the period ahead. Ongoing efforts to improve the functioning of local sovereign debt markets will help improve market liquidity and lower financing costs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; effort; Arkansas; authority; expectation; market expectation; executive board discussion; LELIQ rate; authorities' effort; growth potential; end June; Fiscal stance; Monetary base; Public sector; Currencies; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Third Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Argentina’s Third Review under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Discussions centered on the risks to the fiscal position, how best to counter the rise in inflation and inflation expectations, how best to mitigate debt rollover risks, and what more can be done to mitigate the impact of the economic downturn on the most vulnerable. The paper highlights that the Argentina economy continues to contract, albeit at a modestly slower pace than had been expected under the program. After a brief period of falling monthly inflation, price pressures and inflation expectations are again rising. Financial conditions improved in January, with declining sovereign spreads and a rally in the local equity market, but have since then erased much of those gains, with rising volatility in both currency and interest rates in March. All end-March performance criteria and fiscal targets are expected to be met.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; inflation inertia; authority; debt; expectations rising; BCRA president; inflation outcome; LELIQ rate; Monetary base; Public sector; Fiscal stance; Currencies; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Uruguay
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Article IV Consultation highlights that Uruguay has preserved macroeconomic stability in the wake of the turbulence in the region due to prudent policies and the accumulation of buffers over the years. With the worsening outlook and less friendly external environment, in the near term, policies should focus on maintaining resilience. In this context, additional efforts are needed to put debt on a firm downward trajectory and reduce inflation to within the target band. The IMF staff assesses that the external position is broadly consistent with fundamentals and desirable policy settings. The authorities and IMF staff have remained in broad agreement on the macroeconomic policy objectives, including maintaining public debt on a sustainable trajectory, keeping inflation low, and allowing exchange rate to adjust in line with fundamentals. Fiscal adjustment, however, has not proceeded as quickly as had been originally expected, and inflation has proven difficult to contain within the authorities’ target range.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; center; Uruguay; bank assets; consumer price index; asset; public-sector asset-liability management; Uruguay's case; growth outlook; merchandise export; Uruguay's growth; Uruguay's export; Uruguay's exposure; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Public sector; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Global; annex I.External sector assessment; IMF's transparency policy; I.External sector assessment; inflation expectation; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Second Review under the Stand-By Arrangement; Financing Assurances Review; and Request for Modification of Performance Criterion-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The redesigned IMF-supported economic reform program is bearing early results. Financial markets have stabilized since end-September, following the adoption of the new monetary policy framework. After the appreciation of the currency in October, the peso has floated within the non-intervention zone. Short-term interest rates have fallen back to their end-September level. The passage of the 2019 Budget with broad political support has helped solidify confidence in the authorities’ stabilization plan. As a result, demand for Argentine bonds has strengthened and sovereign risk premia have narrowed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; wage inflation index; LELIQ rate; Base money; executive board discussion; CPI basket; end-December monetary base target; anchor inflation expectation; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Public sector; Monetary base; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: First Review under the Stand-By Arrangement; Inflation Consultation; Financing Assurances Review; and Request for Rephasing, Augmentation, Waivers of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Staff Supplement
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Argentina’s First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), Inflation Consultation, Financing Assurances Review, and Requests for Rephasing, Augmentation, Waivers of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria. All performance criteria and the structural benchmark for end-June were met. The authorities have proactively recognized that restoring stability in Argentina will require a significant reshaping of their policy program and have requested changes in the nature of IMF support under the SBA. The authorities are forcefully strengthening their policy program by eliminating the primary fiscal deficit in 2019 and targeting a primary surplus in 2020. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request to modify the program supported by the SBA.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; y inflation; Center inflation target; Argentina; debt service; inflation expectation; verifiable monetary policy regime; budget support; liquidity position; draft budget; authorities' effort; Fiscal stance; Public sector; Monetary base; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uruguay
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the fiscal adjustment in Uruguay is on track. Fiscal policy has been countercyclical in 2017, with higher income tax receipts partly offset by rising pension and health care costs. The overall deficit is estimated to decline to 3.3 percent of GDP, and the government continues to be able to access international financial markets on favorable terms, including through global nominal-peso bonds. Financial flows have remained volatile, and local and nonresident investor interest in the peso has been strong overall. The current account balance has been improving and is now in surplus, estimated to approach 2 percent of GDP in 2017.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Uruguay; exchange rate; financial asset; consumer price index; policy; banking sector; government finance statistics yearbook; market diversification Uruguay present; Uruguay's insertion; liquid financial assets; Public sector; Inflation; Exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uruguay is demonstrating resilience in the face of recessions in its large neighbors. The economic slowdown has bottomed out in 2016 and there are signs that the economy is on an incipient recovery path. Financial stability risks are limited. Nonperforming loans remain relatively low, at 3.5 percent of total loans, while provisions are high. Real growth is estimated at 1.2 percent in 2016 and projected to reach 1.4 percent in 2017, as the external environment strengthens, together with private consumption.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Uruguay; deficit; inflation inertia; consumer price index; Inter-American Development Bank; hard-won credibility; Uruguay FCPF; executive board assessment; staffs appraisal; public sector deficit; Uruguay public sector institution; Public sector; Inflation; Credit; Fiscal stance; Global