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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Crypto as a Marketplace for Capital Flight
Clemens M. Graf von Luckner
,
Robin Koepke
, and
Silvia Sgherri
This paper shows how cryptocurrency markets can fuel cross-border capital flight by serving as marketplaces that match counterparts with and without (illicit) access to FX. In countries where international transactions are restricted, crypto exchanges effectively allow domestic agents to pay a premium to buy foreign currency. The counterparts to these transactions are agents with access to FX, who sell crypto holdings purchased abroad. A stylized model illustrates that restricted foreign currency amid economic imbalances incentivizes these transactions via persistent crypto premia in local relative to global markets. We analyze relative crypto pricing data in several country case studies, providing empirical support that crypto markets serve as marketplaces for capital flight that already took place, rather than a novel channel for capital flight. We make available a novel dataset on crypto market premia, which we propose as indicators of excess demand for foreign currency and capital control intensity. The dataset will be posted along with this paper and updated periodically.
Keywords:
Capital flows; digital money; capital controls; cryptocurrency market; cross-border capital flight; crypto market; trading illicit capital flight; IMF working paper 24/133; Capital outflows; Currencies; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Primer on Bitcoin Cross-Border Flows: Measurement and Drivers
Eugenio M Cerutti
,
Jiaqian Chen
, and
Martina Hengge
The rapid growth of crypto assets raises important questions about their cross-border usage. To gain a better understanding of cross-border Bitcoin flows, we use raw data covering both on-chain (on the Bitcoin blockchain) and off-chain (outside the Bitcoin blockchain) transactions globally. We provide a detailed description of available methodologies and datasets, and discuss the crucial assumptions behind the quantification of cross-border flows. We then present novel stylized facts about Bitcoin cross-border flows and study their global and domestic drivers. Bitcoin cross-border flows respond differently than capital flows to traditional drivers of capital flows, and differences appear between on-chain and off-chain Bitcoin cross-border flows. Off-chain cross-border flows seem correlated with incentives to avoid capital flow restrictions.
Keywords:
Crypto assets; Bitcoin; Cross-border flows; Capital flows; bitcoin blockchain; capital flow restriction; bitcoin flow; cross-border flow; Bitcoin transaction; Blockchain and DLT; Currencies; Financial activity tax; Global
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
Forty-Third Issue
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Abstract

This volume is the Forty-Third Issue of Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund. It includes decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund, as well as selected documents, to which frequent reference is made in the current activities of the Fund. In addition, it includes certain documents relating to the Fund, the United Nations, and other international organizations.

Keywords:
IMF; UN organization; International Organization; International Finance; Articles and Agreement; capital transfer; usable currency; use of fund's resource; Japanese yen; abrogation of rule; Currencies; Institutional View on capital flows; Loans; Multiple currency practices; Credit; Global; West Africa; Caribbean
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Forty-Second Issue
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Forty-Second Issue
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Abstract

This volume documents decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund, as well as documents relating to the United Nations and other international organizations.

Keywords:
SELD; holding; capital transfer; usable currency; Japanese yen; signature authority decision; Currencies; Credit; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Loans; Multiple currency practices; Global; West Africa; Africa; institutional view on capital flows; use of fund's resource; Poverty reduction strategy; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
On the Benefits of Repaying
Francesca G Caselli
,
Matilde Faralli
,
Paolo Manasse
, and
Ugo Panizza
This paper studies whether countries benefit from servicing their debts during times of widespread sovereign defaults. Colombia is typically regarded as the only large Latin American country that did not default in the 1980s. Using archival research and formal econometric estimates of Colombia's probability of default, we show that in the early 1980s Colombia's fundamentals were not significantly different from those of the Latin American countries that defaulted on their debts. We also document that the different path chosen by Colombia was due to the authorities' belief that maintaining a good reputation in the international capital market would have substantial long-term payoffs. We show that the case of Colombia is more complex than what it is commonly assumed. Although Colombia had to re-profile its debts, high-level political support from the US allowed Colombia do to so outside the standard framework of an IMF program. Our counterfactual analysis shows that in the short to medium run, Colombia benefitted from avoiding an explicit default. Specifically, we find that GDP growth in the 1980s was higher than that of a counterfactual in which Colombia behaved like its neighboring countries. We also test whether Colombia's behavior in the 1980s led to long-term reputational benefits. Using an event study based on a large sudden stop, we find no evidence for such long-lasting reputational gains.
Keywords:
Sovereign Debt; Default; Reputation; probability of default; Colombia's behavior; Colombia's probability; default probability; adjustment program; market access; International capital markets; Debt default; Caribbean; Global
Cover IEO Annual Report 2021
IEO Annual Report 2021
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

IEO Annual Report 2021

Keywords:
IEO Annual Report; IEO work program; IEO evaluation reports; IMF programs; growth optimism; austerity bias; structural conditionality; debt sustainability; fiscal policy; exchange rate policy; IEO evaluation; IMF taxonomy; IMF's capital account work; MIP implementation; exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions; Capital flows; COVID-19; Capital account; Capital flow management; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Forty-First Issue
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Forty-First Issue
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Abstract

This volume is the Forty-First Issue of Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the IMF. It includes decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and the Board of Governors of the IMF, as well as selected documents, to which frequent reference is made in the current activities of the IMF. In addition, it includes certain documents relating to the IMF, the United Nations, and other international organizations. As with other recent issues, the number of decisions in force continues to increase, with the decision format tending to be longer given the use of summings up in lieu of formal decisions. Accordingly, it has become necessary to delete certain decisions that were included in earlier issues, that is, those that only completed or called for reviews of decisions, those that lapsed, and those that were superseded by more recent decisions. Wherever reference is made in these decisions and documents to a provision of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement or Rules and Regulations that has subsequently been renumbered by, or because of, the Second Amendment of the Fund’s Articles of Agreement (effective April 1, 1978), the corresponding provision currently in effect is cited in a footnote.

Keywords:
capital transfer; usable currency; use of fund's resource; Japanese yen; signature authority decision; Currencies; Institutional View on capital flows; Poverty reduction strategy; Loans; Multiple currency practices; Global; West Africa; Caribbean; Africa; Credit
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Fortieth Issue
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Fortieth Issue
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Abstract

This volume is the Fortieth Issue of Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the IMF. It includes decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and the Board of Governors of the IMF, as well as selected documents, to which frequent reference is made in the current activities of the IMF. In addition, it includes certain documents relating to the IMF, the United Nations, and other international organizations. As with other recent issues, the number of decisions in force continues to increase, with the decision format tending to be longer given the use of summings up in lieu of formal decisions. Accordingly, it has become necessary to delete certain decisions that were included in earlier issues, that is, those that only completed or called for reviews of decisions, those that lapsed, and those that were superseded by more recent decisions. Wherever reference is made in these decisions and documents to a provision of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement or Rules and Regulations that has subsequently been renumbered by, or because of, the Second Amendment of the Fund’s Articles of Agreement (effective April 1, 1978), the corresponding provision currently in effect is cited in a footnote.

Keywords:
SELD; fund; holding; capital transfer; usable currency; use of fund's resource; Japanese yen; signature authority decision; Currencies; Credit; Loans; Poverty reduction strategy; International monetary system; Global; West Africa; Caribbean; Institutional View on capital flows; Multiple currency practices
Cover Policy Papers
Review Of The Fund’s Policy On Multiple Currency Practices: Initial Considerations
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
,
Review Department
, and
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper reviews the Fund’s policy on multiple currency practices (MCPs). There remain strong economic and legal reasons to retain a policy on MCPs. The over-arching aim of the review is to make the policy and its application more effective. Based on this review, the paper proposes initial considerations for reforming features of the policy that have created challenges. • Clarifying the concept of “official action” to focus on measures that segment FX markets. • Eliminating potentiality. • Updating the threshold for permissible FX spreads. • Adjusting approval policies. • Reviewing links with capital transactions. • Considering merits of a remedial framework.
Keywords:
PP; article; The Fund; MCP Policy; market; transaction; exchange transaction; exchange restriction; fund member; transaction vis-à-vis; Multiple currency practices; Exchange rates; Exchange restrictions; Currencies; Global; IMF's transparency policy; Middle East; Central Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel
Mr. Tamon Asonuma
,
Mr. Marcos d Chamon
,
Aitor Erce
, and
Akira Sasahara
Sovereign debt restructurings are associated with declines in GDP, investment, bank credit, and capital flows. The transmission channels and associated output and banking sector costs depend on whether the restructuring takes place preemptively, without missing payments to creditors, or whether it takes place after a default has occurred. Post-default restructurings are associated with larger declines in bank credit, an increase in lending interest rates, and a higher likelihood of triggering a banking crisis than pre-emptive restructurings. Our local projection estimates show large declines in GDP, investment, and credit amplified by severe sudden stops and transmitted through a “capital inflow-credit channel”.
Keywords:
WP; net capital; growth rate; banking sector; Sovereign Debt; Sovereign Defaults; Sovereign Debt Restructurings; GDP Growth; Investment; Banking Crisis; Local Projection; debt restructuring; net capital capital inflow; default restructuring; inflows-to-GDP ratio; Debt restructuring; Capital inflows; Sudden stops; Banking crises; Credit; Global