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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

You are looking at 1 - 6 of 6 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding and Predicting Systemic Corporate Distress: A Machine-Learning Approach
Ms. Burcu Hacibedel
and
Ritong Qu
In this paper, we study systemic non-financial corporate sector distress using firm-level probabilities of default (PD), covering 55 economies, and spanning the last three decades. Systemic corporate distress is identified by elevated PDs across a large portion of the firms in an economy. A machine-learning based early warning system is constructed to predict the onset of distress in one year’s time. Our results show that credit expansion, monetary policy tightening, overvalued stock prices, and debt-linked balance-sheet weaknesses predict corporate distress. We also find that systemic corporate distress events are associated with contractions in GDP and credit growth in advanced and emerging markets at different degrees and milder than financial crises.
Keywords:
Nonfinancial sector; Probability of default; Early warning systems; Macroprudential policy; balance-sheet weakness; appendix B constructing predictor; distress events; appendix C machine learning model; PD indices; Corporate sector; Banking crises; Credit; Financial statements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Technical Assistance Report-Technical Assistance Mission on External Sector Statistics (November 14-25, 2016)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), a technical-assistance mission on external-sector statistics (ESS) visited Buenos Aires on November 14–25, 2016. Currently, INDEC’s National Directorate for International Accounts (DNCI) compiles and disseminates ESS following the guidelines of the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual. The mission reviewed the ESS methodology, data sources, and dissemination policy in order to help enhance its quality and to assist compilers in migrating the methodology to the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The main data sources used to compile the current account and the capital account (excluding investment income, which is compiled along with the financial account and the IIP) are customs records, corporate surveys, the international-tourism survey, accounting information available to the public, administrative records, and information concerning the exchange balance disseminated by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). The mission found data sources and compilation procedures to be sound. Although the mission identified improvements that could add to the quality of certain estimates, the balances of the current and capital accounts are expected to remain substantially unchanged.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BCRA; investment; DNCI; corporation; enterprise; service-corporation survey; investment enterprise; land passenger-transport corporation; BCRA staff; exchange balance; aggregate data; Business enterprises; External sector statistics; Foreign assets; Foreign direct investment; International investment position
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign Ceilings “Lite”? The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies
Mr. Eduardo Borensztein
,
Mr. Patricio A Valenzuela
, and
Kevin Cowan
Although credit rating agencies have gradually moved away from a policy of never rating a private borrower above the sovereign (the "sovereign ceiling") it appears that sovereign ratings remain a significant determinant of the credit rating assigned to corporations. We examine this link using data for advanced and emerging economies over the past decade and conclude that the sovereign ratings have a significant and robust effect on private ratings even after controlling for country specific macroeconomic conditions and firm-level performance indicators. This suggests that public debt management affects the private sector through a channel that had not been previously recognized.
Keywords:
WP; private sector; sovereign rating; rating agency; retained earnings; working capital
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines a number of potential factors that may have influenced the short-term behavior of the exchange rate between the Chilean peso and the U.S. dollar during the period of floating exchange rate, including the possible impact of developments in Argentina during 2001. The paper investigates whether copper prices can be successfully forecasted over medium-term horizons, emphasizing the properties of copper prices most relevant in the Chilean context, including for fiscal policymaking. The paper also provides a snapshot of the Chilean banking and corporate sectors.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; firm; bank; chapter III; copper price; dollar rate; price shock; market interest rate differential; Metal prices; Corporate sector; Exchange rates; Futures; Commercial banks; Global; East Asia; Western Hemisphere; South Asia
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 31, Issue 12
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Corporate profitability is a source of uncertainty in a generally positive global market outlook, IMF International Capital Markets Department Head and Counsellor Gerd Häusler said at a June 12 press conference. Summarizing the findings (see charts, pages 194–95) of the IMF’s second Global Financial Stability Report, he noted that “the near-term outlook in mature markets is largely free of imminent threats, mainly because the world economy has recovered and has helped build support also for financial markets.” However, emerging markets in South America have come under recent pressure. This report is designed to “detect fault lines in global financial markets,” and a theme running through this issue is the uncertainty posed by the level and quality of corporate profits.
Keywords:
SV; IMF Treasurer's Department; growth facility; IMF staff country; IMF's website; fund Facility; Collective action clauses; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Corporate sector; Dispute resolution; Sovereign debt restructuring; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Intensive Is Competition in the Emerging Markets? An Analysis of Corporate Rates of Return from Nine Emerging Markets
Ajit Singh
,
Mr. Rudolph Matthias
, and
Mr. Jack D. Glen
This large empirical study of corporate profitability in emerging markets during the 1980s and 1990s measures the intensity of competition. Data on corporate rates of return, profit margins, and output-capital ratios reveal that the recent liberalization has been associated with reduced corporate profit margins and improved capital utilization efficiency. The paper also analyzes persistency in corporate profitability and finds that competitiveness was no less intense in developing countries than in advanced countries. Although the paper is not directly concerned with the Asian crisis, it provides evidence on important structural hypotheses about the crisis.
Keywords:
WP; liberalization firm; firm's earnings; developing country; market share; Corporate Rates of Return; Intensity of Competition; Emerging Markets; Peruvian cement company; time series; textile company; ith firm; regression coefficient; return on assets; Competition; Capital adequacy requirements; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Business enterprises; Manufacturing; East Asia