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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Commodity Terms of Trade: A New Database
Bertrand Gruss
and
Suhaib Kebhaj
This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.
Keywords:
WP; commodity terms of trade; terms-of-trade index; commodity price indices; trade flow; terms of trade; commodity prices; commodity export; commodity terms-of-trade indices; trade data; Commodity price indexes; Exports; Trade balance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nicaragua: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Nicaragua’s social security system, which is projected to run out of liquid reserves by 2019, several years earlier than anticipated. To avoid burdening the budget, reforms to the system are urgently needed. A deep actuarial, economic, and operational analysis is needed to design a comprehensive reform program. Such a program must ensure that the defined-benefit, pay-as-you-go system can sustain itself for another generation of workers and that improved health care benefits can be maintained. A politically acceptable, pragmatic solution appears within reach. However, the authorities should act quickly to avoid a costly bailout of the system.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; Nicaragua; free zone; commodity; transfer pricing; CPS deficit; export tax free zones; commodity export; CPS balance; trade shock; commodity TP regulation; Pension spending; Pensions; Climate change; Natural disasters; Global; Caribbean; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroeconomic Responses to Terms-of-Trade Shocks: A Framework for Policy Analysis for the Argentine Economy
Pelin Berkmen
This paper presents a version of the global integrated monetary fiscal (GIMF) model adapted and calibrated to the Argentine economy. The model replicates the effect of the strong improvement in Argentina's terms of trade stemming from higher world commodity prices as well as other key economic trends in Argentina during the period 2003-2007. The model can be used to assess the potential impact of different combinations of monetary and fiscal policies on output, inflation, and the external trade.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; interest rate; open economy
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Positions in Latin America: Have They Really Improved?
Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
and
Ivanna Vladkova Hollar
Fiscal performance in Latin America looks much improved this decade compared to the 1980s or 1990s. Is this a "structural" improvement or likely to be transitory? This paper answers this question by estimating the relationship between non-commodity revenue and the economic cycle, and evaluating commodity revenues using alternative medium term commodity price projections. The main result is that structural revenues have indeed improved as a share of GDP, and structural primary balances are currently in surplus in many Latin American countries. However, the magnitude of these improvements is uncertain, in part due to uncertainty about the commodity price outlook.
Keywords:
WP; commodity revenue; output gap
Cover The Global Effects of Fund-Supported Adjustment Programs
The Global Effects of Fund-Supported Adjustment Programs
Mr. Morris Goldstein

Abstract

This is the second of a group of papers dealing with various aspects of Fund-supported adjustment Programs.

Keywords:
OP; country; program; Fund; Fund program; developing country; program effect; program-country group; oil developing countries; adjustment program; Exports; Imports; Exchange rate adjustments; Exchange rates; Global; Western Hemisphere; Africa