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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
An Uneven Recovery
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Amid escalating trade tensions, tighter financial conditions, and volatile commodity markets, economic recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean has both moderated and become more uneven.

Keywords:
REO; economy; IMF staff calculation; commodity; market; nominal GDP; commodity price; monetary policy; economic activity; exchange rate; labor market; system database; central bank; trade tension; Tariffs; Inflation; Imports; Exports; Global; Central America; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere; North America
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
An Uneven Recovery
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Amid escalating trade tensions, tighter financial conditions, and volatile commodity markets, economic recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean has both moderated and become more uneven.

Keywords:
REO; economy; IMF staff calculation; commodity; market; nominal GDP
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Trade and the Dollar
Ms. Emine Boz
,
Ms. Gita Gopinath
, and
Mikkel Plagborg-Møller
We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.
Keywords:
WP; software package; U.S. dollar; exchange rate; Bayesian semiparametrics; bilateral trade; dominant currency; exchange rate pass-through; hierarchical Bayes; panel data; trade elasticity; invoicing share; dollar pass-through; pass-through coefficient; log growth; price pass-through; Exchange rates; Currencies; Exchange rate adjustments; Import prices; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Food Prices and the Multiplier Effect of Trade Policy
Paolo Giordani
,
Nadia Rocha
, and
Michèle Ruta
This paper studies the relationship between trade policy and food prices. We show that, when individuals are loss averse, governments may use trade policy to shield the domestic economy from large food price shocks. This creates a complementarity between the price of food in international markets and trade policy. Specifically, unilateral actions give rise to a "multiplier effect": when a shock drives up the price of food, exporters respond by imposing restrictions while importers wind down protection, thus exacerbating the initial shock and soliciting further trade policy activism. We test the key prediction of the theory with a new dataset that comprises monthly information on trade measures across 77 countries and 33 food products for the period 2008-11, finding evidence of a multiplier effect in food trade policy. These findings contribute to inform the broader debate on the proper regulation of food trade policy within the multilateral trading system.
Keywords:
WP; staple food; Loss aversion; Trade policy; Multiplier effect; Food crisis; food price; price of food; international price; import tariff; reference price; price change; instrument trade policy utilization; aversion term; food price change; trade measure; world price surge; moving average; Food prices; Tariffs; Imports; Exports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies
Mr. Reinout De Bock
Trade flows data show that the composition and cyclical properties of imports are similar in developed economies and emerging markets (EM) but this is not the case for exports. Unlike developed economies, (i) EM export few or only a selective set of capital goods and (ii) capital good and overall exports tend to be acyclical. The lack of procyclicality in exports drives the strong countercyclicality of EM trade balances observed in previous studies. A quantitative exercise demonstrates how the standard small open economy business cycle model can be improved for EM by incorporating these features.
Keywords:
WP
Cover IMF Staff Position Notes
Financial Crises and Emerging Market Trade
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
This chapter discusses various aspects of financial crises and emerging market trade. The current global financial crisis and the sharp reduction in trade flows have raised questions about the extent to which access to capital affects the ability of companies to produce and sell exports and to buy imports. The results presented in this chapter imply that financial conditions play a significant, however, not dominant role in stimulating trade volumes among emerging market countries. Estimates presented in this paper suggest that the combination of zero net private capital flows to emerging markets and a domestic banking crisis could lower import volume growth by between 5 and 6 percent on impact, with a slightly lower effect on export volumes. It is also important to recognize that trade finance is not the only form of credit with implications for trade volumes. Conditions in credit markets more generally, including for working capital and long-term investment financing also have an impact on international trade, including through their impact on industrial production more generally. As such, it is probably sensible for policymakers to support credit flows in general rather than to focus specifically on increasing trade finance.
Keywords:
SPN; import; trade; export; exporter; import deflator; trade finance variable; export deflator; commodity exporter; short-run export price elasticity; Private capital flows; Banking crises; Imports; Exports; Trade finance; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment in Emerging Market Economies
International Monetary Fund
The paper finds that simple econometric specifications yield surprising rich and complex dynamics -- relative prices respond to the nominal exchange rate and pass-through effects, import and export volumes respond to relative price changes, and the trade balance responds to changes in import and export values.
Keywords:
PP; foreign currency; consumer price index; trade surplus; U.S. dollar; export price deflator; price elasticity; commodity exporter; import price; PPP terms; export volume; export deflator; Trade balance; Exchange rates; Exports; Depreciation; Currencies; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade Finance and Trade Flows: Panel Data Evidence From 10 Crises
Mr. Márcio Valério Ronci
This paper assesses the effect of constrained trade finance on trade flows in countries undergoing financial and balance of payments crises. Most of the countries that had a major crisis had a significant trade contraction, while trade-related finance declined sharply. However, trade may also be affected by other variables such as world demand, domestic demand, banking crises, changes in export and import prices, and real exchange rate depreciation. To estimate the effect of constrained trade finance on trade flows, we estimate import and export volume equations including explicitly trade financing as an explanatory variable in addition to the usual variables such as relative prices and income. We conclude that constrained trade finance is a factor in explaining both export and import volumes in the short-run. A fall in external trade finance explains a relatively small part of the trade loss during crises, while a fall in trade financing in connection with domestic banking crisis can lead to a substantial loss of trade.
Keywords:
WP; trade; financing; trade financing; import; Trade flows; trade finance; crisis; world trade volume index; trade indicator; import volume equation; constrained trade finance; trade contraction; processing trade; trade volume-to-trade finance elasticity; Exports; Imports; Trade balance; Banking crises; Global
Cover Changing Customs
Changing Customs
Challenges and Strategies for the Reform of Customs Administration
Mr. Michael Keen

Abstract

This paper, based on the considerable practical experience of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, sets out a successful strategy for modernizing customs administration. The essence is to establish transparent and simple rules and procedures, and to foster voluntary compliance by building a system of self-assessment supported by well-designed audit policies. Having set out this strategy--and its benefits--the paper discusses in depth what is required in terms of trade policy, valuation procedures, dealing with duty reliefs and exemptions, controlling transit movements, organizational reform, use of new technologies, private sector involvement, and designing incentive systems for an effective customs administration.

Keywords:
ISI; SI; customs; administration; goods; Customs administration; customs collector; customs revenue; customs control; psi company; Customs administration core functions; Tariffs; Imports; Administration in revenue administration; Duties; West Africa; Africa; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Valuation; origin and classification; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Disappearing Openness-Inflation Relationship: A Cross-Country Analysis of Inflation Rates
Mr. M. F. Bleaney
The robust negative correlation between openness and inflation found in cross-country data for the 1970s and 1980s has disappeared in the 1990s. There is now a strong negative correlation of inflation with per capita GDP, as higher-income countries have achieved significant disinflation not emulated by lower-income countries. Since 1973, the most consistent finding is that floating exchange rate regimes are associated with inflation rates at least 10 percent a year higher than pegged exchange rate regimes, after allowing for other factors. There is also a consistent positive correlation between land area and inflation.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; regime score; GDP; inflation rate; inflation; openness; openness coefficient; openness-inflation correlation; regime regression; inflation aversion parameter; dependent variable; rate of inflation; Exchange rate arrangements; Floating exchange rates; Imports; Global