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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Adina Popescu
This paper investigates the global economic spillovers emanating from G20 emerging markets (G20-EMs), with a particular emphasis on the comparative influence of China. Employing a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, we assess the impacts of both demand-side and supply-side shocks across 63 countries, capturing the nuanced dynamics of global economic interactions. Our findings reveal that China's contribution to global economic spillovers significantly overshadows that of other G20-EMs. Specifically, China's domestic shocks have significantly larger and more pervasive spillover effects on global GDP, inflation and commodity prices compared to shocks from other G20-EMs. In contrast, spillovers from other G20-EMs are more regionally contained with modest global impacts. The study underscores China's outsized role in shaping global economic dynamics and the limited capacity of other G20-EMs to mitigate any potential negative implications from China's economic slowdown in the near term.
Keywords:
Emerging Economies; Growth Spillover; Global transmission; GVAR model; outsized role; China's contribution; IMF working paper No. 25/27; domestic shock; Spillovers; Supply shocks; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Oil prices; Global value chains; Global
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Fortieth Issue
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Fortieth Issue
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Abstract

This volume is the Fortieth Issue of Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the IMF. It includes decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and the Board of Governors of the IMF, as well as selected documents, to which frequent reference is made in the current activities of the IMF. In addition, it includes certain documents relating to the IMF, the United Nations, and other international organizations. As with other recent issues, the number of decisions in force continues to increase, with the decision format tending to be longer given the use of summings up in lieu of formal decisions. Accordingly, it has become necessary to delete certain decisions that were included in earlier issues, that is, those that only completed or called for reviews of decisions, those that lapsed, and those that were superseded by more recent decisions. Wherever reference is made in these decisions and documents to a provision of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement or Rules and Regulations that has subsequently been renumbered by, or because of, the Second Amendment of the Fund’s Articles of Agreement (effective April 1, 1978), the corresponding provision currently in effect is cited in a footnote.

Keywords:
SELD; fund; holding; capital transfer; usable currency; use of fund's resource; Japanese yen; signature authority decision; Currencies; Credit; Loans; Poverty reduction strategy; International monetary system; Global; West Africa; Caribbean; Institutional View on capital flows; Multiple currency practices
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2018
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance and Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; IMF's Asia; government; coin; anti-corruption office
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Technical Assistance Report-Technical Assistance Mission on External Sector Statistics (November 14-25, 2016)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), a technical-assistance mission on external-sector statistics (ESS) visited Buenos Aires on November 14–25, 2016. Currently, INDEC’s National Directorate for International Accounts (DNCI) compiles and disseminates ESS following the guidelines of the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual. The mission reviewed the ESS methodology, data sources, and dissemination policy in order to help enhance its quality and to assist compilers in migrating the methodology to the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The main data sources used to compile the current account and the capital account (excluding investment income, which is compiled along with the financial account and the IIP) are customs records, corporate surveys, the international-tourism survey, accounting information available to the public, administrative records, and information concerning the exchange balance disseminated by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). The mission found data sources and compilation procedures to be sound. Although the mission identified improvements that could add to the quality of certain estimates, the balances of the current and capital accounts are expected to remain substantially unchanged.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BCRA; investment; DNCI; corporation; enterprise; service-corporation survey; investment enterprise; land passenger-transport corporation; BCRA staff; exchange balance; aggregate data; Business enterprises; External sector statistics; Foreign assets; Foreign direct investment; International investment position
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2018
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This paper discusses that from shifting demographics to climate change, Southeast Asia confronts a host of challenges. Summoning them will require both resilience and flexibility. Advances in artificial intelligence, including robotics, together with innovations such as 3-D printing and new composite materials, will transform manufacturing processes, making them less labor-intensive while creating opportunities for new products. This will enable new ways of making things and change the drivers of competitiveness. There will be indirect effects as well. For example, aircraft manufacturers, taking advantage of new composite materials such as carbon fibers, have developed a class of superlong-haul aircraft that could bring more tourists to Southeast Asia as relatively cheap point-to-point travel options emerge. The region should still enjoy synergies from globalization and other modes of economic integration, but the form and shape of such integration could change. For Southeast Asia, the next couple of decades could prove exhilarating in terms of the opportunities presented by technology and global growth, but also tumultuous because of the continuing risks, such as those posed by an unreformed and unstable international financial architecture. There clearly is much hard work to be done. Policymakers still have not gotten everything right, but they are heading in the right direction.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; IMF's Asia; government; coin; anti-corruption office; shrinking world trade of the Great Depression; policy recommendation; coin design; remittance trap; Gender diversity; Climate change; Women; Southeast Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Mekong
Cover IMF Working Papers
International Financial Integration and Funding Risks: Bank-Level Evidence from Latin America
Mr. Luis Catão
,
Valeriya Dinger
, and
Daniel Marcel te Kaat
Using a sample of over 700 banks in Latin America, we show that international financial liberalization lowers bank capital ratios and increases the shares of short-term funding. Following liberalization, large banks substitute interbank borrowing for equity and long-term funding, whereas small banks increase the proportions of retail funding in their liabilities, which have been particularly vulnerable to flight-to-quality during periods of financial distress in much of Latin America. We also find evidence that riskier bank funding in the aftermath of financial liberalizations is exacerbated by asymmetric information, which rises on geographical distance and the opacity of balance sheets.
Keywords:
WP; funding structure; liberalization index; financial liberalization; funding ratio; bank control; funding decision; Bank Capital Structure; International Capital Flows; bank funding; funding risk; bank size; Capital account; Financial integration; Bank deposits; Deposit insurance; Global; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Financial Conditions Matter Differently across Latin America
Mr. Luis Brandao Marques
and
Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz
This paper develops comparable financial conditions indices (FCIs) for the six large and most financially-integrated Latin American economies (LA6) by following Korobilis (2013) and Koop and Korobilis (2014). The main findings are as follows. First, the estimated FCIs are influenced by a commodity cycle, a global financial cycle, as well as country-specific episodes of financial distress. Second, by early 2017, financial conditions remained favorable in most LA6 economies relative to historical standards. Third, the impact of financial shocks on economic activity widely varies across LA6 and is otherwise found to be stronger in periods of financial stress. Fourth, exposure to regional financial spillovers also differs across LA6.
Keywords:
WP; financial condition; financial conditions indices; FAVAR; Financial conditions indexes; TVP-FAVAR; financial spillovers; purges FCI variable; FCI shock; unpurged FCIs; TVP-VAR FCI; world commodity price; FCI variability; la República Argentina; Credit; Loans; Spillovers; Global
Cover IEO Annual Report 2013
IEO Annual Report 2013
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) evaluation on International Reserves: IMF Concerns and Country Perspectives was discussed by the Board in December 2012. This evaluation examined the IMF’s analysis of the effect of reserves on the stability of the international monetary system and its advice on reserve adequacy assessments in the context of bilateral surveillance. In the multilateral context, the evaluation acknowledged the IMF’s broader work stream on the international monetary system but noted that this work had not sufficiently informed the analysis and recommendations regarding reserves. The IEO evaluation of The Role of the IMF as Trusted Advisor was discussed by the Board in February 2013. This evaluation found that perceptions of the IMF had improved, but that they varied markedly by region and country type. Recognizing that there will always be an inherent tension between the IMF’s roles as a global watchdog and as a trusted advisor to member country authorities, the evaluation report explored how the IMF could sustain the more positive image it had achieved in the aftermath of the recent global crisis. The evaluation found that among key challenges facing the IMF were improving the value added and relevance of IMF advice and overcoming the perception of a lack of even-handedness.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; evaluation; IMF concern; IEO evaluation; IMF performance; office of budget; discretionary budget; IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings; staff allocation; Fiscal consolidation; International reserves; Balance of payments need; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Caribbean; IEO work program; budget proposal; IEO budget; IMF surveillance; International monetary system; Poverty reduction strategy
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intra-Regional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?
Mr. Sebastian Sosa
and
Gustavo Adler
Shocks stemming from Brazil - the large neighbor in South America - have historically been a source of concern for policy-makers in other countries of the region. This paper studies the importance of Brazil’s influence on its neighboring economies, documenting trade linkages over the last two decades and quantifying spillover effects in a Vector Auto Regression setting. While trade linkages with Brazil are significant for the Southern Cone countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay), they are very weak for others. Consistent with this evidence, econometric results show that, while the Southern Cone economies (especially Mercosur’s members) are vulnerable to output shocks from Brazil, the rest of South America is not. Spillovers can take two different forms: the transmission of Brazil-specific shocks and the amplification of global shocks—through their impact on Brazil’s output. Finally, we also find suggestive evidence that depreciations of Brazil’s currency may not have significant impact on output of its key trading partners.
Keywords:
WP; Brazil; export; output; output shock; amplification effect; vis-à-vis Brazil; real GDP; Brazil's output; Spillovers; Exports; Depreciation; Real exchange rates; Real effective exchange rates; South America; Global; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spatial Spillovers in Emerging Market Spreads
Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba
,
Mr. Emanuele Baldacci
, and
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
We use novel spatial econometrics techniques to explore spillovers in the sovereign bond market for 24 emerging economies during 1995-2010. The paper extends the previous literature focusing on spillover effects from advanced to emerging economies by analyzing transmission of shocks across emerging markets. After controlling for the impact of global factors, we find strong evidence of spillovers from both sovereign spreads and macroeconomic fundamentals in neighboring emerging economies. In addition to the geographical proximity, the channels of spatial transmission include trade and financial linkages. The results of the paper highlight the importance of accounting not only for spillovers from advanced economies to emerging markets, but also across emerging markets when analyzing sovereign spreads.
Keywords:
WP; business cycle; debt; EM; sovereign spreads; emerging market; spillovers; spatial econometrics; Ols estimation; stripped bond; EM fundamentals; GDP ratio; EM sovereign; correlation matrix; estimation result; intra-EM spillover; trade linkage; Spatial models; Inflation; Business cycles; Global