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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover The IMF’s Exceptional Access Policy
The IMF’s Exceptional Access Policy
Evaluation Report Dec 2024
Vivek B Arora
,
Miguel de Las Casas
,
Yasemin Bal Gündüz
,
Jérémie Cohen-Setton
,
Kelsie J Gentle
,
Jiakun Li
,
Carmen Rollins
, and
Sandra Saveikyte

Abstract

The evaluation assesses the EAP’s rationale, evolution, and implementation during the period since its adoption in 2002. It assesses whether the EAP has fulfilled the objectives that guided its creation, namely, shaping members’ and market expectations, providing clearer benchmarks for Board decisions on program design and exceptional access, safeguarding the Fund’s resources, and helping to ensure uniformity of treatment of members. The evaluation draws on background papers comprising both thematic and country studies that draw on experience with the 38 exceptional access programs completed through mid-2023. The thematic papers analyze the rationale and evolution of the EAP as well as the three building blocks of the policy: the exceptional access criteria, enhanced Board decision-making procedures, and ex post evaluations. The country papers comprise both cross-country studies and country-specific studies of the completed programs with Argentina (2018), Ecuador (2020), and Egypt (2020).

Keywords:
Exceptional access; IMF lending; safeguarding Fund resources; program design; uniformity of treatment; risk management; program success; EA program; surcharge rate; ToC of an Na arrangement; detailed Theory of Change; Debt sustainability; Reputational risk; Balance of payments need; Capital account crisis; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Initial Considerations For The Review Of Charges And The Surcharge Policy
International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
On October 11, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of Charges and the Surcharge Policy. The review is part of a broader ongoing effort to ensure that the IMF’s lending policies remain fit for purpose to meet the evolving needs of the membership. Charges and surcharges are important elements of the IMF’s cooperative lending and risk-management framework, where all members contribute and all can benefit from support when needed. Together, they cover lending intermediation expenses, help accumulate reserves to protect against financial risks, and provide incentives for prudent and temporary borrowing. This provides a strong financial foundation that allows the IMF to extend vital balance of payments support on affordable terms to member countries when they need it most.



Against the backdrop of a challenging economic environment and high global interest rates, the Executive Board reached consensus on a comprehensive package of reforms that substantially reduces the cost of borrowing for members while safeguarding the IMF's financial capacity to support countries in need. The approved measures will lower IMF borrowing costs by about US$1.2 billion annually or reduce payments on the margin of the rate of charge as well as surcharges on average by 36 percent. The number of countries subject to surcharges in fiscal year 2026 is expected to fall from 20 to 13.



Key reforms include a reduction in the margin for the rate of charge, an increase in the threshold for level-based surcharges, a reduction in rate for time-based surcharges, an alignment of thresholds for commitment fees with annual and cumulative access limits for GRA lending facilities, and institution of regular reviews of surcharges.



The series of three papers informed the Executive Board’s first and second informal engagements (July and September 2024) and the formal meeting (October 2024) on this review.
Keywords:
General Resources Account; Charges; Margin for the basic rate of charge; Surcharges; Commitment Fees; Precautionary Balances; Income; multilayered framework; fund arrangement; surcharge rate; intermediation cost; fund's liquidity; borrowing cost; Credit; SDR interest rate; Balance of payments need; Credit risk; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Adequacy of the Fund’s Precautionary Balances
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
On March 20, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board reviewed the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances. The review took place somewhat ahead of the standard two-year cycle, in view of the imminent attainment of the current indicative medium-term indicative target of SDR 25 billion for the first time. Precautionary balances comprise the Fund’s general and special reserves. They are a key element of the IMF’s multi-layered framework for managing financial risks. Precautionary balances provide a buffer to protect the Fund against potential losses, resulting from credit, income, and other financial risks. The review was based on the assessment framework established in 2010, which uses an indicative range for precautionary balances, linked to a forward-looking measure of total IMF non-concessional credit, to guide decisions on adjusting the medium-term target over time. While financial risks remain high, they are broadly unchanged from the last review, taking into account the further accumulation of reserves and strengthening of some risk mitigants. Against this background, Executive Directors broadly supported staff’s proposal to retain the current medium-term target of SDR 25 billion and increase the minimum floor from SDR 15 billion to SDR 20 billion. The Board also supported maintaining the biennial review cycle, with earlier reviews if warranted by developments that could materially affect the adequacy of precautionary balances.
Keywords:
Non-concessionary; Lending; Risks; Reserves; Credit; Mitigation; Provisioning; management framework; income risk; concentration risk; Fund credit; I. financial risks; demand scenario; lending portfolio; Credit risk; Income; Capital adequacy requirements; Market risk; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review Of The Adequacy Of The Fund’s Precautionary Balances
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
On December 12, 2022, the IMF’s Executive Board reviewed the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances. The review took place on the standard two-year cycle, after an interim review in December 2021. Precautionary balances comprise the Fund’s general and special reserves. They are a key element of the IMF’s multi-layered framework for managing financial risks. Precautionary balances provide a buffer to protect the Fund against potential losses, resulting from credit, income, and other financial risks. In conducting the review, the Executive Board applied the rules-based framework agreed in 2010. Precautionary balances have risen further since the 2021 interim review and coverage metrics have strengthened. At the same, credit and other financial risks have also increased. The pace of reserve accumulation is expected to remain adequate. Against this background, Executive Directors endorsed staff’s proposal to retain the current medium-term target of SDR 25 billion and the minimum floor of SDR 15 billion. The Board also discussed the role of surcharges, which are primarily a component of the Fund’s risk management framework but also contribute to reserves accumulation.
Keywords:
concentration risk; D. financial risks; risk management framework; Fund credit; transparency policy; fund financial risks; Income; Credit; Credit risk; Credit ratings; Emergency assistance; Global; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere
Cover Policy Papers
Interim Review of The Adequacy of The Fund’s Precautionary Balances
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Precautionary balances are a key element of the Fund’s multilayered framework to mitigate financial risks. Overall financial risks remain elevated but have not increased significantly since the last review. Staff proposes to leave the medium-term target of SDR 25 billion, and the minimum floor of SDR 15 billion, unchanged at this time. With the projected increase in lending income, the pace of reserve accumulation is expected to remain adequate relative to the medium-term indicative target. The paper also reviews policy factors discussed in recent Board meetings that affect the level and accumulation of reserves.
Keywords:
risk management framework; transparency policy; D. financial risks; income volatility; totaling SDR; Income; Credit; Credit risk; Pension spending; COVID-19; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Adequacy of the Fund’s Precautionary Balances
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
On October 30, 2020, the IMF’s Executive Board reviewed the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances. Precautionary balances, comprising the Fund’s general and special reserves and the Special Contingent Account (SCA-1), are one element of the IMF’s multi-layered framework for managing financial risks. These balances provide a buffer to protect the Fund against potential losses, resulting from credit, income, and other financial risks. This review of the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances took place on the standard two-year cycle, although it was delayed by a few months to allow for an assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Fund financial risks. In conducting the review, the Executive Board applied the rules-based framework agreed in 2010.
Keywords:
PP; precautionary balance; fund credit; multilayered framework; income risk; lending portfolio
Cover IMF Working Papers
News-based Sentiment Indicators
Chengyu Huang
,
Sean Simpson
,
Daria Ulybina
, and
Agustin Roitman
We construct sentiment indices for 20 countries from 1980 to 2019. Relying on computational text analysis, we capture specific language like “fear”, “risk”, “hedging”, “opinion”, and, “crisis”, as well as “positive” and “negative” sentiments, in news articles from the Financial Times. We assess the performance of our sentiment indices as “news-based” early warning indicators (EWIs) for financial crises. We find that sentiment indices spike and/or trend up ahead of financial crises.
Keywords:
WP; sentiment index; crisis sentiment; seed words; sentiment indices; term cluster; word vector representation; word-vector models; early warning indicators; risk; crisis; sentiment; financial crises; vector representation; Early warning systems; Hedging; Banking crises; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover Global Financial Stability Report, October 2018
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2018
A Decade after the Global Financial Crisis: Are We Safer?
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

In the 10 years since the global financial crisis, regulatory frameworks have been enhanced and the banking system has become stronger, but new vulnerabilities have emerged, and the resilience of the global financial system has yet to be tested.

Keywords:
GFSR; financial condition; market liquidity; emerging market economy; IMF executive board discussion summary; risk; a number of emerging market economies; debt vulnerability; foreign exchange; inflation surprise; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial sector stability; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Bank resolution framework; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Middle East; financial system; commercial paper; FSAP risk analysis finding; volatility Index; U.S. dollar; international community; Systemic risk; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks
Thordur Jonasson
and
Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou
This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; exchange rate risk; debt manager; Public Debt Management; Financial Risk; Foreign Exchange Hedging; Government Securities Markets; foreign currency; short-term debt; debt portfolio; borrowing cost; portfolio risk; bond issue; Government debt management; Debt management; Bonds; Credit risk; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial Sector Stability-Technical Note
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper provides technical analysis and detailed information underpinning the Financial Sector Assessment Program in Argentina. The implementation of stress tests is conceptually challenging in the Argentinean context, and the results must be interpreted with a high degree of caution. The stress tests examined the resilience of the Argentine banking system to solvency, liquidity, and contagion risks. These tests suggest that most banks are in a position to withstand substantial levels of stress while still phasing in capital requirements under Basel II, and credit risk is the most important vulnerability. Banks appeared resilient to market risk but less so to sovereign risks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank loss; banking system; a number of bank; bank portfolio; bank capitalization; money market; la República Argentina; bank solvency stress tests; credit loss; bank solvency stress test result; Stress testing; Commercial banks; Liquidity stress testing; Insurance companies; Real interest rates; Global