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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF
Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF
An IEO Evaluation
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This report examines whether the IMF has effectively leveraged an important asset: data. It finds that in general, the IMF has been able to rely on a large amount of data of acceptable quality, and that data provision from member countries has improved markedly over time. Nonetheless, problems with data or data practices have, at times, adversely affected the IMF’s surveillance and lending activities. The roots of data problems are diverse, ranging from problems due to member countries’ capacity constraints or reluctance to share sensitive data to internal issues such as lack of appropriate staff incentives, institutional rigidities, and long-standing work practices. Efforts to tackle these problems are piecemeal, the report finds, without a clear comprehensive strategy that recognizes data as an institutional strategic asset, not just a consumption good for economists. The report makes a number of recommendations that could promote greater progress in this regard.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; data; data management; evaluation; data practice; IMF data provision; model data management guideline; data management framework; data deficiency; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Data dissemination; Financial statistics; Financial statements; Global; data challenge; data management initiative; evaluation team; IMF document; Data collection
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: Consulta del Artículo IV correspondiente a 2013-informe del personal; Comunicado de prensa
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
TEMAS PRINCIPALES Contexto: Los fundamentos económicos de Paraguay son sólidos: bajo nivel de endeudamiento, cuantiosas reservas oficiales y desequilibrios fiscales y externos reducidos. El principal desafío por delante consiste en mejorar el desarrollo social y económico, fortaleciendo al mismo tiempo el marco de política macroeconómica para cimentar fundamentos sólidos. Ante estos desafíos, el gobierno que asumió funciones en agosto de 2013 ha propuesto importantes reformas y ha dado un decidido primer paso al promulgar leyes de importancia clave: nuevos impuestos, alianzas público-privadas (APP) y leyes de responsabilidad fiscal. Perspectivas: Las perspectivas de Paraguay para 2014–18 son favorables, con riesgos ampliamente equilibrados pese a una coyuntura externa menos dinámica. La economía seguirá siendo una de las más pujantes de la región, con un crecimiento que para 2016 retornará al nivel potencial de aproximadamente 4,5%, una inflación acorde con la tasa fijada como meta por el banco central y bajos niveles de déficit fiscal y en cuenta corriente. Conforme a estas perspectivas, la orientación de la política económica debería tornarse más restrictiva a corto plazo, tomando como guía la responsabilidad fiscal y un incipiente régimen de metas de inflación a mediano plazo. Cimentar fundamentos económicos sólidos: La Ley de Responsabilidad Fiscal proporciona una base sólida para la sostenibilidad fiscal, pero se necesitan instituciones presupuestarias más firmes para mejorar la calidad del gasto, a la vez que se fortalecen la administración y la capacitad tributaria y aduanera para disipar los riesgos que podrían plantear las APP. Las reformas de la función pública y las pensiones también son necesarias para seguir reforzando el marco fiscal. El banco central ha avanzado bastante en la implementación de un régimen de metas de inflación, junto con la flexibilización del tipo de cambio. La atención debe seguir centrada en medidas para lograr un régimen de metas de inflación cabal y en reforzar la supervisión basada en riesgos conforme a prácticas óptimas internacionales. Crecimiento inclusivo: La reducción de la pobreza dependerá de que se garantice la sostenibilidad a largo plazo de las iniciativas que están en curso y de que se incremente la flexibilidad del mercado laboral para reducir la informalidad, así como de una mejor gestión de las empresas públicas para ampliar el acceso a servicios públicos básicos a un costo razonable.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; inflation targeting; inflation-targeting regime; target rate; exchange rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: 2013 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2013 Article IV consultation highlights the main challenge ahead for Paraguay, which is to improve social and economic development while strengthening the macroeconomic policy framework to cement strong fundamentals. Paraguay’s outlook for 2014–18 is favorable, with broadly balanced risks, despite less buoyant external conditions. The economy is expected to continue to be one of the most dynamic in the region, with growth returning to potential of about 4.5 percent a year by 2016, inflation in line with the central bank’s target rate, and small fiscal and current account deficits. Consistent with this outlook, the policy stance should be tightened in the near term, with policies guided by fiscal responsibility and incipient inflation-targeting frameworks over the medium term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; inflation targeting; inflation-targeting regime; target rate; exchange rate; inflation-targeting framework; foreign currency; current account; U.S. dollar; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); PFM legal and regulatory frameworks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: 2012 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Uruguay’s near-term outlook is positive, but with risks and policy challenges. Medium-term challenges include bolstering the economy’s resilience to shocks and fostering productivity growth. Inflation is a priority and monetary policy cannot fight inflation alone; concerted efforts on other fronts are also necessary. Near-term fiscal policy could better support monetary policy. A long-term policy challenge is to bolster growth prospects and reduce output volatility. The political cycle should be propitious for continued sound policies and progress with reforms.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; inflation expectation; Inter-American Development Bank; consumer price index; center; Tackling inflation; monetary policy space; price shock; currency appreciation; fiscal policy; capital market; output gap; foreign currency; central bank bank paper; financial system; net loan; base period; Inflation; Reserve requirements; Capital inflows; Inflation targeting; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Systemic Risks in Global Banking: What Available Data Can Tell Us and What More Data Are Needed?
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
,
Mr. Patrick M. McGuire
, and
Mr. Stijn Claessens
The recent financial crisis has shown how interconnected the financial world has become. Shocks in one location or asset class can have a sizable impact on the stability of institutions and markets around the world. But systemic risk analysis is severely hampered by the lack of consistent data that capture the international dimensions of finance. While currently available data can be used more effectively, supervisors and other agencies need more and better data to construct even rudimentary measures of risks in the international financial system. Similarly, market participants need better information on aggregate positions and linkages to appropriately monitor and price risks. Ongoing initiatives that will help in closing data gaps include the G20 Data Gaps Initiative, which recommends the collection of consistent bank-level data for joint analyses and enhancements to existing sets of aggregate statistics, and the enhancement to the BIS international banking statistics.
Keywords:
WP; bank; asset; balance sheet; exposure; bank data; contagion scenario module; data cover bank; Systemic risks; banking system; international; contagion; vulnerabilities; parent bank; BIS data; bank nationality level; dollar funding; exposure data; bank sector; bank asset; reporting bank; counterparty bank; CBS track bank; Foreign currency exposure; Foreign banks; Commercial banks; Financial statistics; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: 2009 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Paraguay
International Monetary Fund
This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Paraguayan economy performed very well over the past five years, with real GDP growth averaging about 5 percent a year—the best in a generation. The fiscal position strengthened considerably, thereby reducing public debt sharply to relatively low levels. The economy grew by nearly 6 percent in 2008, but growth decelerated in the last quarter of the year. Paraguay’s macroeconomic outlook has also been negatively affected by the deterioration in the global environment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; monetary policy; foreign exchange; government's response; economy; U.S. dollar; wage bill increase; stimulus plan; IMF staff estimate; economic recovery plan; Commercial banks; Exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module
International Monetary Fund
The country lacks an integrated statistical framework that would take account of the various analytical and accounting linkages across macroeconomic statistics, and the relationships between regulatory tools, intermediate objectives, and policy goals. There is significant room to improve the methodological soundness, accuracy, and reliability of the statistics, for instance, by expanding the data sources for most sectors, as well as by strengthening data validation and statistical techniques for most datasets. Paraguay should improve the access to official statistics and metadata.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bullet; short term; balance of payments; CBP website; asses CPI data source; IIP data; hard copy; Government finance statistics; Consumer price indexes; Balance of payments statistics; Producer price indexes; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
An Empirical Reassessment of the Relationship Between Finance and Growth
Mr. Giovanni Favara
This paper reexamines the empirical relationship between financial development and economic growth. It presents evidence based on cross-section and panel data using an updated dataset, a variety of econometric methods, and two standard measures of financial development: the level of liquid liabilities of the banking system and the amount of credit issued to the private sector by banks and other financial institutions. The paper identifies two sets of findings. First, in contrast with the recent evidence of Levine, Loayza, and Beck (2001), cross-section and panel-data-instrumental-variables regressions reveal that the relationship between financial development and economic growth is, at best, weak. Second, there is evidence of nonlinearities in the data, suggesting that finance matters for growth only at intermediate levels of financial development. Moreover, using a procedure appropriately designed to estimate long-run relationships in a panel with heterogeneous slope coefficients, there is no clear indication that finance spurs economic growth. Instead, for some specifications, the relationship is, puzzlingly, negative.
Keywords:
WP; economic growth; dependent variable; time series; Financial development; panel methods; GMM estimator; PMG estimator; panel estimator; slope coefficient; growth rate; two-step GMM estimator; two-step estimator; system GMM estimator; Financial sector development; Estimation techniques; Financial sector; Financial statistics; Threshold analysis; Africa